MLB DFS

Thought on Pitching, 7/14

Allow me to introduce myself.  The name’s Mike Alexander, aka Roto-Wan Kenobi.  Sean of Lineup Logic has invited me to share my thoughts on pitching.  I’ll try to mix up some deeper stats, trends, and even a little bit of the Force to deliver you solid pitching options.  Tonight has three top options and a bunch of delay concerns, so it’ll be interesting.  As always, rankings out of 100, based on price and possible output.

James Paxton @ CWS: (95) The White Sox kill left handed pitching, right?  Not so fast.  Check their last few times facing a lefty.  Freeland almost no hit them and J Montgomery went 7 IP/8 Ks/1 ER.  There’s an opportunity to roster him tonight at lower ownership if the DFS herd doesn’t look deeper.  Paxton has looked sharp, with plenty of Ks (14.5 SwStr% the last month).

Jacob DeGrom v COL: (95) Rockies away is a well-used target and DeGrom has been mostly a horse this year.  The chance of a delay here is the only thing keeping me from going 100.  Pitcher’s park and one of the night’s best K upside.

Carlos Carrasco @ OAK: (95) DraftKing’s most expensive pitcher tonight, in part due to his opponent.  The A’s have struck out above 25% this year!  There’s a tiny voice in my head saying to be careful here, the A’s can go off on occasion and Carrasco blows up on occasion.  I don’t know, it just seems too easy.  Maybe a chance to pivot away from the crowd, though not without risk.

Jon Gray (90) @ NYM: The Mets stink at home (.738 home OPS vs RHP) and Gray will enjoy trading Colorado’s thin air for the spacious Citifield.  He should be ready to roll after the break and induced a 15.7 SwStr% in his last road start.

Justin Verlander v TOR: (85) It’s been a Jekyll/Hyde type season with Verlander, but the Ks have been there when he’s right.  Not many people want to roster him these days so low ownership in GPPs could lead to a big win if he goes deep.  The Jays have been better, but on the offense is down year (.316 OBP).

Dan Straily v LAD: (85) Straily rolls at home (.260 home wOBA) and the Dodgers are coming cross country.  They‘re still solid on the road, but a hair worse.  He’s mainly a chance for salary relief and a line that won’t hurt you.

Johnny Cueto @ SD: (80) It’s been a lost season for Cueto, but coming out of the break against the Padres JV squad (26.1 K%) is the spot to use him if you’ve been trying to roster him.  Strictly a GPP dart.

Gerrit Cole v STL: (80) The Ks haven’t been where they need to be lately and the Cardinals have a contact approach.

Jake Faria @ LAA: (80) His price has gone up and he’s on the road.  I’m still waiting for the other shoe to drop for Faria since he’s been living in the zone.  Mike Trout is also back tonight.  I’m off Faria.

Jose Berrios @ HOU: (80) I like to throw in a wild card GPP play and Berrios has that written all over him tonight.  No one is rostering him against the Astros offense that has been a machine.  I’m taking a shot at them coming out of the break a little sluggish since half the team attended the ASG.  Berrios breaking stuff is some of the best around, so he can go HAM any night.  Don’t go nuts here though.

Follow Roto-Wan @MIFFsPod

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