Pitching Thoughts 7/17

It’s been an interesting restart out of the All-Star Break with plenty of offense and almost all of the Aces going over the weekend.  The Rockies are starting a home stand versus Padres pitching at Coors field, which means we’ll have to pay down at pitcher to afford the bats going there.  There’s no easy picks throwing tonight, so let’s dive in and get an edge. As always, rankings out of 100, based on price and possible output.

Jon Lester @ ATL: (95) If you want nothing to do with Lester tonight I get it.  Not making it out of the first inning in your last will do that.  Maybe there’s an arm issue here and the same thing could happen tonight.  I’m willing to take the risk though.  Lester is tough against left handed hitters (.196 AVG) and that’s where the Braves offense comes from.  Lester’s the guy that can win your GPP tonight.

Lance McCullers v SEA: (90) I’m split on McCullers tonight.  He has the ability to spin a gem, but has also struggled the last couple times out.  The Mariners offense is similar in that they can score a bunch of runs but also go cold at times.  No other pitcher can match his strikeout potential (10.4 K/9) so he’s a fine cash game play.  I think his ownership will be too high for a tournament lineup, though.

Marcus Stroman @ BOS: (90) I like Stroman tonight, but he’s a hair worse on the road.  Boston is a capable lineup with some good righties and Stroman has reverse splits (.454 SLG vs RHB).  His price is stomachable and there aren’t many other options.

Jason Vargas v DET: (90) Yet another 8K pitcher, Vargas has been useful at home this year.  The Tigers hit lefties well, but aren’t as good on the road.  Vargas has had reverse splits this year (.332/.274 L/R wOBA) so there’s a lot of moving parts that people might miss on.  I’m intrigued for tournaments.

Adalberto Mejia @ MIN: (90) Mejia’s my top pay down tonight.  He’s got the breaking stuff clicking lately and it’s equaled nice results. The Yankees hot start is also history, they have a wRC+ of 45 vs LHP the last month.

Adam Wainwright @ NYM: (85) I’m not a Waino guy, but he’s definitely had his moments lately with plenty of lines over 20 points.  He’s also posted his fair share of double digit minuses.  I’ve made of habit of targeting the Mets at home (90 home wRC+ through June) but they’re as hot as any team right now with a 137 wRC+ in July.  I’d pass on him tonight.

Eduardo Rodriguez v TOR: (85) If ERod can pick up where he left off before hitting the DL, he’ll be a useful pitcher.  Toronto hasn’t been that good this year, but are slowly turning it around.  Not sure I want to take the risk of a guy coming off the DL.

German Marquez v SD: (80) Somethings gotta give in this match up tonight.  The Padres are a top target for pitching, but it’s in Coors.  I’d give a slight advantage to Marquez due to his K upside (9 Ks against them in the last game, thought in Petco Park).

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Categories: MLB DFS

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