Pitching Thoughts 7/18

It’s a Kershaw night, so not much to analyze at the top.  There are, however, some interesting pay downs to pair with him.  As always, ratings out of 100, based on price and potential output.

Clayton Kershaw @ CWS: (100) You just can’t compete without him.  Once in a while he goes under 2x value, but it’s not often.  His few early season blips are long forgotten.  There’s a chance his ownership isn’t sky high like usual as there’s a Coors game.

Blake Snell @ OAK: (95) The A’s undisciplined approach (25.6% K-rate) is a dream match up for Snell and his wild ways (38% Zone%).  A high pitch count is about the only thing I’m worried about here.  He also has a good shot at getting the win if he goes five innings.

Robbie Ray @ CIN: (90) I’m a big Robbie Ray guy. but I don’t love him as much as some in this spot tonight.  The Reds are dangerous at home for a LHP and things can get out of hand fast in the Great American Smallpark.  On top of that Ray has yet finish a seventh inning since his complete game on May 30.  He might be too expensive tonight when you have to pay up for Kershaw.  Pairing the two will be rare, so if you can stomach the bats that could be a route to go.

Adam Conley v PHI: (90) This is a big spot for Conley as he’s been out of favor in Miami this year, spending most of the season at Triple A.  The Phillies are really bad vs LHP on the road (66 wRC+).  He’s always been a wild card, but makes for an intriguing GPP play that has nice K upside.  I never mind betting on the guy fighting for his life.

Ivan Nova v MIL: (85) Nova has got to be glad to be home.  Spacious PNC Park let’s him do his thing and pitch to contact.  Not much of a ceiling, but a safe cash game play to pair with Kershaw.

Sean Newcomb v CHC: (85) He’s in a dangerous spot against a rallying Cubs offense, but I have some interest for the strikeouts and low ownership.  Sometimes you have to zig just for the hell of it when most people zag.

Brad Peacock v SEA: (80) Much of Peacock’s success lately has come against the strikeout prone Rangers and Athletics.  While the Mariners do strikeout about league average, they are a better offense than those two teams.  Too much risk here for me at his current price.

Michael Wacha @ NYM: (80) I worry about Wacha coming off a long layoff.  The Mets have also come out of the break hot and offer plenty of LHBs.  Then again, Mets at home.

Follow Roto-Wan @MIFFsPod.

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