I made it home, just in time for dinner and DFS.
Stud Stack: High Price, High +EV
LAD, Opp: Bartolo Colon
This will be a pretty chalky stack, as it should be, Bartolo is staring down retirement, the best offense in the league and possibly his own mortality as he takes the bump tonight. His numbers agaisnt LHB all year long have been his biggest issue, allowing 36% HC rate to the southpaw swatters. The Dodgers, we know, are one of baseball’s best teams against RHP with a 37% HC rate and some of the league’s best lefties.
Stackable: Utley, Seager, Bellinger, Turner, Pederson, Grandal
The elite plays are obvious here— Seager and Bellinger. And the world knows Justin Turner is the king of the Wildlings, but he also smashes RHB. Utley offers the salary relief in the leadoff spot that people need and
If you can only afford one it’s Bellinger, with a 371 ISO against RHP, and a 156 WRC+. That said, if you want some lower owned targets, I would look at Puig and Pederson, who own matching WOBAs at 360 and WRC+ of 125 against RHP.
Grout Stack: Reasonably Priced, +EV
BAL, OPP: Blake Snell
Snell is a friend of the pod. He had his moment in the sun but I’m turning my back on him today. The Orioles are heating up and Snell has struggled in his batted ball metrics of late. Giving up 38% HC to RHB, with the slate’s highest batted ball distance, 241 ft, and exit velocity, 96 MPH, in the last 2 starts. Yikes. Even with this game in the Trop, the O’s should be able to take advantage of Snell and get to the Rays’ bullpen.
Stackable: Jones, Schoop, Machado, Trumbo, Mancini, Castillo
Jon Schoop is an animal, the 2nd baseman is out hitting every other Oriole on the roster by significant margins. The gap is most notable, however, against LHP. Schoop owns a 305 ISO against lefties and a 396 WOBA.
The other obvious names are Adam Jones, Manny Machado and Mark Trumbo, but I would be willing to roster Trey Mancini and Wellington Castillo as high upside pivots to Trumbo or Jones.
The one thing we have to reconcile is that Tropicana Field will be about 20 degrees cooler than Camden was over the weekend. That’s a real thing, that may push me towards Texas.
TEX, OPP: Adam Conley
Conley can’t strike out right handers he has almost matching walk and K rate and gives up 37% HC to those bats. Today in Arlington it will be north of 90 degrees. The best weather on the slate for hitters, Vegas has accounted for this and the total reflects that.
Stackable: Chirinos, Napoli, Beltre, Andrus, Gomez
The foundational piece that will find it’s way into a huge number of cash game lineups is Mike Napoli. He’s been on a tear and smashing LHP in the past month. With the team’s highest ISO and WOBA against LHP, as well as HC rate. Right behind him though righties Carlos Gomez, Robinson Chirinos and Adiran Beltre. Chirios has a 48% HC rate and Gomez and Beltre both clock in at 38%. That said, salary relief lies in Delino Deshields and Elvis Andrus, two inexpensive righties who lack pop but allow you to stack other bats.
Leverage Stacks: High Risk, Low ownership
Oakland, Opp: Frankie Liriano
Frankie Liriano is not right but this team is broken and they have no choice but to throw him out there. There are too many inexpensive righties at the top of the Oakland order, and a Toronto roster that is underpriced against Liriano who has struggled all year.
Look towards both Davis’s Rajai and Khris, as well as Semien and Healy…There’s too much value there.
New York Mets, OPP: Clayton Richard
In the last 30 days, the New York Mets are the hardest hitting team in baseball agaisnt Left Handed pitching. You may expect that from an order stacked with righties, but these guys have been excellent accoridng to the batted ball data. Clayton Richard is getting ahnilated by RHB, with a 38% hc rate and woba approaching 400. I’m going stratight after Asdrubal Cabrera, Wilmer Flores and Yo Cespedes. Travis D’Arnaud is also in play as he is quietly one of the teams better lefty mashers.