Pitching Thoughts 7/24

Not many big names going tonight, so I’m looking to pay up for pitching.  As always, ratings out of 100 based on price and potential output.

Jacob deGrom @ SD: (100) deGrom is above 13K on DraftKings tonight for a reason.  He’s pitching at a Cy Young level since an early season hiccup.  Despite some recent success, I still think the Padres are a garbage offense.  You may get double digit Ks here tonight.

Zack Greinke v ATL: (95) He got roughed up in Cincy last time out, but that happens with Greinke from time to time.  He’s been solid at home this year, while limiting lefties to a .248 home wOBA and the lefties are who you have to worry about with Atlanta.  The Braves offense has gone ice cold the last month as well (.646 OPS the last 30 days).

Justin Verlander v KC: (95) Verlander just dominated this Royals team on the road.  I expect more of the same tonight as KC’s offense is just not very powerful.  The 8 Ks are particularly impressive versus a lineup that wants to put the ball in play.  Keep in mind this may be an audition for a contender, so JV has extra motivation to be sharp.

James Paxton v BOS: (90) I love me some Big Maple, but he could be a tad too chalky tonight after what he did to the leagues best offense.  The Red Sox are above average against LHP, as well, and they don’t strikeout (14% K-rate vs LHP last 30 days).

Josh Tomlin v CIN: (90) The cutter has been extremely effective for Tomlin in his last two starts.  I put a lot of stock into riding a pitcher when he has a feel for a secondary pitch.  The Reds are mediocre vs RHP (91 wRC+ the last 30 days) and can struggle on the road.

Brad Peacock @ PHI: (85) Peacock has been on a roll the last month, going 5+ innings and averaging 10 K/9.  I think the strikeouts are legit, but think the overall results are a hot streak.  The Phillies suddenly have a pulse, posting a top 10 wRC+ of 111 the last two weeks.  This just feels like a trap to me.  Then again it’s the Phillies.

Hyun-Jin Ryu v MIN: (85) The Twins offense has fallen off a cliff lately (68 wRC+ vs LHP last 30 days).  They have power righties, but Ryu has reverse splits this season.  There downside here is that he’ll likely only be allowed to go 5 innings coming off the DL.

Blake Snell  v BAL: (80) Raise your hand if you got burned by Snell his last time out in Oakland.  Come on. put them up, it was most of us.  That plus strikeout potential are basically why I’d take a shot on him tonight.  The Oriole’s are not the same offense this year either.

Follow Roto-Wan @MIFFsPod.

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