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Slate Breakdown – Friday 7/28/17

What’s up lineup logic listeners? This week I’m back with something a little different. The past couple of weeks I’ve posted articles pertaining to strategy, but this week I’m going to break down the slate game by game. It’s a 15 game slate and a lot to look at so let’s get into it!

COL @ WAS – 7:05ET

German Marquez $6,500 (4.20 ERA) vs Tanner Roark $7,700 (4.83 ERA)

Pitching

German Marquez – Not touching him. You never know when the Nationals will hit back-to-back-to-back home runs.

Tanner Roark – He is interesting at this price. We all saw what he did to Milwaukee in his last start. That said, Milwaukee strikes out more than any other team in the league. I just don’t trust the Rockies outside of Coors.

Batting

Rockies – Not going there. I will be completely fading them tonight.

Nationals – I never get them right. All of them have the potential to hit it out of the park, but they are so expensive and so hit or miss, literally. If I HAD to choose, I’d take a look at Brian Goodwin at $3,200, Adam Lind at $2,600 (if he plays) and I always feel comfortable picking Anthony Rendon at $3,700.

TAM @ NYY – 7:05ET

Austin Pruitt $5,500 (6.25 ERA) vs Masahiro Tanaka $8,600 (5.37 ERA)

Pitching

I really just don’t want to go there with these two. Masher Tanaka is a no. Austin Pruitt is a HELL NO! WHAT ARE YOU THINKING???

Batting

Tampa Bay

Lucas Duda ($3,300) – I think Duda could be interesting here if he starts. Power lefty who will go low owned and wants to prove himself to his new team.

Logan Morrison ($3,300) – I put Logan Morrison in the same boat here. He’s a power lefty who wants to keep his job.

Steven Souza ($3,800) – I like Souza because he always has home run potential, but I don’t want to spend $3,800 for a guy who is the same price with lower upside than George Springer

Corey Dickerson ($2,800) – He hit a homer last night and could do the same tonight. He’s just too cheap to completely fade.

Mallex Smith ($3,200) – Only like him if he’s batting in the top of the order. Always has stolen base upside. Could be sneaky in a stack with Corey Dickerson.

Yankees

Didi Gregarious ($3,900) – Love the upside, hate the price. Only play him if I have excess salary.

Aaron Judge ($4,900) – Price spiked along with the other Yankees players. Could double dong on any night, but too rich for my blood.

Clint Frazier ($2,700) – Priced well. Will definitely use him if looking for Yankees stack.

ATL @ PHI – 7:05ET

Julio Teheran $7,800 (4.67 ERA)vs Jeremy Hellickson $6,700 (4.73 ERA)

Pitching

Julio Teheran – I almost want to take a flier on him just because he’s playing against the Phillies. He has gotten a quality start in each of his last 4 games and has averaged 37.5 FDP over that span. I just can’t do it with the way the Phills have been playing lately. If you want to take a risk, I bet he’ll be owned under 1%.

Jeremy Hellickson – Haha. Really? You need MY input for this one? Do not play him.

Batting

Atlanta

Kurt Suzuki ($2,500) – I love this guy! He has been consistently putting up big numbers. One of my favorite sleeper catchers on the slate.

Matt Adams ($2,800) – Smashes righties. Great play!

Freddie Freeman ($3,800) – Will be pairing him with Matt Adams in a bunch of lineups. Huge home run potential on any given night.

Johan Camargo ($3,000) – Will go low owned and has been fairly consistent so far.

Matt Kemp ($2,800) – Bats 0.321 Away vs Righties. Yes please!

Phillies – I just never know who to stack on the Phillies. Nick Williams and Freddy Galvis are interesting to me, but will most likely stick to a team I’m more confident with.

LAA @ TOR – 7:05ET

Parker Bridwell $7,500 (3.09 ERA) vs J.A. Happ $6,900 (4.12 ERA)

Pitching

Parker Bridwell – This may be the contrarian in me talking, but I want to give him a shot. Toronto has been hot and cold recently and this might be a nice little pick. I could see him getting you 30-40 FDP tonight. Somehow the Angels pitchers always do better than expected. I’m by no means saying that he’s a great choice, but take a shot on him if you’re feeling lucky.

J.A. Happ – He’s been terrible as of late. I’m not risking a lefty against a Angels team loaded with righties.

Batting

Angels – Same feeling as Phillies in the sense that I never know who to stack.

Andrelton Simmons ($3,300) – Hitting well recently. Will play if trying to stack the Angels.

Mike Trout ($4,900) – Has the potential to go off any given night. I just hate playing the Angels.

Albert Pujols ($2,800) – Like him in an Angels stack, but would rather take Matt Adams at this price.

Toronto

Justin Smoak ($3,700) – I think he is a good play here. Good play, not great.

Kendrys Morales ($3,200) – He’s coming off a 2 homer game. I could see another one here. Good play for the price.

Josh Donaldson ($3,600) – He’s starting to hit his stride again with a home run yesterday. Must have in Toronto stack.

Ezequiel Carrera ($2,300) – One of the best values on the board if he’s starting.

HOU @ DET – 7:10PM ET

Dallas Keuchel $10,500 (1.67 ERA) vs Jordan Zimmerman $6,600 (5.81 ERA)

Pitching

Dallas Keuchel – They’re saying he’ll be on a pitch count. He threw around 60 pitches in his last rehab start. I’m not going to take a chance on this. Strongly fading.

Jordan Zimmerman – Refer to Jeremy Hellickson and add “OH HELL NO!”

Batting

Houston

Brian McCann ($2,800) – I love him if he starts.

Yuli Gurriel ($3,300) – They still haven’t gotten his price right. Amazing value here against a bad pitcher.

Jose Altuve ($4,500) – I think the price will drive a few away, but he will still be heavily owned. Obviously good at any price

Marwin Gonzalez ($3,900) – Don’t question it. Just play him.

Detroit – Not even going to go there. Do not play them tonight.

CIN @ MIA – 7:10ET

Sal Romano $5,800 (5.50 ERA) vs Vance Worley $5,500 (6.37 ERA)

Pitching

Sal Romano – Could be a very interesting play. Could also be the performance that makes you tweet at him in anger. He’s the best option under 6k, but that also means that you’re picking a pitcher under 6k.

Vance Worely – Cincinnati has been in a rut. Cincinnati will no longer be in said rut.

Batting

Cincinnati 

Joey Votto ($3,700) – Price has dropped and is going up against Vance Worley. Don’t worry, I’ve never heard of the guy either, but his stats don’t make him look like a competent pitcher by any means.

Scooter Gennett ($3,100) – One of my favorite cheap plays of the night. Dude has 18 home runs and he’s looking to make it 19 or 20 tonight.

Miami – you can really go with anybody in the top 5 and feel comfortable. Not as excited about them as I am other stacks.

KAN @ BOS – 7:10ET

Jason Vargas $7,600 (3.08 ERA) vs David Price $9,500 (3.82 ERA)

Pitching

Jason Vargas – I really really want to play Vargas here. He has been playing like absolute garbage, but so have the Red Sox. I think he’s worth a play in a GPP.

David Price – I don’t trust that he’ll give me more than 6 innings and a quality start. I can’t justify paying $9,500 for him.

Batting

Kansas

Salvador Perez ($3,200) – Doesn’t need much of an explanation. He’s always a top option at catcher.

Eric Hosmer ($3,500) – YES! I love Hosmer tonight. I think he will be under-owned due to the fact he’s going up against a good LHP, but he bats 0.446 away against lefties. What a steal!

Whit Merrifield ($3,600) – I’m not expecting a HR from him tonight, but you can always count on base hits and RBIs.

Mike Moustakas ($3,700) – Another guy who bats better away vs lefties. 0.325 batting average to be exact. A stack with Hosmer and Moustakas might just set you apart from the rest of the pack.

Jorge Bonifacio ($3,400) – He’s been so hot lately. No need to turn your back on him now.

Boston – I’m just not really interested in Boston bats tonight. They could prove me wrong, but I like a team with HR upside and they just don’t have it.

BAL @ TEX – 8:05ET

Chris Tillman $6,300 (7.01 ERA) vs Andrew Cashner $6,700 (3.64 ERA)

Pitching

Chris Tillman – EWWW! Picking an Orioles pitcher gives me nightmares. There are rare cases in which I’ll roster a Baltimore pitcher and this isn’t one of them. Let’s just say he’s no Kevin Gausman.

Andrew Cashner – I picked him once and now he’s dead to me. You can do what you want, but I have a strong bias against this bearded behemoth.

Batting

Baltimore – I am not playing the Orioles tonight. I will probably regret it and they’ll put up like 10 runs, but I’m not going there. For those of you who are, I think Chris Davis, Adam Jones and Mark Trumbo will be the ones to screw me over tonight.

Texas

Roughned Odor ($3,000) – He will probably be really chalky which makes me not as interested, but has a great matchup and he is starting become a solid option once again.

Elvis Andrus  ($3,000) – One of my favorite SS options tonight. Will probably be highly owned.

Shin-soo Choo ($3,500) – Good option. Expecting around 15 FDP from him tonight.

Nomar Mazara ($3,100) – Tonight is his night. Expecting big things from him.

CLE @ CWS – 8:10ET

Danny Salazar $8,200 (4.79 ERA) vs Derek Holland $6,300 (5.12 ERA)

Pitching

Danny Salazar – I love Salazar in this spot. One of my favorites on the slate. I like his strikeout rate and like the matchup. I obviously can’t promise anything, but I believe this is a great spot for him tonight.

Derek Holland – I have never and will never play a White Sox pitcher who isn’t named Jose Quintana….oh wait.

Batting

Cleveland

Jose Ramirez ($3,600) – I just love playing this guy. He could have a very solid outing against a bad pitcher.

Francisco Lindor ($3,900) – He’s so expensive, but I love him here so much! I’ll probably take a shot at him in at least a couple GPPs.

White Sox – Not getting near them tonight against one of my favorite pitching options. They could hit a couple of HRs, but pick them at your own risk.

CHI @ MIL – 8:10ET

Jose Quintana $8,700 (4.22 ERA) vs Brent Suter $6,800 (2.84 ERA)

Pitching

Jose Quintana – Speaking of Jose Quintana, he’s grown from a Sock to a Cub. Drastic transition and even more drastic results. His strikeouts have been more consistent since moving to the other side of town and I like him here. Milwaukee has the highest strikeout rate of any team, but always has a chance of scoring a ton of runs. Regardless, he’s one of my favorite plays tonight.

Brent Suter – He hasn’t proven himself enough and is going against a Cubs team that has won 8 of their last 10. Not interested.

Batting

Chicago – I can never pinpoint who is going to hit the ball against lefties. If I had to choose, I would take Javier Baez, Albert Almora and Addison Russell. I would want to take righties who will be very low owned with high upside. These are my dudes.

Milwaukee – They will be very low owned and could be super sneaky, but I’m not interested. I would like Domingo Santana, Jesus Aguilar and Ryan Braun in a GPP.

ARI @ STL – 8:15ET

Robbie Ray $9,200 (3.15 ERA) vs Michael Wacha $8,300 (3.93 ERA)

Pitching

Robbie Ray – He’s interesting here. I’m willing to take a chance on him in GPPs because I believe he will be one of the lower owned high priced options.

Michael Wacha – I just can’t trust a mediocre pitcher against an offense like Arizona.

Batting

Arizona

Jake Lamb ($3,900) – Interesting option. I think he has a solid outing after his past few duds.

David Peralta ($3,300) – Pretty cheap and usually batting 1st. He could have a solid game at low ownership.

St. Louis – I can’t trust these guys enough to hit the ball. Robbie Ray scares me off them tonight.

MIN @ OAK – 10:05ET

Jaime Garcia $7,400 (4.30 ERA) vs Daniel Gossett $6,900 (5.40 ERA)

Pitching

Jaime Garcia – I like him quite a bit here. This will be his first start for the Twins after being traded from the Braves. He gets the opportunity to show that the Braves made a mistake by going up against the Oakland A’s. The A’s have been striking out nearly as much as the Brewers this season and I think Jaime will rack up 7 or 8 against them in this start. Love him for the price and ownership leverage.

Daniel Gusset – The Twins have struggled lately, but I have a feeling he’ll get blown up in this spot.

Batting

 Minnesota – I’m going to wait until they get out of this slump before taking a shot on any of them.

Oakland

Khris Davis ($3,800) – Not super interested, but has huge HR upside.

Rajai Davis ($2,700) – Hits lefties well and steals a lot of bases. Low ownership guaranteed.

Ryon Healy ($2,400) – I actually love him in this spot. Way too cheap and his splits against lefties are insane!

NYM @ SEA – 10:10ET

Rafael Montero (5.19 ERA) vs Ariel Miranda (4.30 ERA)

Pitching

Rafael Montero – Lots of strikeout upside that doesn’t outweigh the probability of him giving up 5+ runs.

Ariel Miranda – The Mets have too many good batters and Miranda doesn’t have enough K upside.

Batting

New York Mets – Might be interested in the righties in this one, but I hate playing the Mets against a LHP.

Seattle

Nelson Cruz ($3,500) – Besides the fact that he bats 0.301 at home vs RHP, he only cost $3,500. ARE YOU KIDDING ME? That is way too cheap for an elite bat like Cruz

Robinson Cano ($3,200) – Again with the discounts? Great price for a guy with this much upside. He smashes the four seam fastball with a batting average of 0.346 and guess what pitch Montero throws the most? You guessed it! The four seamer, giving up an average of 0.326.

Kyle Seager ($3,400) – I want to start out by saying that I am not in love with Seager on this slate. He has a great matchup, but his price is too high compared to the other players. I would much rather pay $100 more for a player like Justin Turner, but he is the best choice at $3,400 and below.

PIT @ SDP – 10:10ET

Chad Kuhl $6,100 (4.92 ERA) vs Travis Wood $5,500 (6.91 ERA)

Pitching

Chad Kuhl – The Padres have been hitting surprisingly well, so I don’t want to risk them blowing up another pitcher.

Travis Wood – My pitcher of choice tonight…to stack against. I’ve never played baseball outside of catch with friends and I would be a better starting option. If you play him, you’re dead to me.

Batting

Pittsburg – Finally get to talk about the Pirates! They are facing an awful pitcher in Travis Wood and they are my favorite stack tonight.

Andrew McCutchen ($3,800) – Will be playing him in the majority of my lineups. He’s in too good of a position to pass up.

David Freese ($3,300) – Amazing splits vs lefties and he gets to face a garbage lefty tonight. He’s my Pick2Click tonight.

Jose Osuna ($2,500) – Incredible value play tonight. He will be in the same boat as McCutchen in most of my lineups.

San Diego Padres – Don’t want to try to guess when it comes to this team. Manuel Margot might be good, but I don’t want to stack this team.

SFG @ LOS – 10:10ET

Matt Moore $7,500 (5.82 ERA) vs Alex Wood $10,000 (2.17 ERA)

Pitching

Matt Moore – Not even if he was playing against the Phillies.

Alex Wood – By far the best option on the slate in my opinion. He could easily hit 60 points, but he will be very chalky. I’m guessing ownership around 25% in GPPs.

Batting

San Francisco – I refuse to play any bats against Alex Wood. He’s just way too good!

Dodgers

Corey Seager ($3,500) – Love him tonight and think he’ll be lower owned against a lefty.

Justin Turner ($3,500) – Obvious reasons. He’s too good and too cheap.

Chris Taylor ($4,100) – He’s a little expensive, but my favorite Dodger tonight.

Yasiel Puig ($2,800) – Low priced option to pair with Chris Taylor and the rest of the gang.

Now that we’ve broken down the slate, let’s build a couple of lineups to get a feel for some options we have.

Lineup 1:

P: Danny Salazar $8,200

C: Brian McCann $2,800

1B: Joey Votto $3,700

2B: Scooter Gennett $3,100

3B: David Freese $3,300

SS: Marwin Gonzalez $3,900

OF: Andrew McCutchen $3,800
OF: Jose Osuna $2,500
OF: Adam Duvall $3,600

Total: $34,900

Lineup 2:

P: Jaime Garcia $7,400

C: Brian McCann $2,800

1B: Matt Adams $2,800

2B: Jose Altuve $4,500

3B: Freddie Freeman $3,800

SS: Marwin Gonzalez $3,900

OF: Andrew McCutchen $3,800
OF: Jose Osuna $2,500
OF: Starling Marte $3,500

Total: $35,000

That’s it for me this week. Let me know on Twitter if this article helped you out on tonights slate. I appreciate everybody who took the time to read this and let’s win some money!

Twitter @joejberg

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