MLB DFS

Slate Breakdown Saturday 7/29/17

Hey Lineup Logic crew! I’m back again today to give you a breakdown of tonights 10 game slate.

ATL @ PHI – 7:05ET

Pitching

Sean Newcomb $7,400 – I want to like him here. I think that people will be all over the Phillies after their performance last night, but I’m leaning more towards Newcomb in this situation. We need to remember how much the Phillies strikeout, but at the same time we need to be wary of their recent performance. I’ll probably take him as a very low owned punt option in a GPP.

Jerad Eickhoff $7,300 – I’m not messing with Eickhoff tonight. Atlanta has too many good hitters for me to take a risk on Eickhoff.

Bats

Atlanta

Kurt Suzuki $2,500 – Hits homers like a madman and always goes under-owned. Like him again tonight.

Matt Adams $2,800 – Everybody knows Matt Adams smashes righties. He’ll look to do that tonight.

Freddie Freeman $3,900 – Freeman is one of my favorite guys to play on any given night. He can always go out and have a huge game.

Ender Inciarte $3,000 – I just really like this price. Inciarte is really consistent and a good guy to have in your stack.

PhillyNot really interested in the Phillies. I could be wrong, but I think they are going to go back to being themselves tonight.

COL @ WAS – 7:05ET

Pitching

German Marquez $6,500 –  A righty vs Washington, no thanks. Although he has performed well recently, I’m not going to take a shot at this very risky play.

Tanner Roark $7,700 – I liked Tanner Roark yesterday and I still think he’s a decent option today. I don’t like him as much because I dug a little deeper into Colorado’s statistics, but I still think he could be a sneaky GPP option. I think he will get about 7 strikeouts through 6 innings with 3-4 errors. Whether or not you decide to pick him should be decided by whether or not you think he will get a quality start.

Bats

Colorado

Charlie Blackmon $4,200 – He’s just an animal. Justin Turner’s long lost brother can easily knock one out of the park tonight.

Gerardo Parra $3,500 – Has been an absolute force for the Rockies. If I were to stack Colorado, I’d definitely have Parra in my line.

Raimel Tapia $2,900 – Lefty who hits righties. No need for explanation.

Washington

Ryan Zimmerman $3,700 – He’s just a great overall player. Had a slump for a few games, but he looks like he’s back in form after the last couple of games.

Adam Lind $2,800 – Hits righties insanely well. Great play for this price tag.

Anthony Rendon $3,800 – Always confident when I roster him. He’s just so consistent it is hard not to put him in your Washington stack.

Bryce Harper $5,000 – He has huge home run potential as always. I just don’t like paying this much for someone who could just as easily get you 0 points. Huge upside with huge risk.

Brian Goodwin $3,400 – Brian Goodwin is quietly having an amazing year. Everybody on the Nationals bats well, but I never worry about Goodwin getting me 0 points. He’s in the same boat as Rendon in having him in most Washington stacks.

CIN @ MIA – 7:10ET

Pitching

Tim Adleman $6,500 – Not even a tiny bit interested. The Marlins hit the ball against anybody and Tim Adleman is a nobody.

Adam Conley $7,300 – Miami’s pitchers are terrible. Cincinnati has been playing pretty bad lately, but I think they’ll bounce back against Conley.

Bats

Cincinnati

Eugenio Suarez $3,100 – Tonight is the night. I’m expecting big things from this Reds team tonight and Suarez. He will be in most of my Reds stacks.

Jose Peraza $2,100 – Love it! He hits lefties pretty well and is only $2,100. This price is way too good to pass on.

Adam Duvall $3,600 – Hit a homer last night and think he can do it again tonight. He’s amazing against lefties and is a must have in your Reds stack.

Miami 

Dee Gordon $3,700 – Great against righties and has stolen base upside. Gordon can put up a ton of points and I can see him doing just that tonight.

Miguel Rojas $2,300 – This is where you differentiate yourself from other Marlins stacks. Incredible splits vs righties and is super cheap. I’m going to have a good amount of him in my lineups tonight.

Marcell Ozuna $3,900 – My favorite of the expensive options. He has the best splits against righties of the outfield options.

Giancarlo Stanton $4,600 – I honestly don’t like him as much as I should tonight. I don’t know why, but I just don’t expect him to do as well as Ozuna. The only reason I put him here is because the matchup is too good to pass up.

Christian Yelich $4,000 – Same thing as Stanton. I just am not a huge fan, but this matchup is juicy and he has huge upside.

My Marlins stack would most likely look like this: Gordon, Rojas and Ozuna. If you like Stanton and Yelich you can make some variation, but I just don’t think they’ll perform as well for their prices.

CHI @ MIL – 7:10ET

Pitching

Kyle Hendricks $8,000 – He could be interesting here. He has a 28.6% strikeout rate on the road vs lefties. I could see him being in a decent spot here, but the Brewers lefties are just too good for me to have confidence in Hendricks. You could use him as a flier in a GPP lineup though.

Junior Guerra $5,900 – Not now, not ever.

Bats

Chicago

Anthony Rizzo $4,600 – High price, but I think he’ll hit a homer tonight. I’m seeing a big game out of him tonight. He is my #PICK2CLICK

Kyle Schwarber $3,200 – Everybody knows Schwarber smashes righties. I don’t see why he wouldn’t do more of that tonight.

I like other Cubs bats but don’t know which ones. These are the only 2 guys I’m really comfortable with.

Milwaukee

Eric Thames $3,400 – Lefty who hits righties. Good play with home run potential.

Jonathan Villar $2,900 – Best splits are against righties at home. Doesn’t have as much home run upside as the other options, but steals tons of bases and is priced very well.

Eric Sogard $2,400 – Pivot play if Villar isn’t in the lineup. Too cheap to pass on.

Travis Shaw $3,900 – He’s a straight up monster against RHP. Can almost guarantee a home run from him in this game.

CLE @ CWS – 7:10ET

Pitching

Corey Kluber $11,900 – Ahh, the chalk of all chalk. He will be the highest owned pitcher by far and for good reason. Elite pitcher with an elite matchup. It’s going to be hard not to take him in every lineup, but I don’t like the idea of limiting myself to one pitcher that 35% of people are going to own. Yes, he’s easily the best pitcher on the slate and yes, you need to have him in most of your lineups, but don’t limit yourself to Kluber in ALL of your lineups.

Miguel Gonzalez $6,200 – He doesn’t have strikeout upside and is going against a hot Cleveland team. Stay away.

Bats

Cleveland

Michael Brantley $3,800 – You need him against a bad righty.

Edwin Encarnation $3,800 – Righty that smashes righties. Great spot for him here.

Carlos Santana $3,400 – Playing like a beast the last few games. He’s looking to keep it going in this one.

Bradley Zimmer $3,500 – Has been smashing the ball lately. I don’t think he’s a must have because of the price jump, but he has so much upside that he’s hard to pass on.

Jose Ramirez $3,600 – How is he not the most expensive bat on this team? He’s incredible and you have to have him in your Cleveland stack.

White SoxI am less interested in them than a fat guy is interested in a salad.

KAN @ BOS – 7:10ET

Pitching

Trevor Cahill $8,400 – I like Cahill quite a bit here. I do have some concerns though. Boston doesn’t really strikeout a whole lot and Boston is really good against RHP. I like him because he has great strikeout upside and is now with a team that can help him get the win. He is also pitching in Fenway, a pitchers park. The temperature is the coldest on the slate and the wind will be blowing directly towards home at 12mph. These factors give me reason to think that Cahill might be a sneaky play tonight.

Eduardo Rodriguez $8,200 – Same story goes for Rodriguez. He is in a pretty good spot here. I would say a great spot, but the Royals have been playing very well as of late. In the last 7 days the Royals have scored the 3rd most runs, 3rd highest batting average and are 4th in slugging percentage. It’s hard to be confident in a pitcher facing a team as hot as the Royals.

Bats

KansasNot interested in this situation with the temperature and wind blowing in.

BostonSame as Kansas. A cheap lefty might be a nice play, but there are too many options on this slate for me to push it.

ARI @ STL – 7:15ET

Pitching

Zack Greinke $10,200 – I don’t know how to feel about Greinke. He has a bad matchup against the Cardinals, but the strikeout potential is undeniable. I believe he’ll be owned around 8-12% which makes me more interested. People are scared off of pitchers against St. Louis which is understandable, but I love Greinke’s strikeout upside and might use him as a pivot from Kluber in a lineup or two.

Mike Leake $7,700 – If Jake Lamb doesn’t play then I’m slightly interested in Leake. Arizona strikes out quite a bit, but Leake is bad against lefties. I probably won’t take Leake in any of my lineups tonight, but will consider him as a low owned option if Jake Lamb is out again tonight.

Bats

Arizona

Jake Lamb $3,800 – If he plays then this is a great spot for him taking on a righty.

David Peralta $3,400 – I just want him to stop this slump. I think he just may do that tonight.

Gregor Blanco $2,700 – Blanco doesn’t play that often anymore, but I’m hoping he does tonight because I love this price.

Chris Owings $2,500 – Speaking of loving the price, enter Chris Owings. Incredible price for a guy who can put up 25FDP on any given night.

St. LouisI like Greinke too much to take any Cardinals bats. Even if I didn’t like Greinke I wouldn’t know who to take. This team is so unpredictable.

BAL @ TEX – 8:05ET

Pitching

Kevin Gausman $7,800 – Can we just take a moment to give Kevin Gausman a round of applause? He has been tremendous in his last 2 starts and one of those was against Texas. I don’t expect the same results out of him tonight. He has much worst splits when he’s on the road and Texas seems to have found their stride once again. He will go back to being the same old punching bag after he gets shelled tonight.

Austin Bibens-Dirkx $6,600 – This is expected to be the highest scoring game on the slate and I’m not looking to take either side of this pseudo home run derby.

Bats

Baltimore

John Schoop $3,700 – Hits righties all day! Schoop will have a payday going up against a bad pitcher like Bibens-Dirkx.

Manny Machado $3,600 – This is the game Manny bounces back. Would not surprise me to see him have a 2 HR game tonight.

Trey Mancini $2,900 –  Just a great price for this guy. Great reverse splits and needs to be a part of your Orioles stack.

Seth Smith $3,200 – When he plays, he plays against righties. It’s homer time folks!

Texas

Elvis Andrus $3,200 – Great game last night and will have another again tonight. He will be very chalky though.

Adrian Belre $3,900 – Least chalky of all Texas bats listed. Can go off on any night. Why not tonight?

Nomar Mazara $3,100 – Great game last night! He is going to smash Gausman. No doubt about it.

Shin-soo Choo $3,500 – He’s been kind of quiet as of late. Tonight I think he’ll put up big numbers.

PIT @ SDP – 8:40ET

Pitching

Ivan Nova $8,300 – This game has a low expected total and Nova is interesting here. Even though the Padres have been playing very well they are still the Padres. Nova doesn’t have a lot of strikeout potential, but playing against the Padres could change that. The Padres are 27th in the league in strikeout rate which means lots of opportunity for Nova to have a great game. Also, Nova has only pitched less than 6 innings once this entire season. Add those two facts together and Nova could be one of the better options on the slate.

Dinelson Lamet $7,900 – I’m wrong every time I take a pitcher against the Pirates. They can go off on any given night and they could definitely do it tonight against Lamet.

Bats

Pittsburg

Josh Bell $3,600 – Has just been dominating righties. He will go low owned and has great upside.

John Jaso $2,200 – He’s too cheap for a guy who can put up big numbers. No one will own him…except you.

Andrew McCutchen $3,900 – Can hit any pitcher on any night. Best option on the Pirates.

Adam Frazier $2,800 – He’s just so good against righties. Definitely low owned, high upside option.

Padres As well as they have been playing lately I should like them. I just don’t plan on playing them tonight against Ivan Nova.

MIN @ OAK – 9:05ET

Pitching

Adalberto Mejia $6,900 – I’m not interested in Mejia in this spot. Oakland strikes out a lot and has been playing like…well, like Oakland. I think they bounce back against Mejia tonight.

Chris Smith $6,000 – Smith has only played 3 games this year. That doesn’t really give a lot of ability to predict his performance tonight. What I will say is that he has performed well so far, but doesn’t have the strikeout upside that you would like from your pitcher in a GPP. I’m not going to say he’s a great play, but he’s an option if you want to stack elite bats.

Bats

MinnesotaI’m not going to play any Minnesota bats tonight. I just can’t get a read on Chris Smith. Too risky for me.

Oakland

Ryon Healy $2,400 – He is way way way too cheap. I think he’ll have a good game tonight against the Twins.

Marcus Semien $3,200 – He has been on fire! You need to look at him if you’re going with an A’s stack.

Rajai Davis $2,600 – Great against lefties and is very affordable. Has good stolen base upside as well.

Khris Davis $4,000 – Best option on the A’s and can hit multiple homers on any given night.

Let’s build a lineup – Let’s take everything we just looked at and build a lineup

P: Corey Kluber $11,900

C: Devin Mesoraco $2,100

1B: Edwin Encarnation $3,800

2B: Jose Ramirez $3,600

3B: Ryon Healy $2,400

SS: Jose Peraza $2,100

OF: Adam Duvall $3,600
OF: Rajai Davis $2,600
OF: Austin Jackson $2,800

Total: $34,900

That’s all for this breakdown. If you liked this breakdown, you can follow on twitter @JoeJBerg. Thank you for reading and go out and win some money tonight!

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