MLB DFS

Pitching Breakdown 7/30/17

Hello, class! Today we will be talking about percentages. Not the “if Mike and Sally have a pie with 12 pieces and Mike eats 8, what percentage of the pie does Sally get to eat” type of percentages. We will be predicting ownership percentages for the upcoming slate. What I am going to do is try to predict the ownership percentages for the pitchers on the upcoming slate to decide who is the most and least chalky. This will help us decide who we want to take in GPPs to differ our lineup from the rest. Having a lower owned player who does well gives us the edge we need to get towards the top of the leaderboard. All players will be listed by salary from most expensive to least expensive. Let’s get to it!

The Chalkboard

Justin Verlander ($8,800) vs HOU – 4%

Why? – Verlander will automatically garner a tiny bit of ownership just because he’s the highest priced pitcher on the slate. He won’t garner too much though because of his matchup against the Astros.

Like/Dislike? – Dislike – I am with everybody else. I can’t trust a pitcher against Houston. Too much of a risk for too little of a reward.

Drew Pomeranz ($8,400) vs KAN – 7.5%

Why? – I think people will get drawn into his strikeout rate. He shouldn’t be owned over 10% because of his matchup, but he will get some ownership for being towards the top of the pitcher pool.

Like/Dislike? – Dislike – I will continue to fade pitchers against Kansas City until they stop hitting so well. They are putting up too many runs for me to have the confidence to roster a non-elite pitcher against them.

Jake Faria ($8,400) @ NYY – 8%

Why? – If he wasn’t going against the Yankees I think he would be owned much higher. The Yankees tend to scare people off of pitchers, but people like playing Jake Faria.

Like/Dislike? – Somewhat like – I can’t say I really like him because he’s facing the Yankees in Yankee Stadium. That should be enough to scare me away, but I like taking risks with pitchers. The Yankees have a pretty high strikeout rate and I will probably play Faria in at least 1 contest.

Lance McCullers Jr. ($8,100) @ DET – 15%

Why? – I think McCullers will be one of the higher owned pitchers. This is due to his drop in price and he’s a righty going up against Detroit. Everybody knows Detroit doesn’t hit RHP as well as they hit lefties, but that should draw in a lot of people. People will also be drawn in by name recognition and try to get an easy steal in a pitcher who has massive strikeout upside. Some people will fade him due to his recent bad games which is why he shouldn’t be owned over 20%.

Like/Dislike? – Like – I like McCullers in this spot. I am scared that his past couple of games may be a trend that will continue, but his statistics are way too good to pass on at this price. I am going to have him in a lineup or two, but I will also be careful not to have too much exposure.

Lance Lynn ($8,000) vs ARI – 4%

Why? – No one likes playing a pitcher against Arizona and people will pay $100 more and jump up to McCullers.

Like/Dislike? – Undecided – I can see Lynn having a good game here. Arizona strikes out a lot and he has been playing well recently. On the other hand, Arizona smashes righties and he could get blown up and leave the game early. I may play him in one lineup just because I think the ownership will be very low.

Josh Tomlin ($8,000) @ CWS – 6%

Why? – People will play him just for the matchup. He is going against the White Sox who people love playing pitchers against. I think the fact that Corey Kluber gave up 4 earned runs against them will scare quite a few people off though.

Like/Dislike? – Dislike – If the past is any indication, Tomlin will have a bad game tomorrow. In 2 starts against the White Sox this season he scored -1 and -16 points. That’s enough for me to fade him tomorrow. If he has a good game I will just accept that I missed on this one.

Dan Straily ($7,600) vs CIN – 2.5%

Why? – I don’t really see a ton of people taking a Miami pitcher. Miami’s pitchers are generally bad and there are better options around this price.

Like/Dislike? – Like – Cincinnati hasn’t been themselves the past few games. He could have a really nice game and I’m going to take a shot on him.

Jordan Montgomery ($7,500) vs TAM – 20%

Why? – Jordan Montgomery will be highly owned because he’s the best pitcher at this price point. Everybody knows that Tampa struggles with lefties which means everybody will gravitate towards Montgomery.

Like/Dislike? – Like – I really like the matchup and his splits, but I don’t like picking the highest owned pitcher on the slate. I’m definitely going to have some exposure to him, it’s just a question of how much.

Taijuan Walker ($7,400) @ STL – 5%

Why? – He will garner some ownership from players who don’t know the game as well as others. My reasoning is that people will see his 30.4 FDP per game, one of the highest around this price, and take him because of that. He will also garner some ownership from people trying to make contrarian lineups.

Like/Dislike? – Dislike – The Cardinals just don’t strikeout that much. I was hesitant playing Robbie Ray and Zack Greinke vs St.Louis, so I’m not going to play a much worse pitcher against them.

John Lackey ($7,400) @ MIL – 3%

Why? – People know Milwaukee strikes out a lot which means at least a few people will take a chance with him. They also know that Milwaukee has a lot of power lefties who could take advantage of Lackey in this game.

Like/Dislike? – Dislike – Even though Milwaukee got beat by Josh Hendricks tonight I don’t think it will happen again. I’m not wacky for Lackey here.

Kyle Freeland ($7,300) @ WAS – 2%

Why? – He should be owned under 1%, but will have a little ownership after German Marquez destroying the Nationals tonight. People will be reaching to try to get the same result.

Like/Dislike? – Dislike – There is no way the Nationals get killed by a Colorado pitcher 2 games in a row. It’s just not going to happen and I’m not going to take a pitcher who could very easily get negative points.

Zach Davies ($7,200) vs CHC – 2.5%

Why? – His past numbers are pretty bad and he’s going up against the Cubs. You never know how the Cubs will do and most people won’t risk it by choosing Davies here.

Like/Dislike? – Like – I know I’ve been preaching about teams not hitting bad 2 days in a row, but I just can’t trust the Cubs bats. Zach Davies has not given up a run in the past 14.2 innings, so I have to think something has changed with him. I don’t expect him to keep up this streak of not giving up runs, but I expect another solid outing from him.

Luis Castillo ($7,100) @ MIA – 5%

Why? – Castillo has a good strikeout rate and is super cheap. He will garner a little ownership just for these reasons.

Like/Dislike? – Like – Castillo is one of my favorite pitchers on the slate. He has averaged 30.7 FDP per game in 7 starts. We need to take into account his opponents in these games. He’s played against the Diamondbacks twice, Nationals twice, Milwaukee, Colorado and the Yankees. The fact that he has played so well after being thrown under the bus is ridiculous. He gets a much “easier” opponent in the Marlins. It’s not the best matchup in the world, but it’s easier than what he has gone against so far.

Carlos Rodon ($7,000) vs CLE – 0.5%

Why? – He’s facing Cleveland and plays for the White Sox. Enough said.

Like/Dislike – Dislike – I can’t justify playing him against a hot Cleveland squad.

Jason Hammel ($6,900) @ BOS – 0.5%

Why? – Boston doesn’t strikeout and played well tonight against a better pitcher than Hammel. No one want to play pitchers vs the Red Sox.

Like/Dislike? – Dislike – I was wrong about Cahill tonight against the Sox, but I won’t be wrong twice. There is nothing to like about Hammel here.

Vince Velasquez ($6,900) vs ATL – 0.5%

Why? – Atlanta is decent at hitting and Vince Velasquez is a bad pitcher. Put these two things together and you get no ownership.

Like/Dislike? – Dislike – He’s just a bad baseball player. I’m not going to do this to myself.

R.A. Dickey ($6,700) @ PHI – 12.5%

Why? – His price just seems too cheap for what he is capable of doing. He’s going against the Phillies, so that will automatically bump his ownership by around 5%. He is the best option below $7,000.

Like/Dislike? – Like – He will probably be highly owned, but he has tremendous upside in a matchup against the Phillies. They strike out a lot and don’t score a whole lot of runs. Even though they have been playing better lately, I just can’t fade a pitcher against them.

Jesse Chavez ($6,100) @ TOR – 0.5%

Why? – Angels pitchers never get any ownership. I don’t see this being any different.

Like/Dislike? – Dislike – Toronto has been playing well and I can’t justify taking a pitcher against them. Especially a pitcher as bad as Chavez.

Cesar Valdez ($5,700) vs LAA – 0.5%

Why? – He hasn’t performed well in enough games to trust him. The Angels have been playing well since the return of Mike Trout.

Like/Dislike? – Dislike – Mike Trout’s return has brought new life to the Angels. Playing a pitcher against them right now isn’t a good idea.

Erick Fedde ($5,500) vs COL – 0.5%

Why? – He may be owned around 1-2% because people want to test the waters with him. He doesn’t have any info on Fanduel and most people don’t want to play someone without any stats to backup their picks. Some may take him because he’s the lowest priced pitcher on the slate. It’s hard to determine what people will do with him here.

Like/Dislike? – Dislike – A quick glance at his splits from Double A and Triple A shows that he’s not a great pitcher. He may surprise me, but I’m going to try hard to roster a lot of bats against him.

I hope this article gave you some insight on some lower owned options that could give you an edge on the competition. Follow me on Twitter @JoeJBerg and let me know if this article helped you out. I would like to once again thank Sean Kane for allowing me the opportunity to give some of my advice through these articles. Let’s go win some money and show everybody the Lineup Logic crew means business!

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