MLB DFS

Pitching Breakdown 8/5/17

Hello class! Today we will be talking about percentages. Not the “if Mike and Sally have a pie with 12 pieces and Mike eats 8, what percentage of the pie does Sally get to eat” type of percentages. We will be predicting ownership percentages for the upcoming slate. What I am going to do is try to predict the ownership percentages for the pitchers on the upcoming slate. This will help us decide who we want to take in GPPs to differ our lineup from the rest. Having a lower owned player who does well gives us the edge we need to get towards the top of the leaderboard. All players will be listed by salary from most expensive to least expensive. Let’s get to it!

The Chalkboard

Gerritt Cole ($9,600) SDP @ PIT – 13.5%

Why? – Cole has been playing great lately. I a little surprised that he’s the most expensive pitcher on the slate though. He’ll be owned by a good amount of people because of his matchup. The Padres strikeout a lot and he scored 52pts in his last start. Guess who his last start was against? That’s right, the Padres.

Like/Dislike? Like – I think he’s a safe option here. Not my favorite, but I see him getting 7 Ks in 6-7 innings with a quality start. (Projected points: 42)

Danny Salazar ($8,900) NYY @ CLE – 10%

Why? – His strikeout rate is just insane. He’s averaging 13 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched. Some people will fade him because he’s facing the Yankees, but it’s hard to fade a pitcher with the most strikeout upside on the slate.

Like/Dislike? – Like, but with caution – It’s hard to know what will happen here. He has the ability to go 6 innings with 11 strikeouts, but he could also get blown up in the 1st inning and get pulled. He’s worth a play in at least 1 of your lineups solely because of the upside he has. He will either go 1-2 innings with 4-5 errors or 6 innings with 11 k’s and 2 errors and get a quality start. (Projected points: -5 or 47) Really hard to trust him not to get blown up.

Danny Duffy ($8,600) SEA @ KAN 2%

Why? – He will be owned by a few people trying to be contrarian, but he does not have a good matchup. There are better options at this price.

Like/Dislike? – Dislike – I can’t trust him against the Mariners. He is interesting solely for the reason that he just doesn’t get blown up. He won’t get you 15 points, but he doesn’t have GPP winning upside. The Mariners don’t strikeout enough against lefties. I would go for a different option at this price point. (Projected points: 32)

Drew Pomeranz ($8,600) CWS @ BOS 17%

Why? – The matchup. This is a great matchup at first glance which will draw a lot of people in. People love pitchers against the White Sox.

Like/Dislike? – Dislike – I don’t like him in this spot. He will be too heavily owned and the White Sox aren’t as bad as they seem against lefties. I don’t want him at this high of ownership, but I could be wrong and he could have an amazing game. Play at your own risk. (Projected points: 33)

Cole Hamels ($8,400) TEX @ MIN – 2%

Why? – Nobody ever plays Hamels. He isn’t the greatest pitcher, but he’s in the game boat as Danny Duffy in regards of not getting blown up very often.

Like/Dislike? – Dislike – The Twins don’t strikeout very much against lefties and they may be getting their groove back after last night’s outing. Too scared to go to him here. (Projected points: 29)

Charlie Morton ($8,300) TOR @ HOU – 11.5%

Why? – Playing well lately and he is facing Toronto. He plays for a high powered offense which will draw a decent number of people in.

Like/Dislike? – Like – Toronto does not strikeout as much against righties, but Morton has great strikeout upside. He has a good chance to pitch 6+ innings which is what you want from your starting pitcher. (Projected points: 40)

Lance Lynn ($8,200) STL @ CIN – 6%

Why? – Cincinnati has been playing terribly as of late. From my experience, people like to play St. Louis pitchers and he will be owned by people looking to capitalize on the Reds’ slump.

Like/Dislike? – Like – He’s too consistent not to take a chance on. He doesn’t strikeout as many batters as some of the names here, but he’s got a decent shot to pitch 7-8 innings. (Projected points: 38)

Felix Hernandez ($8,200) SEA @ KAN – 2%

Why? – Kansas is scary to play a pitcher against. They have way too much power in their lineup and people will stay away.

Like/Dislike? – Dislike – I can’t see him having a good game in this one. I think Kansas will blow him up. (Projected points: 18)

Taiwan Walker ($8,100) ARI @ SFG – 7.5%

Why? – He has a good strikeout rate and is facing a bad team. He could go off for a big game and people will play him because he’s on a high powered offensive team.

Like/Dislike? – Dislike – The Giants don’t strikeout. They have very good plate discipline and I can’t bring myself to go to him here. (Projected points: 25)

Dinelson Lamet ($8,000) SDP @ PIT – 1%

Why? – Nobody wants to play a Padres pitcher. He could get massively blown up here.

Like/Dislike? – Like – Now hear me out. He is my very very sleepy pick on this slate. He has an amazing strikeout rate and has played well in his last 2 starts. I will definitely take a shot on him solely for GPP leverage. His last game was against the Pirates and he put up 43 points. If he does that again, he could very well be in the winning GPP lineup. (Projected points: 40)

Mike Foltynewicz ($7,800) MIA @ ATL – 2%

Why? – It’s hard to be comfortable playing him against a team like the Marlins. All they do is hit dingers.

Like/Dislike? – Dislike – Too high of risk with not enough reward. I’m staying away from him in this one. (Projected points: 26)

Luis Castillo ($7,300) STL @ CIN – 8%

Why? – Low priced option with good upside. I think some people will be all over him after his last start.

Like/Dislike? – Like – One of my favorite pitching options on this slate. He could easily be best pitcher for the money today. Great to play if you need salary to afford Colorado bats. (Projected points: 38)

Dan Straily ($7,400) MIA @ ATL – 2%

Why? – He’s never owned very highly, but a couple of people will choose him for leverage on the field.

Like/Dislike? – Dislike – Too great of a chance for him to get destroyed here. Atlanta doesn’t strikeout that much and it’s not worth the risk. (Projected points: 28)

Tyler Skaggs ($7,200) OAK @ LAA – 1%

Why? – Generally people stay away from pitchers coming off of the DL. 1% of people will take him because he’s playing against a team that strikes out a lot.

Like/Dislike? – Dislike – He will be on a limited pitch count around 85-90 pitches. That just doesn’t give enough chance to have an incredible game. (Projected points: 22)

Jordan Montgomery ($6,900) NYY @ CLE – 2%

Why? – Look at the matchup….that’s why.

Like/Dislike? – Dislike – Look at the matchup….that’s why. (Projected points: 15)

Paul Blackburn ($6,800) OAK @ LAA – 2%

Why? – Blackburn has been very solid since making his debut in the rotation. He’s going against a hot Angels team and that will scare enough people away.

Like/Dislike? – Dislike – I definitely can see him going 6 innings, but he doesn’t strike enough batters out and the Angels are playing phenomenally right now. (Projected points: 20)

Jon Gray ($6,700) PHI @ COL – 2.5%

Why? – He’s got a decent K rate and is playing against the Phillies. People will be scared off because he’s playing in Coors.

Like/Dislike? – Like – This could be a great leverage play. He could have an amazing game at low cost and low ownership. I will be playing him in at least 1 lineup. (Projected points: 34)

Marco Estrada ($6,700) TOR @ HOU – 1.5%

Why? – He’s going up against Houston. Need I say more?

Like/Dislike? – He’s going up against Houston. Need I say more? (Projected points: 14)

Wade Miley ($6,100) DET @ BAL – 0.5%

Why? – He’s a Baltimore lefty going up against Detroit. It’s not a good combo.

Like/Dislike? – Dislike – Detroit SMASHES lefties, he’s a bad pitcher and DETROIT SMASHES LEFTIES! Now that I’ve said that, he’ll probably put up 40 points just to spite me, what a dick…  (Projected points: -40)

Kyle Gibson ($5,800) TEX @ MIN – 0.5%

Why? – Gets rocked in 2 out of 3 games. Not chancing it.

Like/Dislike? – Dislike – Minnesota has a terrible bullpen. That is the only reason this guy is a starting pitcher. Play at your own risk. (Projected points: 12)

Nick Pivetta ($5,600) PHI @ COL – 1%

Why? – Good strikeout rate, terrible situation. May god have mercy on his soul.

Like/Dislike? – Dislike – No explanation needed. (Projected points: 18)

Drew VerHagen ($5,500) DET @ BAL – 0.5%

Why? – Too new to take a chance on. Nobody knows his capabilities.

Like/Dislike? – Dislike – Consider this, he has given up 3 homers in 4 innings pitched. What I’m saying is that you need to stack the Orioles. (Projected points: 4 while giving up 4 HRs)

James Shields ($5,500) CWS @ BOS – 0.5%

Why? – Bad pitcher going against a Boston team that’s on fire. No one should pick him.

Like/Dislike? – Dislike – For the love of all that is holy, please fade him. Don’t be that guy. (Projected points: BAHAHAHA)

Chris Stratton ($5,500) ARI @ SFG – 0.5%

Why? – 4 games pitched and only pitched more than 6 innings in one of those starts. He put up 8 points in that start.

Like/Dislike? – Despise – The Diamondbacks will have so much fun playing against this guy. He put up -14 points in one of his games. Against who? Oh, just the PADRES. THE PADRES! ARE YOU JOKING? WHO IN THEIR RIGHT MIND WOULD WANT TO PLAY THIS GUY? IF YOU PLAY HIM, WE ARE NO LONGER FRIENDS! (Projected points: somewhere in the range of -5 to -150)

Recap: Favorite Options

Safest Play: Gerritt Cole

Highest Upside: Danny Salazar

GPP winning contrarian pick: Dinelson Lamet

Low cost/High Upside: Luis Castillo

Punt play: Jon Gray

That’s it for this breakdown. I hope this article gave you some insight on some lower owned options that could give you an edge on the competition. Follow me on Twitter @JoeJBerg and let me know if this article helped you out. I would like to once again thank Sean Kane for allowing me the opportunity to give some of my advice through these articles. Let’s go win some money and show everybody the Lineup Logic crew means business!

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s