MLB DFS

Pitching Breakdown: Sunday 8/6/17

Hello class! Today we will be talking about percentages. Not the “if Mike and Sally have a pie with 12 pieces and Mike eats 8, what percentage of the pie does Sally get to eat” type of percentages. We will be talking about the “if Chris Tillman is facing the Phillies, what percentage of people are willing to take a risk on him” type of percentages. What I am going to do is try to predict the ownership percentages for the pitchers on the upcoming slate. This will help us decide who we want to take in GPPs to differ our lineup from the rest. Having a lower owned player who does well gives us the edge we need to get towards the top of the leaderboard. All players will be listed by salary from most expensive to least expensive. Let’s get to it!

The Chalkboard

Chris Archer ($10,500) MIL @ TAM – 18%

Why? – This game is super interesting. Both teams have power lefties which means that both pitchers have the potential of giving up multiple home runs. That said, this is a battle of two elite pitchers and they will both be very highly owned. Archer should be the highest owned pitcher on the slate facing the team with the most strikeouts on the season.

Like/Dislike? – Like – It’s really hard to not like Archer in this spot. He has a great matchup and has better splits at home than he does away. He will be chalky so limit your exposure, but you do need to have a couple of lines with Archer because of his upside. (Projected points: 46)

Luis Severino ($9,600) NYY @ CLE – 8.5%

Why? – He’ll be taken because of his recent results. His matchup isn’t particularly great, but he has been putting up huge numbers in his last few games which will draw some people in.

Like/Dislike? – Like – I like him as a high upside option. I hate this matchup and I expect him to give up 2-3 runs, but he should pitch at leas 6 innings. Strikeouts may be limited against Cleveland who doesn’t strikeout much, but he always has 10K + upside. (Projected points: 42)

Jon Lester ($9,400) WAS @ CHC – 5%

Why? – There are seemingly better options a little above and a little below this price point. Would you rather go with Nelson or Lester? That is why he will be so low owned.

Like/Dislike? – Like (SLEEPER ALERT) – Washington has been mediocre at best lately. They have been even worse against capable pitchers. I think he could have a good game here. He’s not the best option on the slate, but he could be the best low owned option. (Projected points: 44)

Carlos Carrasco ($9,100) NYY @ CLE – 6.5%

Why? – His most recent game Carrasco had -7 points. This will make some people scared to play him. At the same time, Danny Salazar’s performance against the Yankees last night will make some people play him.

Like/Dislike? – Like – Be very cautious here. This could be a huge trap, but I’ll have Carrasco in at least 1 line today. The Yankees strike out a lot and I’m hoping his last performance was an outlier. He may be a sneaky play that people get scared off of. (Projected points: 38)

Jose Berrios ($9,000) TEX @ MIN – 4%

Why? – There are better options here. Contrarian players will have some exposure to Berrios though.

Like/Dislike? – Dislike – Berrios is too inconsistent for me. I like a player with high upside who is safe. Berries is one of the least safe high priced options on this slate. (Projected points: 32)

Jimmy Nelson ($8,900) MIL @ TAM – 16%

Why? – This game will be so fun to watch if you want to watch a pitching duel. Tampa Bay has the 2nd most strikeouts on the season and lots of people will be playing Nelson.

Like/Dislike? – Like – It’s impossible not to like Nelson in this matchup. Tampa Bay strikes out a ton and Nelson has a great strikeout rate. My only dislike is that everybody will be on him. I will definitely have some shares of him, but they will be limited to 2-3 lineups. (Projected points: 45)

Danny Duffy ($8,600) SEA @ KAN – 2.5%

Why? – Everybody will be playing Nelson and Archer. Most people will overlook Duffy in a mediocre matchup.

Like/Dislike? – Dislike – Hate this matchup, but Duffy doesn’t give up many runs. It just doesn’t happen. The only problem is that his strikeout upside isn’t as high as other pitchers on the slate. You could use him as a very low owned option in a GPP and see it pay off. I’m just not willing to risk him only getting 3-4 strikeouts. (Projected points: 28)

Marcus Stroman ($8,300) TOR @ HOU – 2.5% 

Why? – He’s facing Houston. Nobody likes taking a chance on a pitcher against Houston.

Like/Dislike? – Like (only for large scale GPPs) – I only like him in the biggest tournaments. He will give you massive leverage on the field if he has a great game. He already put up 46 points versus Houston earlier this year and he could very well do it again. Houston is VERY risky to play a pitcher against, but Stroman has enough upside that it may be worth it. (Projected points: 36)

Mike Fiers ($8,200) TOR @ HOU – 7%

Why? – I think Fiers will draw ownership as a pivot away from Nelson and Archer. He’s facing the Blue Jays who people love attacking with pitchers.

Like/Dislike? – Like – Listen when I say this. I ONLY like him as a pivot option for lower ownership. He has upside, but he is far from safe. It’s always risky to play a pitcher against Toronto. They are a team who may put up 0 runs against a bad pitcher, but score 10 against a guy like Fiers. Possibly one lineup, depending on if I need the salary relief. (Projected points: 30)

Adam Wainwright ($7,800) STL @ CIN – 4%

Why? – He’s coming off the DL and I’m not sure how many people are willing to take a chance on him here. He’ll draw a little ownership being the only pitcher in this price point.

Like/Dislike? – Dislike – As I have mentioned before, I don’t like playing pitchers coming off of the DL. He wasn’t out of the rotation for long, but it’s hard to tell when someone is back to full health. He could very well have a good game, but not enough upside for me to play him. (Projected points: 24)

Jameson Taillon ($7,300) SDP @ PIT – 6%

Why? – Taillon is going up against the Padres meaning that he will automatically garner some ownership. Normally I’d say he’d be around 10%, but he has negative points in his last 2 outings. I think for that reason people will be scared away.  Still, people will be focused on MIL @ TAM.

Like/Dislike? – Undecided – I don’t think he will put up another negative point outing, BUT I still don’t know how much I can trust him. The Padres have been playing much better in the past few weeks and they have become riskier to play pitchers against. He could put up 10 points or he could put up 40 points. It’s very high risk/high reward. (Projected points: 10 or 40)

Ubaldo Jimenez ($6,800) DET @ BAL – 2%

Why? – 2% of people will like a righty vs Detroit. 98% of people know that we’re talking about Ubaldo Jimenez.

Like/Dislike? – Like – I hate saying this, but I will have 1 line with Ubaldo today. He’s put up over 40 points in his last 2 games and I’m hoping he continues this trend. It seems like things are changing for the Baltimore pitchers. I could be wrong, but with his last two starts and the way Kevin Gausman has been playing, things are looking up for the pitching in Baltimore. (Projected points: 35)

Jose Urena ($6,400) MIA @ ATL – 2%

Why? – Most people tend to fade Miami pitcher and I don’t think this will be any exception.

Like/Dislike? – Like – I think this is a spot to differentiate your lineup from the field. Urena has been playing well as of late. I’m going to have him in a lineup or two today. He should be a solid punt option on this slate. He could get blown up, but I’m willing to take a risk. (Projected points: 30)

Doug Fister ($6,400) CWS @ BOS – 8%

Why? – He’s super cheap and had a great game in his last start. People will play him as their punt option.

Like/Dislike? – Dislike – I can’t let 1 game be the deciding factor to pick him here. I would rather take a chance on the White Sox vs Fister than play Fister vs the White Sox. (Projected points: 20)

Clayton Richard ($6,300) SDP @ PIT – 0.5%

Why? – Not the best matchup and he gets blown up too much. The majority of people will be scared away for these reasons.

Like/Dislike? – Dislike – I liked Dinelson Lamet yesterday, but I can’t say the same for Richard here. I think PIT puts up 3-4 runs against him in this game. (Projected points: 22)

Aníbal Sanchez ($6,300) DET @ BAL – 1%

Why? – Has had a couple of solid starts in the past few games. Most people would rather spend $100 more to move up to Fister.

Like/Dislike? – Dislike – I don’t trust bad/mediocre pitchers against Baltimore in any situation. They have the ability to put up a ton on runs in a single inning. (Projected points: 23)

Lucas Sims ($6,000) MIA @ ATL – 1%

Why? – Foltynewicz had a monster game against Miami last night, but people will still fade Sims here.

Like/Dislike? – Dislike – I don’t like him, but he’s my favorite option at $6,000 and below. (Projected points: 26)

Marco Gonzales ($6,000) SEA @ KAN – 1%

Why? – Kansas is way too good to risk playing Gonzales here. Most players will realize this and fade him.

Like/Dislike? – Dislike – Kansas is a super scary offense. I don’t want to take a chance on Gonzales in this spot. (Projected points: 15)

Homer Bailey ($5,800) STL @ CIN – 0.5%

Why? – Bailey has been giving up way too many runs. Nobody will want to play him.

Like/Dislike? – Dislike – Not enough upside here. He could definitely play 5-6 innings, but I don’t expect him to strikeout enough batters. (Projected points: 24)

Nick Martinez ($5,700) TEX @ MIN – 1%

Why? – Minnesota has too much of a chance to blow him up. Most people won’t risk it.

Like/Dislike? – Dislike – Minnesota could very easily put up 3-4 runs before the 4th inning. I don’t expect him to play too much of this game. (Projected points: 16)

Mike Pelfrey ($5,000) CWS @ BOS – 0.5%

Why? – White Sox pitcher vs the Red hot Sox? He should be the lowest owned pitcher on this slate.

Like/Dislike? – Dislike – The Red Sox can put up a ton of runs on any given day. I expect him to give up 4-5 runs in this one. (Projected points: 13)

Erick Fedde ($5,000) WAS @ CHC – 0.5%

Why? – Unproven pitcher vs the Cubs. He will be one of the lowest owned pitchers.

Like/Dislike? – Dislike – The Cubs should have an incredible outing vs Fedde. I’m not looking to be a part of this nightmare. (Projected points: 18)

Recap: Favorite Options

Safest play: Chris Archer & Jimmy Nelson

Highest upside: Jon Lester/Luis Severino

Highest upside contrarian pick: Marcus Stroman

Highest upside punt play: Ubaldo Jimenez

Safest punt play: Jose Urena

Feeling Lucky?: James Taillon

 

Looking at the pitchers I hate the most we can choose which teams bats we want to stack. I’m not going to do a breakdown of the bats, but here are my top 5 favorite teams to stack for the slate today. I tend to stay away from chalky stacks, but I’ll include some because of the matchup.

1.) Boston vs Mike Pelfrey – will be very chalky, but they should score a lot of runs.

2.) Kansas City vs Marco Gonzales – I think they will go pretty low owned. I am very into Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain and Mike Moustakas.

3.) Cubs vs Erick Fedde- Another chalky stack, but I don’t see them putting up less than 5 runs.

4.) Miami vs Lucas Sims – I really like Miami here. I see them owned around 7-10% which makes them a solid stack for me.

5.) White Sox vs Doug Fister – I think the White Sox will be one of the better stacks tomorrow. I’m hoping they will be owned around 5%. This may be the stack that wins a GPP tomorrow.

 

Lineup: I think the Kansas and Miami stacks will go pretty low owned. Stacking these 2 teams allows me to use a chalky pitcher that I like a lot.

P: Jimmy Nelson $8,900
C: J.T. Realmulto $2,800
1B: Eric Hosmer $3,400
2B: Whit Merrifield $3,300
3B: Mike Moustakas $3,500
SS: Miguel Rojas $2,200
OF: Giancarlo Stanton $4,700
OF: Brandon Moss $2,700
OF: Christian Yelich $3,400

Total: $34,900

That’s it for this breakdown. I hope this article gave you some insight on some lower owned options that could give you an edge on the competition. Follow me on Twitter @JoeJBerg and let me know if this article helped you out. I would like to once again thank Sean Kane for allowing me the opportunity to give some of my advice through these articles. Let’s go win some money and show everybody the Lineup Logic crew means business!

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