MLB DFS Strategy

“The Takedown” Breakdown 8/27/17

Today I will be doing something a little different. Instead of “the chalkboard” (due to work and time required to make percentages as accurate as possible), I will be doing “the Takedown” breakdown. In this article, I will be giving my favorite options to take down a GPP on today’s slate. I will start with my favorite lower owned pitchers and then give my favorite batting team stacks. Hopefully this will help you get an idea of some lower owned stacks and you can tweak these to your liking.

Pitchers

The first thing that pops out to me is that the majority of ownership will be on Chris Archer, Masahiro Tanaka and Carlos Carrasco. I think John Lackey will be a little higher owned as well due to Kyle Hendricks’ performance last night. Here are my 2 favorite pivots to differ your lineup.

Dan Straily ($7,900) SDP @ MIA – I think a good amount of people will be on Straily because of how juicy this matchup is. That said, I don’t think he will be owned nearly at the levels of the top priced pitchers. I see him being owned around 10%-15% and he has 50+ point potential as he has shown on a few occasions this year. Lower owned/high upside pitcher in a great matchup. Love him here.

Tyler Mahle ($6,000) PIT @ CIN – Probably my favorite option to take down a GPP today. His numbers in Triple-A have been incredible. 2.73 ERA, 51 strikeouts over 59.1 innings pitched and a 6.8% HR/FB ratio. I know he could get blown up because this is his first stint in the majors, but I am definitely taking a risk with him today. My hope is that most people fade him because he doesn’t have any MLB stats. This will give him crazy low ownership with great potential to help take down a GPP. I will have him in multiple lineups.

Batting Stacks

Cincinnati – they are projected for nearly 5 runs yet I don’t think they will be very highly owned. I think people will be focusing on Baltimore, Boston the Yankees and the Blue Jays. This leaves the Reds low owned with high upside. Jameson Taillon hasn’t been playing very well lately and I am going to attack him hard. I think a solid 3-man stack would be Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett and Billy Hamilton. I’m not as fond of the rest of the batters. Only stacking 3 batters also lets me play Tyler Mahle as my pitcher. SCORE!

Miami – Giancarlo didn’t hit a homer last night which means he hits 3 today? That’s my hope because I’m going to be all over him. I think they will be slightly lower owned (a stack, not Giancarlo) because people always target the lowest priced pitchers. Miami is facing Clayton Richard who is right in the middle in terms of pricing so I think people will somewhat forget about them. Taking Tyler Mahle as our punt pitcher gives us lots of salary to play whoever the hell we want. This is going to be a fun day!

Toronto – YAY! It’s pick on Kyle Gibson day once again! I swear that Kyle Gibson has a built in 2x batter safety amplifier. I automatically feel safe playing basically any batter against him which is probably what I’ll do today. I’m comfortable with all bats, but my favorites are Josh Donaldson, Miguel Montero/Raffy Lopez, Steve Pearce and Jose Bautista. Mix & Match or play just one. Every day versus Kyle Gibson is a good day.

Baltimore – I think they will be pretty chalky. That means we can choose one or two lower owned bats and smooth out our chalk. Chalky options are Manny Machado, Jon Schoop and Tim Beckham. Adam Jones might be chalky, but I think he’ll have average ownership. Lower ownership will go to Mark Trumbo, Chris Davis and Trey Mancini. I don’t mind Mancini, but choose your favorite and plug them in the make your Baltimore stack different.

Washington – They get to face my old roommate Tommy Milone! He was a great guy, but always sucked at baseball. The dude always gave up a ton of runs and he keeps doing it until this day. Nationals get to get back on track against him today. My favorites are Howie Kendrick, Anthony Rendon and Michael Taylor. Daniel Murphy could be interesting and he is only $3,000.

Cleveland – Pretty obvious and they will be somewhat chalky, but I think they are one of the highest upside teams today. Jose Ramirez, Frankie Lindor and Austin Jackson are my favorite guys to stack today.

Colorado – I like them to go off for a few runs. I don’t know who exactly to stack here, but at first glance, I like Mark Reynolds, Gerardo Parra, Charlie Blackmon and Carlos Gonzalez.

These are my favorite teams to stack that might give you some leverage on the field because I think they all have great upside with somewhat lower ownership. Now, let’s build a few different lineups.

Lineup 1: Can you fit Votto, Stanton and Ozuna into a lineup? The answer is yes!

P: Tyler Mahle $6,000
C: JT Realmuto $2,900
1B: Joey Votto $4,300
2B: Scooter Gennett $3,300
3B: Asdrubal Cabrera $2,300
SS: Javier Baez $3,500
OF: Giancarlo Stanton $5,300
OF: Marcell Ozuna $4,300
OF: Billy Hamilton $3,100

Total: $35,000

I couldn’t find 2 players to stack at 3B and SS which brings me to my 2 one-off plays. Asdrubal Cabrera has a great matchup against Erick Fedde and has great upside. I picked Javier Baez because he won’t give me 0 points. Baez has only gotten 0 points on 2 occasions all throughout August. Super trustworthy play with home run upside.

Lineup 2: More Giancarlo

P: Dan Straily ($7,900)
C: Miguel Montero ($2,300)
1B: Justin Smoak ($3,400)
2B: Jose Ramirez ($2,800)
3B: Derek Dietrich ($3,200)
SS: Francisco Lindor ($4,100)
OF: Jose Bautista ($3,000)
OF: Austin Jackson ($3,000)
OF: Giancarlo Stanton ($5,300)

Total: $35,000

Lineup 3: Ugh…fine. I’ll do a stack with Chris Archer

P: Chris Archer $10,100
C: Caleb Joseph $2,400
1B: Mark Reynolds $3,100
2B: Daniel Murphy $3,000
3B: Anthony Rendon $3,200
SS: Tim Beckham $3,600
OF: Carlos Gonzalez $2,500
OF: Howie Kendrick $2,800
OF: Charlie Blackmon $4,300

Total: $35,000

That’s it for this breakdown. I hope this article gave you some insight on some lower owned options that could give you an edge on the competition. Follow me on Twitter @JoeJBerg and let me know if this article helped you out. I would like to once again thank Sean Kane for allowing me the opportunity to give some of my advice through these articles. Let’s go win some money and show everybody the Lineup Logic crew means business!

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