Vegas isn’t gospel, and while there is a ton of use to employing their lines as a starting point, you need to draw some conclusions.
1- Buffalo at Carolina will be a snooze. Hit the under.
The best offensive weapon that Buffalo has is Shady McCoy but the Carolina defense only allowed 4 successful runs plays last week and forced the 49ers into negative game script instantly. If Rivera commits to stopping the run, Tyrod will be forced to throw the ball, and against one of the worst pass defenses in the league Taylor had only a 57% completion rate, threw one interception and took two sacks. With a healthy linebacking corps, Charles Clay may get targets, but not anything useful. Cam was equally woeful against an equally poor secondary in San Francisco. I think this game goes under and I have zero interest in it for DFS this week.
2- Minnesota at Pittsburgh can shoot out, despite quality defense. Game total exceeds 45 points.
While the Steelers disappointed in Cleveland, they are still one of the best offenses to target while at home. At home in 2016 they scored 10 more TDs, had 40 more first downs and Big Ben saw his completion rate jump by 10%. As the QB goes, so goes the offense. And while the Vikings defense is formidable, they have increased their pace of play this year, according to Pro Football Focus. More possessions for the Steelers means more volume for some of the best skill position players in the NFL. I like this game to go overlooked.
3- Trevor Simian has a solid fantasy week as a home dog and leads the Broncos over their team total.
Home dogs have outperformed expectations traditionally, according to Jonathan Bales study in ‘Fantasy Football for Smart People’. (Brees also a home dog) And while Simian is not sexy, he managed to create 3 touchdowns and get a win against a Chargers defense that projects to be one of the better units in the league. Dallas was effective in stuffing the Giants at home but Sanders and Thomas both have significant matchup advantages against according to Pro Football Focus, and their differential in points allowed at home v the road was massive in 2016.