NFL DFS

Seven Up/Down

Here’s seven plays I like more than usual this week and seven I like less in their match-up.

UP

  1. QB Philip Rivers, SD. The Chargers actually managed a solid passing day against the Broncos dominant unit. Miami’s secondary is no where near as good and are traveling cross country after a hectic week dealing with hurricane Irma.
  2. RB Ezekiel Elliot, DAL. I usually don’t like including players of this caliber but this is a PSA to put Zeke in all of your lineups at $7,900. Denver is mediocre against the run and with Dallas on the road the game plan is run the ball no matter what. Imagine what his stat line from last week would have looked like with a touchdown.
  3. RB Marshawn Lynch, OAK. This feels like one of those spots that is so obvious after it happens, like, “Of course Marshawn was the top RB value at the Jets.” The season was over before it began for Gang Green and the only question to be answered Sunday is whether the Raiders cover the 14.5 spread. Lynch looked sharp in the opener and will likely put a TD on the board, if not two.
  4. WR Tyreek Hill, KC. Hill is a coverage nightmare. If you lose track of him for a second it’s a fatal mistake. Andy Reid is good at scheming that and the Eagles secondary is shifting parts after Ronald Darby’s injury. Hill will see a lot of Jalen Mills in coverage. He’s going to be chalky, but the upside is too good to pass up.
  5. WR Corey Davis TEN. Watch his highlights from Sunday. The Terrell Owens comparisons are not overstated. He’s sharp out of his breaks and strong going up for the ball. This should be a competitive game, meaning the Titans will throw more than they typically prefer. Mariota seemed to be looking his way with confidence as well. Both starting Jags corners got DNPs this week, so that’s worth monitoring.
  6. TE Rob Gronkowski NE. Another guy that’s probably too good for this list but his price is just too low to not point out at $6,900. If you think the Patriots score their 30+ implied points and Gronk isn’t getting a big piece of that you’re crazy. The Chiefs neutralized him last week using top safety Eric Berry to cover him exclusively. The Saints don’t have a DB that’s in Eric Berry’s stratosphere.
  7. DEF LA Rams. It’s going to be chalky after their week 1 performance but it doesn’t matter. They’re home against a Washington team that gave up four sacks and four turnovers. Oh, and they’re getting the best DT in the game back this game with Aaron Donald ending his holdout (sorry JJ Watt fans, Donald is #1). There’s going to be plenty of scoring out of this unit.

Down

  1. QB Cam Newton, CAR. Cam just doesn’t look right. He missed most of the preseason after off-season shoulder surgery. There’s timing issues with his receivers and his rushing is being reigned in to start this year. The Bills also have a solid line that could compound those issue.
  2. RB Jordan Howard, CHI. It feels like the Howard hate is going into the realm of too far, but I’m adding to it this week. The Bucs have an excellent D-line and linebackers that are plus run defenders. If Bears guard Kyle Long is out again, they’re going to have a hard time running between the tackles. Tarik Cohen is also a sudden threat to his workload, especially if they fall behind to a high flying offense.
  3. RB DeMarco Murray, TEN. Sunday did not go as planned for the Titans in their loss to Oakland. Maybe it was game flow but 12 rushes and 2 targets isn’t going to feed the bulldog at Murray’s price. Derrick Henry also siphoned more carries than expected. Murray may have a lingering leg issue from the preseason.
  4. WR Terelle Pryor Sr., WAS. It was good to see how often Kirk Cousins tried to force Pryor the ball, but they aren’t on the same page yet. The Eagles have a plus pass rush that caused problems last week but it doesn’t get any better with the Rams unit this week. He’s also going to see coverage from stellar corner Trumaine Johnson.
  5. WR Devante Parker, MIA. Parker will have a tough time getting open against the Chargers physical corner duo, plus he figures to draw Casey Heyward more often. Miami has plenty of other options for Cutler to throw to and the last thing Adam Gase wants is for him to force the ball.
  6. TE Jimmy Graham, SEA. The Seahawks offense is out of sorts in a big way. They’re fielding one of the worst O-line’s in the league. Even Russell Wilson can’t evade this many clean rushers. All that adds up to unpredictability for all the Seahawk targets.
  7. DEF Denver Broncos. You still can’t pass on them but you don’t have to. The D-line is banged up and their opponents know it’s their weak spot. Zeke and the Dallas run blockers are going to bully this team in their own building.

Follow Roto-Wan on Twitter @Roto_Wan. 

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