NFL DFS Strategy

The Chalkboard Week 2 – Quarterback

Hey LineupLogic listeners! I would like to welcome you to “The Chalkboard”. In these articles I will be determining which players on Fanduel are chalky (highest ownership percentages) and trying to decide which players may go lower owned. Selecting these high-upside, lower owned players will give us an edge on competition in GPPs.

Since Quarterback is one of the most predictable positions, there aren’t as many viable contrarian options. I am going to start including a 0-100 point per dollar grade to determine how much I like each option. Here’s a quick description of what point per dollar means for those that don’t know.

Points Per Dollar: How many points will a player score per thousand dollars spent on them.

Example:

1.) Player 1 who’s price was $9,000 scored 22 fantasy points. To determine the PPD value, you divide 22 points by 9 thousand dollars spent. 22/9 = 2.44 points per dollar

2.) Player 2 who’s price was $7,000 scored 18 fantasy points. Divide his 18 points by 7 thousand dollars spent. 18/7 = 2.57 points per dollar.

In this scenario, player 2 offered more value per dollar spent which makes him an overall better play.

Anyways, sorry for rambling. Let’s get into our QB breakdown.

The Chalkboard – Quarterbacks

Chalky Options

Tom Brady ($9,200) NE @ NO – 14%

Why? – The Saints defense is awful and the Patriots have the highest implied team total of the week. People will be all over Brady.

Like/Dislike – Like – Great matchup that Vegas expects to be very high scoring. I think week 1 was a fluke and expect him to get back on track against a poor Saints secondary.

Grade – 91/100 – I don’t like taking the highest owned players, but I will definitely have a good amount of exposure to Brady this week.

Aaron Rodgers ($9,100) GB @ ATL – 11%

Why? – Green Bay is expected to have a shootout against the Falcons this week. You better believe he’ll be heavily owned in all formats.

Like/Dislike – Like – Did I mention Rodgers is an underdog in a shootout? Prime spot to unleash his 4-5 touchdown upside.

Grade- 92/100 – I think Rodgers will perform slightly better than Brady this week. He has far more competent wideouts and a running back that should draw a bit of attention from the defense.

Matt Ryan ($8,200) GB @ ATL 10%

Why? – Ryan is one of the cheaper top tier options. Those that want a bit of salary relief will go with him over the other options at this price point.

Like/Dislike – Like – Umm…how can you not be in love with the Matt Ryan/Julio Jones stack this week? Let me be clear though, I like Julio Jones more than Ryan this week. I see Jones with 2 TD upside, but those may be Ryan’s only touchdowns.

Grade – 85/100 – Good upside, but I’m not sold on Ryan yet. His performance against a terrible Bears defensive unit was lackluster. He’s not my absolute favorite option, but he’s safe play this week.

Drew Brees ($8,700) NE @ NO – 9%

Why? – This game is expected to be very high scoring and the Pats just got decimated by Alex Smith…Alex “only use me against bad defenses” Smith.

Like/Dislike – Like – The Saints will most likely be trailing most of the game. They should be throwing the ball a ton and playing catch up throughout most of this game. He’ll have plenty of opportunities to put up fantasy points on Sunday.

Grade – 85/100 – He could end up being the highest scoring QB this week, but I don’t think he will be. He doesn’t have as much of a PPD floor as Rodgers and Brady, but he’s still a serviceable QB1 option this week.

Russell Wilson ($8,100) SF @ SEA – 8%

Why? – San Francisco is a well known terrible defense. The Seahawks have a high implied team total and this will make Wilson a mid-owned option.

Like/Dislike – Like – I am comfortable saying that last week was a fluke. There is no way that he will replicate that terrible performance. Thomas Rawls is expected to return this week which will draw some of the 49ers attention leaving Wilson to pick them apart.

Grade – 90/100 – Wilson is one of the best point per dollar options this week. I am comfortable starting him without hesitation.

Derek Carr ($8,300) NYJ @ OAK – 7%

Why? – I think he would be higher owned, but you can pay $100 less and get Matt Ryan in a shootout. He will still be popular due to Oakland’s implied team total.

Like/Dislike – Like – Carr has plenty of weapons around him, but I think Oakland may focus on the run after getting an early lead. Even though he has a ton of upside against a terrible defense, I will have limited exposure due to blowout potential.

Grade – 80/100 – Sure, I think Carr has upside. Oakland will probably run the ball a decent amount once they are in the lead. This decreases Carr’s upside a little bit and I would rather pay down for Matt Ryan.

Pivots/Lower-Owned Options

Jameis Winston ($7,800) CHI @ TB 6%

Why? – Winston didn’t play in week 1, so curiosity will bring him some ownership.

Like/Dislike – Like – I like Winston despite Matt Ryan’s mediocre performance against the Bears. He has some pretty good options all around. Mike Evans as a red zone threat, Desean Jackson as a deep threat and Cameron Brate as a decent receiving tight end. Winston has all the weapons to put together a solid campaign. The question is, can he do it?

Grade – 85/100 – I think Winston is a really solid option if you’re looking for somebody in this price point. I would rather pay $300 more for Russell Wilson though.

Carson Palmer ($7,500) ARI @ IND – 5%

Why? – What will Arizona do with David Johnson out? They are going to throw the ball and everybody knows it. I just don’t know how many people will trust Palmer.

Like/Dislike – Undecided – I’m on the fence about Palmer. I know the Cardinals are going to throw the ball a lot, but what will Palmer do with those throws? I will probably have him in at least one line because of the matchup and upside, but I won’t go crazy and roster him in a ton of lines. I don’t think you should either.

Grade – 80/100 – He has a decent amount of upside against a poor Colts defense. I don’t think he will do enough with that to pick him over Rivers at $7,000.

Philip Rivers ($7,000) MIA @ LAC – 5%

Why? – This price is insane for a QB with as good of a track record as Rivers. His ownership may be higher, but I think people will be paying up for QB this week.

Like/Dislike – Like – Rivers is my favorite option this week. Miami has a solid D-line. The same cannot be said about their secondary. It definitely needs some work and it can easily be exploited. I expect Rivers to do just that this week.

Grade – 95/100 – I don’t see a better value on the board this week. $7,000 is far too cheap for a consistent, high upside QB like Rivers.

That’s it for my week 2 Quarterback breakdown. Be sure to check out my RB, WR and TE “chalkboard” articles as well. Follow me on twitter @joejberg where I am open to answering any fantasy related questions you may have. Thanks for reading and let’s go out and make some money!

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