NFL DFS Strategy

The Chalkboard Week 2 – Tight Ends

Hey, LineupLogic listeners! I would like to welcome you to the“The Chalkboard”. In these articles, I will be determining which players on Fanduel are chalky (highest ownership percentages) and trying to decide which players may go lower owned. Selecting these high-upside, lower owned players will give us an edge on the competition in GPPs.

For each option, I will give my projected ownership, why I believe they will be owned at that percentage and whether I like or dislike that player this week. Starting this week, I will also be including a 0-100 point per dollar grade to determine how much I like each option.

The Chalkboard – Tight Ends

 

Chalky Options

Rob Gronkowski ($8,100) NE @ NO – 22%

Why? – Best tight end in football with the highest implied team total against an awful defense.
Like/Dislike – Like – Obviously most elite play at TE this week. If you can afford him, play him. No explanation needed.
Grade – 100/100

Marcellus Bennett ($5,800) GB @ ATL – 15%

Why? – High implied team total and we know how much Aaron Rodgers loves his tight ends, regardless if they can catch or not (*cough cough) Jermichael Finley (*cough cough).
Like/Dislike – Like – Aaron Rodgers seems to like throwing the ball to him and he looks like he’s going to be a big part of the offense going forward.
Grade – 90/100

Zach Ertz ($6,100) PHI @ KC – 10%

Why? – Gets lots of targets and is Ginger Jesus’s favorite target. Playing against the Chiefs will lower ownership a little, but not enough to make him a sleeper.
Like/Dislike – Dislike – I like him a bit because of the injury to Eric Berry, but I want to see how the Chiefs perform without him before streaming TEs against them.
Grade – 75/100

Jared Cook ($5,100) NYJ @ OAK – 10%

Why? – Low cost and high implied team total. Derek Carr finally has a decent receiving TE.
Like/Dislike – Like – Hoping he goes lower owned because this could be a great spot for Cook. Everybody will be on Cooper/Crabtree, but I think a decent amount will still realize Cook’s potential.
Grade – 80/100

 

Pivots/Lower-Owned Options


Jimmy Graham ($6,300) SF @ SEA – 8.5%

Why? – Not elite like he was in New Orleans, but still known as a decent option. Even though he won’t be as chalky as above options, he will still garner some ownership because of the matchup.
Grade – 85/100 – I like him this week because he can still post elite numbers while slipping under the radar. Not as good of an option as Gronk, but he’s in a decent place to save some salary.

Coby Fleener ($5,300) NE @ NO – 7%

Why? – Solid fantasy production last week, but I think people will either drop to Cook or go up to Bennett making Fleener a nice pivot.
Grade – 90/100 – Dont’a Hightower is out and I think that will give Fleener a better matchup against the Pats. He could have a really solid game here.

Julius Thomas ($5,000) MIA @ LAC – 5%

Why? – I think people will overlook him because he’s so cheap and he hasn’t been the same TE he was back in Denver.
Grade – 92/100 – There are a lot of weapons in the Dolphins receiving core, but I trust that Cutler will feel safe throwing to Thomas. One of my favorite pivots this week due to his good TD upside.

Cameron Brate ($5,300) CHI @ TB – 1%

Why? – Nobody knows how the Bucs TE scenario will work out with OJ Howard now in the mix.
Grade – 88/100 – If this goes the way I think it will, Brate will score a TD tomorrow. He had 5 or more targets in 9 of 15 games last season. TEs usually take 1-2 years to become a prominent part of the offense so I think Brate will be a reliable option even with Howard in the mix.

That’s it for my week 2 Tight End breakdown. Be sure to check out my QB, RB and WR “chalkboard” articles as well. Follow me on twitter @JoeJBerg where I am open to answering any fantasy related questions you may have. Thanks for reading and let’s go out and make some money!

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