DFS Cheat Sheets

The Tour Championship @ East Lake Golf Club: Analysis & Picks

Sadly, we are down to 30 players and one final playoff event. The winner of the playoffs takes home $10 million this year and as we all know, the field is made up of the best of the best. This is going to be a shortened version of the usual breakdown as time is running out. East Lake is a very unique course, playing at a modest 7,385 yards and par 70. For a par 70, this is pretty long. Here’s the card:

scard

There are a ton of holes on this course that require accurate, pinpointed tee shots (both long and not-so-long) to give proper angles into greens. The greens are very large and very fast. Both long hitters and short hitters have won the event in the past, so I am going to focus on accuracy and consistency as well as putting and par 4 performance  this week rather than just the long ball hitters. East Lake has 12 par 4’s averaging 450 yards. In the past weather and wind have played a role here, but as of right now, both look relatively tame for this weekend. This link will  bring you to a useful breakdown of where each of the 30 players stand and what exactly needs to happen this week for them to take home the $10 million first prize:

http://www.pgatour.com/news/2017/09/17/fedexcup-scenarios-golf-tour-championship-east-lake.html

With that said, here’s a highlight of some of my favorite plays this week taking all of this into consideration. As I’ve done past few weeks, all of the stats mentioned are over each player’s past 24 rounds. Remember – there’s no cut, and only 30 players, so it’s going to take a very good line to take home cash – especially in any multi-entry contests. Be smart with your bankroll!

Jordan Spieth: g6rq1rtr11 top-10s and 3 wins on the season, FedEx Cup finishes: 2nd, 2nd, 7th, Thursday and Sunday 65’s put him in the mix last week. 1st in strokes gained tee to green, GIR gained, strokes gained par 4, bogeys avoided, 2nd in 3-putts avoided, 3rd in good drives gained, 7th in strokes gained approach, 9th in strokes gained putting.

East Lake results: 27th in 2014, 1st in 2015, 17th in 2016

Rickie Fowler: 11 top-10s and 1 win on the season, FedExCup finishes: 20th, 13th, 2nd. 9th in strokes gained tee to green, 8th in fairways gained, 15th in good drives gained, 5th in strokes gained off the tee, 9th in GIR gained, 1st in strokes gained putting, 2nd in strokes gained par 4, 5th in birdies gained, 3rd in bogeys avoided.

East Lake results: 8th in 2014, 12th in 2015

Jason Day: 5 top-10s and 0 wins on the season, FedEx Cup finishes: 6th, 25th, 4th. 4th in strokes gained putting, 4th in strokes gained par 4, 7th in 3-putts avoided, 1st in birdies gained, 8th in bogeys avoided. His accuracy off the tee and tendency to find himself in trouble as of late scares me, but it’s impossible to count him out.

East Lake results: 4th in 2014, 10th in 2015, WD in 2016

Justin Thomas: 8 top-10s and 4 wins on the season, FedEx Cup finishes: 6th, 1st, 47th. Not an impressive showing last weekend. JT is 7th in strokes gained tee to green, 8th in strokes gained par 4, 8th in birdies gained, 6th in bogeys avoided. His stats aren’t all that amazing over the past 24 rounds, but his finishes don’t seem to agree with that.

East Lake results: 6th in 2016

Jon Rahm: 11 top-10s and 2 wins on the season, FedEx Cup finishes: 3rd, 4th, 5th (that means he’ll come in 6th, right?). Rahm sits in 14th strokes gained tee to green, 3rd in strokes gained off the tee, 12th in GIR gained, 6th in strokes gained putting, 10th in strokes gained par 4, 11th in birdies gained, and 13th in bogeys avoided.

East Lake results: No top-20s in the past three years

Justin Rose: 8 top-10s and 0 wins on the season, FedEx Cup finishes: 10th, 10th, 2nd. He looked unbelievable this past Sunday. He currently sits in 13th strokes gained tee to green but really doesn’t have much else worth mentioning here – a lot of 15th to 20th.

East Lake results: 4th in 2014, 2nd in 2015 (I think he likes the course and may have just gotten hot…we’ll see)

Marc Leishman:8955912-3x2-700x467 5 top 10s and 2 wins on the season. He is clearly feeling it – winning last week’s BMW Championship and placing 3rd in the Dell Technologies Championship. His FedEx Cup finishes are: 71st, 3rd, and 1st.  He is in 6th strokes gained tee to green, 8th in strokes gained approach, 5th in GIR gained, 12th in strokes gained putting, 9th in three putts avoided, 9th in strokes gained par 4, 8th in birdies gained, and 12th in bogeys avoided. He has looked great lately, especially this past weekend. The real question is can he perform when he knows $10 million is up for grabs.

East Lake results: No top-20s in the past 3 years

Paul Casey: 6 top-10s and 0 wins on the season, FedEx Cup finishes: 5th, 4th, 33rd. He had a bit of a slip up in the third round last week, but played decent golf. He is 3rd in strokes gained tee to green, and 1st in strokes gained approach.

East Lake results: 5th in 2015 and 4th in 2016

Patrick Cantlay: 4 top-10s and 0 wins on the season, FedEx Cup finishes: 10th, 13th, 9th. Currently 11th in strokes gained tee to green, 1st in good drives gained, 3rd in GIR gained, 2nd in bogeys avoided.

No east lake results in the past 3 years.

Matt Kuchar: 10 top-10s and 0 wins on the season, FedEx Cup finishes: 10th, 56th, 5th. I think his salary is still reflecting that 56th place finish and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s highly owned this week because of it. That one tournament is factored into these 24-round stats, so keep that in mind. He’s 19th in strokes gained tee to green, 1st in fairways gained, 8th in good drives gained, 10th in strokes gained putting, 14th in strokes gained par 4, and 15th in bogeys avoided.

East Lake results: 13th in 2014, 10th in 2015, 15th in 2016

Charley Hoffman: This is a main who I write about a lot and has done both good things and bad things for me. He’s had 6 top-10s this season and 0 wins. His FedEx Cup finishes so far this year are: 17th, 47th, 27th. He’s 8th in strokes gained tee to green, 2nd in good drives gained, 2nd in strokes gained approach, 6th in strokes gained par 4, 6th in birdies gained, 8th in birdies gained, 9th in strokes gained off the tee, and 14th in strokes gained putting. Pretty impressive, but not great finishes the past few weeks.

East Lake results: 22nd in 2015

Other guys I will consider this week: Hideki Matsuyama, Kevin Chappell, Gary Woodland, Tony Finau, Daniel Berger, Kyle Stanley, Xander Schauffele

Thanks again for reading & good luck!

Follow us at: @donaldremington @LineupLogicDFS

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