NFL DFS

Seven Up/Down

Here’s seven plays I like more than usual this week and seven I like less in their match-up.

UP

  1. QB Matt Stafford DET. The Lions are a better offense in the dome. So are the Falcons. Vegas agrees with a 50.5 total. It’s tough guessing which Lions get the work, but it all goes through Stafford. Atlanta losing Vic Beasley is also a relief for Detroit.
  2. RB Kareem Hunt KC. The Chiefs run a good amount of option plays these days. When you have the trio of Hunt, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce with a QB as versatile as Alex Smith it’s a great way to get defenders off balance. That’s been an integral part to Hunt’s success. He’s got great balance and drive, so flat footed tacklers are going to struggle. The Chargers are not tackling well this season either. That’s a great match up to target.
  3. RB Jonathan Stewart CAR. Both Panther backs should see plenty of work against this bad Saints unit, but I like Stewart to grind out the second half of a game they should be winning. He’s also getting goal line looks instead of Cam.
  4. WR Jarvis Landry MIA. The Jets are a popular fantasy target. The best Jet to target is slot corner Buster Skrine, has been for a couple years. Landry was born to play slot WR. Adam Gase wants Jay Cutler minimizing risk, which led to 15 targets for 13 receptions for Landry last week. That volume will do nicely.
  5. WR Terelle Pryor WAS. He’ll spend about half of the night being covered by David Amerson, the guy that just made Jermaine Kearse look like Antonio Brown. Corey Davis also ate Amerson’s lunch on a few deep routes week 1. Kirk Cousins has been forcing the ball to Pryor, that should start paying off Sunday night.
  6. TE Jack Doyle IND. The Browns don’t cover TEs well and the Colts target them more than most. Even more so with Andrew Luck out. Doyle’s a good bet for volume and a touchdown. 
  7. DEF New England Patriots. This one comes down to them containing Deshaun Watson’s rushing. Discipline has always been a staple of Belichick’s defense.

DOWN

  1. QB Russell Wilson SEA. Russ is doing his best to keep them in games, but he’s running for his life most plays. Dick Lebeau quietly surfaced with the Titans last season, bringing in his blitz heavy scheme. I’d anticipate a heavy dose of blitzing being thrown at that beleaguered OL.
  2. RB C.J. Anderson DEN. I don’t think he unusable or anything, but after rolling against the Cowboys, owners should temper expectations for him facing a better Buffalo run D on the road. Mostly I think the Bills D-line is superior to the Broncos O-line, who lost Garrett Bolles last week.
  3. RB Chris Carson SEA. When your O-line blocks like this, you’re going to be facing free tacklers all day. The Titans have a solid front 7, anchored by man-child Jurrell Casey. I’d be shocked if the Seahawks can get anything going on the ground.
  4. WR Michael Crabtree OAK. I don’t believe in shutdown corners, but drawing Josh Norman in coverage will likely dampen Crabtree’s fantasy output. He can’t score a touchdown every game, right?
  5. WR Ted Ginn NO. If you’re chasing a Ted Ginn revenge narrative, don’t.
  6. TE Coby Fleener NO. Fleener’s value has come via touchdowns in his first two games, both in domes. That’s not sustainable and the Panthers LBs are athletic enough to hang with him.
  7. DEF Houston Texans. Belichick owns his former assistants. The Pats hung 34 and 27 points on this defense the last two years. That likely continues, especially with some key injuries in the secondary.

Follow Mike Alexander on Twitter @Roto_Wan. 

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