NFL DFS Strategy

The Chalkboard Week 3 – Quarterbacks

Hey LineupLogic listeners! I would like to welcome you to “The Chalkboard”. In these articles I will be determining which players on Fanduel are chalky (highest ownership percentages) and trying to decide which players may go lower owned. Selecting these high-upside, lower owned players will give us an edge on competition in GPPs.

Quick guide to each subcategory

Why? – why will player be owned at projected percentage.
Like/Dislike (only in Chalky section. I like all of the pivots mentioned.)  – Whether I like or dislike player this week.
Grade – Grade is 0-100 scale of how much I like each player as a point per dollar option.

The Chalkboard – Quarterback

 

Chalky Options

 

Aaron Rodgers ($9,300) CIN @ GB – 12.5%

Why? – High implied team total. Value at other spots means people can pay up at QB.

Like/Dislike – Like – Lots of weapons and Rodgers will always be a safe option.

Grade – 93/100

Derek Carr ($8,400) WAS @ OAK – 11%

Why? – Highest game total and tied for the highest implied team total.

Like/Dislike – Dislike – I actually think this game will hit the under. I don’t see nearly as much upside in Carr as I did against the Jets last week and don’t think he will have as good of a game as expected.

Grade – 82/100

Tom Brady ($9,400) HOU @ NE – 10%

Why? – Lots of value at other positions so people can pay up at QB. Tied for highest implied team total.

Like/Dislike – Dislike – Honestly, I’m probably fading Brady this week. They will be ahead so they will run the ball a lot. Plus, I don’t know who to pair him with.

Grade – 80/100

Matt Ryan ($8,500) ATL @ DET – 9%

Why? – Implied team total of 27 and he’s reliable.

Like/Dislike – MEH – I’m indifferent about Ryan. I think there are better point per dollar options on this slate, but he’s still very solid. I’ll probably end up playing him paired with Julio, Sanu or Hooper in a couple lines, but that’s about it.

Grade – 88/100

Pivots

 

Matthew Stafford ($7,900) ATL @ DET – 7.5%

Why? – High implied game total. Expected to be a shootout.

Grade – 95/100 – Easily one of my favorite plays. His price is too low for what he can do. He has too many options to throw to and I can’t see the Falcons shutting down all of them. I’ll have him in 10-15% of my lines.

Ben Roethlisberger ($8,000) – 6.5%

Why? – Matchup against the Bears is juicy. People will be more focused on other options around this price point though.

Grade – 87/100 – I think this game will get out of hand quickly and the Steelers will switch to a more run based offense. He does have 3-4 TD upside though which makes him a nice pivot this week.

Kirk Cousins ($7,600) – 6% 

Note: This percentage is very hit or miss. I can’t tell how people are going to use Cousins this week. I think he will be lower owned than people think.

Why? – Highest implied game total this week. Lower owned due to recent performances.

Grade – 91/100 – One of the better point per dollar options on the slate. Has the upside of Matt Ryan with the cost of Philip Rivers. Love it!

Jay Cutler ($7,400) MIA @ NYJ – 4%

Why? – He’s facing the Jets. If he weren’t, he would be owned roughly around 1%.

Grade – 87/100 – As much as it pains me to say, Cutler looked good this past week versus the Chargers. He has a ton of weapons and the Jets will focus on stopping Ajayi.

Andy Dalton ($6,800) CIN @ GB – 2%

Why? – Bengals still have yet to score a TD. He will be overlooked.

Grade – 85/100 – The Bengals WILL score this week. I’m playing Dalton in one or two lines strictly for ownership leverage.

 

DEEP Punt play of the week

Deshaun Watson ($7,000) HOU @ NE – 0.5%

Why? – He plays for the Texans. You know, the team with one good player on offense.

Grade – 80/100 – Half of me is going to play him because the Patriots defense might actually be as bad as they have been playing. The other half of me is going to play him just to piss everybody off. Listen, if he can’t find a receiver he is going to run it and those yards add up. I’m only going to have him in 1 line, but I don’t think he will have as bad of a game as people think. I’m probably wrong though.

 

Honorable Mention: Drew Brees ($8,400) and Carson Wentz ($7,700)

 

That’s it for my week 3 Quarterback breakdown. Be sure to check out my RB, WR and TE “chalkboard” articles as well. Follow me on twitter @joejberg where I am open to answering any fantasy related questions you may have. Thanks for reading and let’s go out and make some money!

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