NFL DFS Strategy

The Chalkboard Week 3 – Running Backs

Hey LineupLogic listeners! I would like to welcome you to “The Chalkboard”. In these articles, I will be determining which players on Fanduel are chalky (highest ownership percentages) and trying to decide which players may go lower owned. Selecting these high-upside, lower owned players will give us an edge on the competition in GPPs.

Quick guide to each subcategory
Why? – Why will the player be owned at the projected percentage.
Like/Dislike (only in Chalky section. I like all of the pivots mentioned.)  – Whether I like or dislike player this week.
Grade – Grade is 0-100 scale of how much I like each player as a point per dollar option.

 

The Chalkboard – Running Back

 

Chalky Options

 

Kareem Hunt ($8,300) KC @ LAC – 22.5%

Why? – 229 rushing yards, 126 receiving yards, 7.6 yards per carry and 5 TDs through 2 games. He’s elite.

Like/Dislike – Like – I was wrong about Hunt. You can’t fade him because his upside is massive.

Grade – 88/100

Jay Ajayi ($8,200) MIA @ NYJ – 18%

Why? – Great volume with a great matchup.

Like/Dislike – Like – Ajayi gets a ton of volume and this matchup is gold. The only issue I have is that he doesn’t seem to be 100% over his injury and it could slightly affect his usage or production.

Grade – 90/100

Ty Montgomery ($7,200) CIN @ GB – 17.5%

Why? – Montgomery has been outstanding in the first 2 weeks. He is very cheap for the amount of upside he brings.

Like/Dislike – Undecided – I think this may be the week Montgomery struggles. I’m not sure what I will do with Ty Mont this week.

Grade – 83/100

Le’Veon Bell ($8,700) PIT @ CHI – 17.5%

Why? – Because…DA BEARS!

Like/Dislike – Like – Don’t be bamboozled by his first 2 performances. Bell is still an elite back with 30 point upside. #LeVeonBamboozleBell

Grade – 95/100

 

Pivots

 

Devonta Freeman ($8,200) ATL @ DET – 10%

Why? – He scored last week so he will draw in some ownership. I think people will be more focused on Ajayi and Hunt this week though.

Grade – 88/100 – If the Vegas line holds true, the Falcons should be ahead in this game. They will run the ball to eat up the clock and Freeman should see a good number of carries.

Christian McCaffrey ($6,800) NO @ CAR – 10%

Why? – The Saints defense sucks. Like a lot…

Grade – 92/100 – One of my favorite plays on the week. I see him finally getting into the end zone against a porous Saints squad.

Mike Gillislee ($6,800) HOU @ NE – 7%

Why? – His matchup isn’t as good as McCaffrey’s which is why he will go slightly overlooked

Grade – 89/100 – His matchup may not be as good, but his overall situation is better than McCaffrey. The Pats will be ahead and should run the ball a ton. I love the amount of volume he will get this week.

Ameer  Abdullah ($6,100) ATL @ DET – 5%

Why? – It’s hard to choose between Riddick and Abdullah on a week-to-week basis so most will stay away.

Grade – 85/100 – Good value play in a high-scoring game. He played well last week and got 18 carries. He could do the same this week and finally get a TD.

Chris Thompson ($5,600) WAS @ OAK – 5%

Why? – I think that all the talk on various sites about the chalky options will make people forget about Thompson.

Grade – 85/100 – Amazing play if Rob Kelly sits. Average play if Rob Kelly plays. The Redskins are implied for 26 points and somebody needs to score. Thompson could easily score 1-2 TDs this week against a mediocre Raiders defense.

 

DEEP Punt play of the week

Joe Mixon ($5,100) CIN @ GB – 0.7%

Why? – Nobody touches any part of the Cincy running back trio.

Grade – 75/100 – Amazing play if new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor decides to lean on Mixon more. I don’t know what he will do so this is a very very risky play. Although it could pay off if he gets more volume.

 

Honorable Mention: Lamar Miller ($6,100), Tarik Cohen ($5,600) and Tevin Coleman ($5,500)

 

That’s it for my week 3 Running Back breakdown. Be sure to check out my QB, WR and TE “chalkboard” articles as well. Follow me on twitter @joejberg where I am open to answering any fantasy related questions you may have. Thanks for reading and let’s go out and make some money!

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