NFL DFS Strategy

The Chalkboard Week 3 – Tight Ends

Hey LineupLogic listeners! I would like to welcome you to the“The Chalkboard”. In these articles, I will be determining which players on Fanduel are chalky (highest ownership percentages) and trying to decide which players may go lower owned. Selecting these high-upside, lower owned players will give us an edge on the competition in GPPs.

 

Quick guide to each subcategory
Why? – Why will the player be owned at the projected percentage.
Like/Dislike (only in Chalky section. I like all of the pivots mentioned.)  – Whether I like or dislike player this week.
Grade – Grade is 0-100 scale of how much I like each player as a point per dollar option.

 

The Chalkboard – Tight Ends

 

Chalky Options

 

Travis Kelce ($7,100) KC @ LAC – 17.5%

Why? – Gets a ton of targets and went off for 20 FDP last week. He will be chalky.

Like/Dislike – Like – I hesitated when writing “like” which isn’t a great sign. I don’t know how much volume he will get each week, but he’s an elite TE and it’s hard not to like him. I’m going to have pretty limited exposure to Kelce because I don’t think he’s the best option.

Grade – 87/100

Zach Ertz ($6,100) PHI vs NYG – 15%

Why? – Obviously the favorite target of Carson Wentz. He will have plenty of targets and ownership each week.

Like/Dislike – Like – Eric Ebron went 5 for 5 for 42 yards and a TD against the Giants on Monday night. What does that mean for Ertz who is averaging 9 targets through 2 weeks?

Grade – 95/100

Rob Gronkowski ($8,400) NE vs HOU – 10%

Why? – His questionable designation is enough for him not to be the highest owned TE this week.

Like/Dislike – Dislike – I’m sorry, but I’m not spending $8,400 on a banged up Gronk.

Grade – 80/100

Kyle Rudolph ($5,400) MIN vs TB – 10%

Why? – Projected as a top 5 fantasy TE this week which will draw in ownership.

Like/Dislike – Dislike – I don’t like playing him with Case Keenum at QB. He doesn’t have the same upside that he does when Bradford plays. I’ll most likely fade him this week.

Grade – 80/100

Jack Doyle ($5,300) IND vs CLE – 10%

Why? – The secret is out on Doyle who hauled in 8 of 8 targets last week. He’s been mentioned on countless podcasts/articles and will be higher owned because of it.

Like/Dislike – Like – Jacoby Brissett loves throwing to him and that makes him a solid play in my book. He’s safe to get 5 to 8 targets every week going forward.

Grade – 90/100 

 

Pivots

 

Austin Hooper ($5,400) ATL @ DET – 5% 

Why? – People will rather play Rudolph or drop to Jack Doyle.

Grade – 90/100 – Detroit can be exploited by Tight Ends. I think this is a solid spot to play Hooper in a high scoring game.

Julius Thomas ($5,100) MIA @ NYJ – 5%

Why? – So many other options available. He’ll get overlooked again this week.

Grade – 95/100 – THIS IS THE WEEK! I know I was hot on thomas last week, but I really do think that he will have a great game this week. One of my favorite pivots.

Zach Miller ($4,800) CHI vs PIT – 1.5%

Why? – It’s a scary thought to take part of the Bears offense. Ownership will be very low.

Grade – 95/100 – Honestly, who else are they going to throw to? Miller had 9 targets last week and he should see the same or more targets. Love him here.

 

Honorable Mention: Eric Ebron ($5,200) and Hunter Henry ($5,500) 

 

That’s it for my week 3 Tight End breakdown. Be sure to check out my QB, RB and WR “chalkboard” articles as well. Follow me on twitter @joejberg where I am open to answering any fantasy related questions you may have. Thanks for reading and let’s go out and make some money!

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