NFL DFS Strategy

The Chalkboard Week 3 – Wide Receivers

Hey LineupLogic listeners! I would like to welcome you to “The Chalkboard”. In these articles, I will be determining which players on Fanduel are chalky (highest ownership percentages) and trying to decide which players may go lower owned. Selecting these high-upside, lower owned players will give us an edge on the competition in GPPs.

Quick guide to each subcategory
Why? – Why will the player be owned at the projected percentage.
Like/Dislike (only in Chalky section. I like all of the pivots mentioned.)  – Whether I like or dislike player this week.
Grade – Grade is 0-100 scale of how much I like each player as a point per dollar option.

 

The Chalkboard – Wide Receivers

 

Chalky Options

 

Antonio Brown ($9,000) PIT @ CHI – 25%

Why? – Once again…DA BEARS

Like/Dislike – Like – DA BEARS! The Bears couldn’t stop Mike Evans, so why should they be able to stop Antonio Brown?

Grade – 92/100

Julio Jones ($9,300) ATL @ DET – 20%

Why? – High implied team and game total. This game should be a shootout.

Like/Dislike – Like – Julio is a good play on any given week. He still hasn’t scored a TD this season. This week is as good of an opportunity as ever.

Grade – 88/100

A.J. Green ($7,500) CIN @ GB – 15%

Why? – This price is way too cheap for A.J. Green and people will be on him.

Like/Dislike – Love – Like I said, this is way too cheap for Green. He only needs 22.5 FDP to hit 3x value this week. That’s 8 receptions for 125 yards and a TD. I think that’s very possible which is why he’s my favorite point per dollar option this week.

Grade – 100/100

Michael Crabtree ($7,700) OAK vs WAS – 15%

Why? – 3 TDs last week and high implied total this week.

Like/Dislike – Dislike – He’s supposed to be guarded by Josh Norman this week and that’s too risky for my blood.

Grade – 70/100

Honorable Mention: Jarvis Landry ($6,800/Like) and Terrelle Pryor ($6,900/Like)

 

Pivots

 

Brandin Cooks ($7.500) HOU @ NE – 10%

Why? – I think a lot of people will give up on Cooks after 2 subpar performances.

Grade – 95/100 – Houston’s No. 1 corner Kevin Joseph is out and no. 2 Jonathan Joseph is questionable. That sets up Cooks against a no. 3 corner. He will show everybody why you can’t fade him.

Odell Beckham Jr. ($8,800) NYG @ PHI – 9%

Why? – Beckham is expected to have close to a full workload this week. Some people will be wary of his injury which is why he’ll go a little bit lower owned.

Grade – 90/100 – The Giants have been a disaster this year. They need Beckham and he should get plenty of targets and receptions this week.

Devin Funchess ($4,800) CAR vs NO – 9%

Why? – Saints defense is bad. There has been lots of talk about Funchess this week so he may be higher owned than this.

Grade – 95/100 – He is so cheap and has massive upside with Greg Olson out of the lineup.

Keenan Allen ($7,200) LAC vs KC – 7%

Why? – A lot of people will think Marcus Peters is covering Allen so they will auto-fade him.

Grade – 88/100 – Allen will be playing in the slot and get his usual workload. There are a lot of options for Philip Rivers in the Chargers receiving core. I don’t know that Allen has as much upside as some of the other options for this reason.

DeSean Jackson ($6,400) TB @ MIN – 4%

Why? – People just don’t play WRs against the Vikings defense.

Grade – 90/100 – Xavier Rhodes should be covering Mike Evans. Rhodes will take Evans out of a good number of plays leading Jameis Winston to look towards his second target, DeSean Jackson. He could be a very sneaky play this week.

Jermaine Kearse ($5,800) MIA @ NYJ – 2.5%

Why? – Nobody wants a Jets receiver.

Grade – 85/100 – Most targeted receiver on the Jets and they will be losing and needing to throw the ball a ton. I’m perfectly okay using Kearse as a punt play this week.

 

DEEP Punt play of the week:

Alex Erickson ($4,500) CIN @ GB – 0.1%

Note (FULL DISCLOSURE): I am 100% biased in this pick so you don’t need to listen to me if you don’t want to. Alex is from a small town 30 minutes from where I live and I played youth football with him when I was little so I love watching him play. Now that you know my bias towards him, let me tell you why I think he’s an interesting DFS play this week.

Why? – Most people probably haven’t even heard of him. That’s why nobody will own him.

Grade – 80/100 (IF THEY USE HIM) – I’ve paid very close attention to his play and he has done very well when he gets put in at WR. He is usually just the KR and PR, but last week he got put in as the slot receiver and had a career high in targets and receptions. Andy Dalton seems to trust him and he hauled in 4 of 6 targets for 62 yards, one target less than Brandon Lafell. On top of that, he was put in over Tyler Boyd who was a healthy scratch. With John Ross and Tyler Eifert out this week, Erickson may be playing in the slot throughout the game. If he plays over Tyler Boyd, I could see a solid game from him at minimum salary.

 

Honorable Mention: Kenny Golladay ($5,900), Adam Thielen ($6,000), Kenny Stills ($5,100) 

 

That’s it for my week 3 Wide Receiver breakdown. Be sure to check out my QB, RB and TE “chalkboard” articles as well. Follow me on twitter @joejberg where I am open to answering any fantasy related questions you may have. Thanks for reading and let’s go out and make some money!

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