NFL DFS

Seven Up/Down

Here’s seven plays I like more than usual this week and seven I like less in their match-up.

UP

  1. QB Marcus Mariota TEN. Mariota has been consistent this year, but hasn’t had a signature performance yet. Look for one to come this week in a huge division game with Houston. Deshaun Watson’s ability to keep plays alive might also keep the Texans in the game, forcing Tennessee to call a more aggressive game.
  2. RB Leonard Fournette JAX. This shapes up to be a performance that cements Fournette as an RB1. Expect the Jags to do the things Miami failed to last week: stick with the run, play defense, don’t turn it over. That last one is always up in the air with Blake Bortles at QB but he seems to understand what the staff wants from him.
  3. RB Bilal Powell NYJ. With Matt Forte limited down the stretch last season’s final four games Powell average 20 carries and 100 yards per game. Not to mention some solid receiving work. The Jaguars boast three plus corners to cover the Jets middling WRs. That could lead to a nice PPR floor with some TD upside.
  4. WR Adam Thielen MIN. I’m a believer in Stefon Diggs ability to beat any corner. Darius Slay is a true shadow corner, however. It will just be easier to pick on slot corner Quandre Diggs with someone as reliable as Thielen.
  5. WR Marquise Goodwin SF. With an aDOT of 14 on 5.7 average targets he’s got the most opportunity of anyone this cheap. Consider the coverage match ups for San Fran’s other WRs and Goodwin just makes sense.
  6. TE Cameron Brate TB. It feels like all Brate does is score touchdowns. The Giants have given up the second most fantasy points to TEs. In the tempest that is tight end here’s your port in a storm.
  7. DEF LA Chargers. The Charger defense seems to match the Eagles strengths. They’re good in coverage and have a plus pass rush. 

DOWN

  1. QB Derek Carr OAK. Denver’s defense is back to 2015 levels. Avoid at all costs. 
  2. RB Carlos Hyde SF. The Cardinals limit opposing RBs well. I think they sell out to stop the run and let their secondary do the rest against a mediocre passing attack. 
  3. RB Ameer Abdullah DET. I don’t think the Detroit staff is aggressive enough to produce big fantasy days. That’s compounded by a three way back rotation. 
  4. WR Amari Cooper OAK. See Denver, defense. 
  5. WR Brandon Marshall NYG. Don’t be fooled by his day against the soft Eagles secondary. The Bucs have struggled there as well but have talented corners. I think Marshall’s best days as a startable WR are passed. 
  6. TE Jason Witten DAL. Maybe it’s ageism but I just can’t see Witten scoring TDs enough to support his early production. 
  7. DEF Houston Texans. The Titans are scoring 28+ points per game. Houston has struggled on defense. Not a good spot for them. 

Follow Mike Alexander on Twitter @Roto_Wan. 

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