NFL DFS

The Chalkboard Week 4 – Quarterback

Hey LineupLogic listeners! I would like to welcome you to “The Chalkboard”. In these articles, I will give my take on which chalky players you should avoid and players that will go under-owned. Choosing some of these lower owned players in GPPs will give you an edge on the competition and possibly help you take home some serious cash.

Quick guide to each subcategory
Why? – why will player be owned at projected percentage.
Grade – Grade is 0-100 scale of how much I like each player as a point per dollar option.

 

After some thought, I decided that it doesn’t help you to give my opinion on which high-owned players I like. Obviously Aaron Rodgers will be owned at a high percentage every week and I obviously like him most weeks. I am going to stop being safe about my predictions and try to give a more contrarian approach to the higher-owned options you should fade.

 

The Chalkboard – Quarterbacks

 

Chalky players you should fade

 

Tom Brady ($9,500) NE vs CAR – 15%

Why? – Past 2 games Brady had over 30 points, highest implied team total on slate and only QB in price point.

Grade – 80/100 – I’m completely fading Brady this week. It’s not that I don’t think he’s elite and will put up points. I just don’t think he’s even a top 5 point per dollar option this week. In 5 games against the Panthers, Brady has thrown 7 touchdowns with 5 interceptions and has a passer rating of 80. He needs to score 28.5 points to hit 3x value! Can he do it? Sure. Will he do it? I highly doubt it. I would rather go with a guy like Dak Prescott who only needs 22.8 points to hit that same value at a much lower price.

Matt Ryan ($8,000) ATL vs BUF – 10%

Why? – Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees aren’t on this slate. That makes Ryan the second highest priced QB. That automatically draws in ownership.

Grade – 85/100 – Guess what? Buffalo hasn’t allowed a passing TD this year. Take into account that they have played against amazing studs like Josh McCown, Cam Newton and Trevor Semien. He will probably end up throwing for 4 TDs just to spite me, but I think this defense is too good and there are much better options this week.

Okay…I may play him in one lineup just in case.

 

Low-owned pivots

 

Matt Stafford ($7,700) DET @ MIN – 4.5%

Why? – No over/under for this game yet which causes uncertainty while selecting players.

Grade – 90/100 – Minnesota isn’t that great against the pass besides Xavier Rhodes. Stafford shouldn’t have to worry about one guy when he has 4 or 5 reliable options in the passing game. Plus, a vast majority of people will be paying $100 less for Dak Prescott or $200 more for Russell Wilson. Stafford is the sexy pivot sandwiched in the middle.

Carson Wentz ($7,600) PHI @ LAC – 4%

Why? – Wentz seems to go under owned each week for some reason or another. I’m still wondering why myself.

Grade – 92/100 – On first glance it looks like Wentz might struggle here. So far this season, the Chargers have allowed the 6th highest passer rating at 104.7. Versus the Chargers, no QB has had over 33 passing attempts. This game has a high over/under and should be close so I’m guessing Wentz will throw around 40 passes. The Chargers are still without Jason Verrett and I think they will get picked apart by Wentz.

Marcus Mariota ($7,700) TEN @ HOU – 4%

Why? – Houston is generally known for their amazing defense. People would rather pay $100 less and take Dak Prescott who is considered a safer option.

Grade – 95/100 – I love Mariota this week. Houston has only played against 1 good QB this year (Tom Brady) and they got torched. I’m going to have Mariota in a ton of my lineups this week and you should too!

 

DEEP punt play of the week

Josh McCown ($6.500) – less than 1%

Why? – Jacksonville ranks “first” against the pass and McCown is “bad”.

Grade – 85/100 – Did the parentheses convey my sarcasm? Good. Let me start with this. The Jags have played against Tom Savage, Joe Flacco and Marcus Mariota. Tom Savage is worse than Marques Tuiasosopo, Joe Flacco should have retired along with Steve Smith and the Titans game was a blowout so Mariota only threw 27 passes. Josh McCown has the 5th highest completion percentage in the NFL. Yeah, you heard that right. He’s finding guys to throw to when he shouldn’t and he’s completing those passes. Eventually he will have a nice game and I wouldn’t find it unbelievable against the Jags. He’s not the best option, but he’s the second cheapest starting QB you can get.

 

That’s it for my week 3 Quarterback breakdown. Be sure to check out my RB, WR and TE “chalkboard” articles as well. Follow me on twitter @JoeJBerg where I am open to answering any fantasy related questions you may have. Thanks for reading and let’s go out and make some money!

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