NFL DFS

The Chalkboard Week 4 – Running Back

Hey LineupLogic listeners! I would like to welcome you to “The Chalkboard”. In these articles, I will give my take on which chalky players you should avoid and players that will go under-owned. Choosing some of these lower owned players in GPPs will give you an edge on the competition and possibly help you take home some serious cash.

Quick guide to each subcategory
Why? – why will player be owned at projected percentage.
Grade – Grade is 0-100 scale of how much I like each player as a point per dollar option.

 

After some thought, I decided that it doesn’t help you to give my opinion on which high-owned players I like. Obviously, Aaron Rodgers will be owned at a high percentage every week and I obviously like him most weeks. I am going to stop being safe about my predictions and try to give a more contrarian approach to the higher-owned options you should fade.

 

The Chalkboard – Running Backs

 

Chalky players you should fade/be cautious about

 

There aren’t any chalky running backs that are complete fades for me, but you should be cautious when rostering these guys.

 

Joe Mixon ($5,600) CIN @ CLE – 15%

Why? – Mixon got the majority of the workload last week and he should continue to get volume meaning he’ll be owned highly at only $5,600.

Grade – 85/100 – I like Mixon this week, but you need to take caution. The Browns have only allowed 3.1 YPC to running backs this season. That being said, they haven’t played against any great RBs besides Le’Veon Bell who was limited to 10 carries. Because of the small sample size, I have no problem playing Mixon in 1 or 2 lineups, just be very cautious and limit your exposure.

Dalvin Cook ($7,500) MIN vs DET – 11%

Why? – Cook has been amazing so far in his rookie campaign. Last week he had 25.4 FDP which will draw in ownership.

Grade – 82/100 – Detroit has fared pretty well against the run this year allowing only 2 TDs and 4.0 YPC. This game should be close meaning Cook will see a decent number of touches. I’m just not sure what he will do with them against an above average Detroit defense.

DeVonta Freeman ($8,500) ATL vs BUF – 10%

Why? – High implied team total. Solid performances past 2 weeks.

Grade – 80/100 – He could very easily get a TD this week, but I don’t think he will get as many yards as people think. Buffalo has only allowed 3.4 YPC and 2 TDs this year. I think their defense is better than most think and see this game going under the implied total.

 

Low owned pivots

 

Bilal Powell ($6,100) NYJ vs JAC – 9%

Why? – Focus will be on Mixon and take ownership off of Powell.

Grade – 100/100 – Matt Forte is out and if Powell gets as many touches as I think he will get, he should be the best point per dollar option on the board this week. Jacksonville has allowed 4.8 YPC this year and have played against Houston, Tennessee and Baltimore who all have mid to low tier rushing attacks. Powell is in a prime spot this week.

Frank Gore ($5,900) IND @ SEA – 2.5%

Why? – He’s old…like so OLD!

Grade – 87/100 – Last week Indy proved they aren’t afraid to give Gore volume as he had 25 carries. I think he should get a good amount of touches this week too against a Seattle defense giving up a league worst 5.2 YPC to RBs this year.

Andre Ellington ($4,800) ARI vs SF – 2%

Why? – Arizona’s rushing attack has been all over the place after David Johnson’s injury. People tend to stay away.

Grade – 92/100 – Ellington made the most of his touches last week and I think he will get more this week because of it. He got targeted 8 times in the passing game last week…EIGHT TIMES! That is crazy for a $4,800 running back. San Francisco got decimated by Todd Gurley last week and I think Ellington can do the same if he receives more touches.

 

That’s it for my week 3 Running Back breakdown. Be sure to check out my QB, WR and TE “chalkboard” articles as well. Follow me on twitter @JoeJBerg where I am open to answering any fantasy related questions you may have. Thanks for reading and let’s go out and make some money!

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