Hey LineupLogic listeners! I would like to welcome you to “The Chalkboard”. In these articles, I will give my take on which chalky players you should avoid and players that will go under-owned. Choosing some of these lower owned players in GPPs will give you an edge on the competition and possibly help you take home some serious cash.
Quick guide to each subcategory
Why? – why will the player be owned at the projected percentage.
Grade – Grade is 0-100 scale of how much I like each player as a point per dollar option.
The Chalkboard – Running Backs
Chalky players you should fade
Ezekiel Elliot ($8,900) DAL vs GB – 15%
Why? – Highest implied total on the slate and Green Bay is mediocre against the run.
Grade – 70/100 – Elliot has only had one 100 yard rushing game this year. He hasn’t nearly as well as the other players in this price tier so I will be fading Elliot this week.
Jay Ajayi ($7,300) MIA vs TEN – 12%
Why? – Miami’s offense will be popular against a bad Tennessee defense.
Grade – 75/100 – I’m not completely sure how I feel about Ajayi. He could have a solid game, but I don’t see it happening. He’s averaging just 3.6 YPC this year and the Titans are decent against the run, only allowing 3.8 YPC (ranked 10th) on 118 carries (8th highest). I get that Ajayi has only been getting fewer touches because Miami has been blown out in the past 2 games, but he hasn’t done anything with the touches that he has gotten. I need to see that he and Miami can overcome this slump before trusting him again.
Bilal Powell ($6,600) NYJ @ CLE – 10%
Why? – His performance last week was incredible and he is now on the radar of everybody.
Grade – 80/100 – Cleveland has been great against the run allowing only 3.0 YPC to RBs this season. While that could be flukey and Powell has the skill set to put up a good game, I would rather take somebody like Christian McCaffrey for $400 less this week.
Low owned pivots
Melvin Gordon ($7,100) LAC @ NYG – 8%
Why? – He got limited touches last week and I think that will scare some people off.
Grade – 95/100 – My favorite option next to Le’Veon Bell. Out of 5 RBs with 10 or more carries against the Giants, 4 of them have had 5 or more yards per carry. Gordon complained about not seeing enough touches last week and I think that the coaching staff will realize that they are 0-4 and something needs to change. I see him getting 18-25 total touches this week and I think he’s a lock for a TD this week with Branden Oliver ruled out. One other thing to note is that the implied total for the Chargers has moved 1.2 points in their favor. Remember when that happened last week with the Rams? How did Todd Gurley perform again?
Leonard Fournette ($7,600) JAC @ PIT – 7.5%
Why? – Any offensive player against Pittsburg automatically has lower ownership.
Grade – 91/100 – Pittsburg may be amazing against the pass, but they are terrible against the run. They are allowing 4.6 YPC and have given up 4 rushing TDs this year. They have faced ELITE runners such as Isaiah Crowell, Jordan Howard, Dalvin Cook and Terrence West. Okay, two of those guys are decent, but seriously, 4.6 yards per carry? All of these offenses have one thing in common, terrible QBs (Vikings were without Sam Bradford). I’m not saying that Blake Bortles is bad. All I am saying is that he’s not the next Vinny Testaverde.
Christian McCaffrey ($6,200) CAR @ DET – 5%
Why? – A player that is heavily owned and has a lackluster performance always goes overlooked the following week.
Grade – 93/100 – The Lions have played against two teams with receiving backs, Arizona and Atlanta. Their backs combined for 14 receptions on 17 targets for 177 yards. For those of you who don’t want to do the math, that is 12.6 yards per reception. They are super prone to getting torched by this style of running back and McCaffrey could end the season as the best receiving back in the game. He’s averaging 5.5 receptions per game and if he gets 12.6 yards per reception, that puts him at 70 receiving yards on let’s say 6 catches. That is automatically 10 points and he definitely has TD upside against a team that has this much trouble with similar RBs. He could easily be the steal of the week.
Alex Collins ($5,700) BAL @ OAK – 2%
Why? – Nobody knows who Baltimore will hand the ball off to and that will cause incredibly low ownership.
Grade – 87/100 – I would rate his as the best point per dollar option if I knew he would get the lions share of carries. I just don’t know how John Harbaugh plans on using Collins going forward due to his fumbling problems. If he’s smart, he will let him work it out.
Also Consider Elijah McGuire – Overall, he has been performing better on a per touch basis than Bilal Powell. If I were to go with a Jets RB, it would be McGuire. My reasoning is that the point of playing a GPP is to win it all. McGuire will be owned below 1% and if he gets a TD, you’re automatically that much closer to taking down said GPP. SUPER RISKY PLAY THOUGH.
That’s it for my week 5 Running Back breakdown. Be sure to check out my QB, WR and TE “chalkboard” articles as well. Follow me on twitter @JoeJBerg where I am open to answering any fantasy related questions you may have. Thanks for reading and let’s go out and make some money!