NFL DFS

The Chalkboard Week 6 GPP Strategy – Quarterback

Hey LineupLogic listeners! I would like to welcome you to “The Chalkboard”. In these articles, I will give my take on some possible under-owned pivots to chalky players and why they could be a better option. Choosing some of these lower owned players in GPPs will give you an edge on the competition and possibly help you take home some serious cash.

The Chalkboard – Quarterbacks

 

Chalk

Deshaun Watson ($7,900) Hou vs Cle

Pros – Watson has had 34 points in his last 2 starts. Cleveland is allowing the highest passer rating and completion percentage in the league to opposing QBs.

Cons – I just don’t know how long Watson can keep this going. Obviously, these numbers need to come back to earth, but it’s hard to know which week that will be. I may be one of the only ones, but I’m still not completely sold on Watson as a weekly QB1.

Pivot

Kirk Cousins ($7,800) Was vs SF

Pros – San Francisco has given up an average of 299 passing yards in the past 3 weeks. These games were against Jared Goff, Carson Palmer and Jacoby Brissett. Cousins is a much better QB than these three and he should have an even better game with Rob Kelley ruled out.

Cons – Cousins still doesn’t seem to have great chemistry with Terrelle Pryor and he has only thrown for over 300 yards in one contest this year.

Why pivot to Cousins? – I don’t see Watson having as good of a game as Cousins this week. Sure, Cleveland is bad against the pass, but San Francisco has an overall worse defense. Pair that with the fact the Rob Kelly has been ruled out and the Redskins don’t have many other scoring options. Samaje Perine could score a TD, but I think this game will revolve around Cousins throwing 3-4 TDs and putting up a top-5 fantasy performance this week. Both teams are implied for around 28 points and are heavy favorites. I can see the Texans getting a lead and relying on the run combo of Miller and Foreman and the Redskins (without Rob Kelly) won’t have that luxury.

Chalk

Drew Brees ($8,600) NO vs Det 

Pros – Home matchup vs mediocre Lions pass defense. Saints have a high implied team total in a close game and they should need to pass a lot in this potential shootout.

Cons – The Lions only allowed 16 points to Matt Ryan in a similar game script. I understand that Brees and the Saints are a different animal and the Saints offense can be even more dangerous than the Falcons. However, it is similar enough for me to consider pivoting away from Brees for ownership leverage in a GPP.

Pivot

Matt Stafford ($8,500) Det @ NO

Pros – The Saints are a bottom 6 defense in passing rating, passing yards/game, completion percentage and yards per attempt. Pair that with this game possibly being a shootout and Stafford makes for an incredible play.

Cons – Stafford has yet to throw for over 300 yards in a game this season. Because of the game script, I think this game will be his first, but it’s still something to take note of.

Why pivot to Stafford? – It is well known that Stafford plays better from behind. The Lions are expected to be behind in this game and with the massive shootout potential this game has, it’s not crazy to see Stafford throwing for 3 or 4 maybe even 5 TDs against an awful Saints secondary. His floor is lower, but his ceiling is one of the highest on the slate.

Chalk

Philip Rivers ($7,200) LAC @ Oak 

Pros – Oakland struggles against the pass and Rivers has been incredible so far this year. He has a ton of weapons and has 3-4 touchdown upside on any given week.

Cons – Even though this matchup is good on paper, he could still have a crappy game. Oakland has only allowed 6 passing TDs and Rivers only had 6 points in a great matchup against Kansas City. It wouldn’t completely shock me if a similar outing occurred this week. I’m not saying Rivers will get 6 points, but I could see him being held to a single TD in this game.

Pivot

Kevin Hogan ($6,100) Cle @ Hou 

Pros – Hogan had 18 points in the second half last week after taking over for DeShone Kizer. Houston is without Whitney Mercilus and J.J. Watt and they could slightly struggle to get to Hogan. If he has enough time in the pocket, he’s proven he can be a reliable fantasy asset. His rushing upside isn’t too shabby either.

Cons – The obvious con here is that Houston could still destroy Hogan without J.J. Watt and Mercilus. He’s starting for the first time this season which is nerve-racking and who knows how he will perform. It’s a huge risk, but we saw what Deshaun Watson did in a slightly better situation.

Why pivot to Hogan? – He has great upside between the possibility of a rushing TD as well as multiple passing touchdown upside. He will be under-owned in a matchup that is bad on paper and could be a huge steal this week with the way he performed last in just one half.

 

That’s it for my week 6 Quarterback breakdown. Be sure to check out my RB, WR and TE “chalkboard” articles as well. Follow me on twitter @joejberg where I am open to answering any fantasy related questions you may have. Thanks for reading and let’s go out and make some money!

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