Hey LineupLogic listeners! I would like to welcome you to “The Chalkboard”. In these articles, I will give my take on some possible under-owned pivots to chalky players and why they could be a better option. Choosing some of these lower owned players in GPPs will give you an edge on the competition and possibly help you take home some serious cash.
The Chalkboard – Running Back
The chalk this week is pretty obvious. It’s all the highest priced guys because they all are in good matchups. I will be mentioning guys who are lower priced and have a similar game script to the chalky option mentioned. Because the chalk and pivot are in a similar scenario, you could pivot to the lower priced option to give yourself some salary to spend at another position.
Leonard Fournette ($8,600) Jac vs LAR
Pros – Rams have allowed most red zone carries and most red zone rushing touchdowns of any team in the NFL this year. Fournette has scored in every single game this season and is Jacksonville’s go-to option on offense.
Cons – You know how I mentioned Fournette has scored in every game this year? Sorry to burst your bubble, but that isn’t going to continue for the entire season. “But Joe….Fournette is an incredible player and you mentioned that the Rams are dogs shit against running backs”. Yes, yes I did. Want to know who else is dog shit, Blake Bortles. The Rams defensive coordinator will say to himself, “Hmm…Bortles threw 14 passes last week and the Jags still beat the Steelers. How in the world did they do it? I’m flabbergasted”. Then he will realize that the only offensive threat the Jags have is Fournette. The Rams aren’t bad and they CAN stop the run. They have played against 3 solid QBs (Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott) and 2 bad QBs, Brian Hoyer and Scott Tolzien/Jacoby Brissett. In the 3 games against good QBs, the Rams have allowed 480 yards on 91 carries for an average of 5.2 YPC. However, against teams with bad QBs, the Rams have only allowed 188 yards on 57 carries for 3.3 YPC. This may be a small sample size, but could be telling us to be wary of Fournette this week.
Alvin Kamara ($5,800) NO vs Det
Pros – Detroit is bad against receiving backs. I mentioned this last week and what happened? Christian McCaffrey caught a TD pass and went overlooked. Adrian Peterson was traded to the Cardinals and this will open up more opportunities for Kamara. Here’s the thing. Before Peterson was traded, Kamara had a 35% snap share compared to 52.5% for Mark Ingram. Even with 17.5% less snaps, he has had 3 more red zone opportunities than Ingram. Kamara is averaging 5.5 yards per carry and is averaging 7 targets per game. His opportunities and targets will go up and I love him against Detroit defense who gets decimated by receiving backs.
Cons – Nobody knows what Sean Payton is going to do with the backfield now that Peterson is gone. We all have some idea, but nobody knows for sure and that makes Kamara a somewhat risky pick.
C.J. Anderson ($7,000) Den vs NYG
Pros – The Broncos are HUGE favorites and that means they will take the lead early and run the ball all day. We all saw how the Giants gave up a ton of big plays to Melvin Gordon and this game should play out the same way.
Cons – This is an unlikely what if, BUT…what if the Broncos take a big lead and decide to rest Anderson and let Jamaal Charles or Devontae Booker take the bulk of carries in the second half? Why risk CJ getting injured when you have the game in the bag? I don’t see the Giants scoring much with that mess of an offense and it’s not unbelievable that this could happen.
Mike Gillislee ($6,200) NE @ NYJ
Pros – Gillislee is tied for second in the league in red zone carries. This game won’t be close meaning the Pats can afford to run the ball as much as they damn well please and Gillislee will be first in line for this large workload. Gillislee had a TD in both games he played against the Jets last year and he will definitely have the opportunity to score again this week. People think the Pats backfield is unpredictable, but it isn’t. The fact that Gillislee has received 18 red zone touches means that he is the most reliable touchdown option in this backfield. That is why I like Gillislee to be a great low-owned value this week.
Cons – It’s possible that James White or Dion Lewis could steal a TD from Gill this week and it’s hard to know what Belichick is thinking. That’s why I am slightly afraid of him this week.
Jordan Howard ($6,900) Chi @ Bal
Pros – Baltimore is allowing 123 yards/game on the ground and Howard is the Bears best bet to put points on the board. Trubisky is still getting used to running an NFL offense and he won’t have an easy time against a solid Ravens pass defense. Howard has 82 carries (8th in league) and 4 rushing TDs (3rd in league) and that is including the week where he only carried the ball 9 times because of injury. He’s the obvious workhorse on the Bears and he will need to put up big numbers for the Bears to have a shot this week.
Cons – If the Bears fall to an early deficit, this could be a sad week for Howard. Chicago will need to pass the ball to try to stay in the game leaving Howard to cry about how he’s not getting enough touches.
Samaje Perine ($4,900) Was vs SF
Pros – VOLUME and PRICE! Perine should eclipse 20 carries and get a bulk of the early down work with Rob Kelly out. He hasn’t done much with his carries, but he will get enough opportunities to have a shot at being fantasy relevant this week.
Cons – He’s been bad, like Blake Bortles bad. Even with a large workload, he still is a risk to get shut down, but I think it’s worth the risk given his cheap price.
Needed to mention this. I don’t know how chalky Le’Veon Bell will be, but I excluded him from my pivots due to uncertainty. I really really like Bell this week. Kansas City is allowing 4.6 YPC and Bell has had a pattern of receiving over 20 carries every other week. I think he is in for a big game and he may go overlooked. I wasn’t sure where to put this info, but I needed to mention his name somewhere.
That’s it for my week 6 Running Back breakdown. Be sure to check out my QB, WR and TE “chalkboard” articles as well. Follow me on twitter @joejberg where I am open to answering any fantasy related questions you may have. Thanks for reading and let’s go out and make some money!