Hey LineupLogic listeners! I would like to welcome you to “The Chalkboard”. In these articles, I will give my take on some possible under-owned pivots to chalky players and why they could be a better option. Choosing some of these lower owned players in GPPs will give you an edge on the competition and possibly help you take home some serious cash.
The Chalkboard – Wide Receiver
DeAndre Hopkins ($8,000) Hou vs Cle
Pros – It’s DeAndre Hopkins. He is the second most targeted wideout in the NFL and has the second most receptions. Cleveland has allowed the highest passer rating and most receiving yards in the NFL this year and this is a perfect matchup on paper for Hop. You just can’t completely fade him because you will probably regret it.
Cons – Speaking of regret. Do you know what I would regret? Playing Hopkins in all of my GPP lines owned at 500% when Deshaun Watson finally comes down to earth. I don’t know if that will be this week, but I promise that it will happen sooner or later. I’m limiting my exposure to Hopkins at around 5%. It’s not that I don’t trust Hopkins, it’s that I don’t trust Watson.
Brandin Cooks ($7,900) NE @ NYJ
Pros – To be honest, I’m going with Cooks mainly for ownership leverage. I know everybody will take Hogan over Cooks this week and I’m banking on Hogan going without a TD against the Jets. Cooks is also the only Pats receiver I see with reasonable 2 TD upside and it’s worth it to pay up a measly $400 for that kind of upside. A Patriot receiver is never a sure thing, but in a GPP I am going with the player with the highest ceiling. I think Cooks could just be that sneaky play to take down a GPP this week.
Cons – As mentioned, a Pats receiver is never a sure thing. Cooks could get 2 catches for 20 yards and that would break your lineup.
Michael Thomas ($8,500) NO vs Det
Pros – High implied team total in a possible shootout. Detroit has struggled against the pass and Brees/Thomas is one of the better connections in the NFL.
Cons – Detroit is only allowing 1.4 passing TDs per game which is actually slightly above league average. If Brees only throws 2 TDs and Thomas doesn’t catch one of them, he is a huge letdown at this price.
Julio Jones ($8,400) Atl vs Mia
Pros – Mohammed Sanu has been ruled out making Jones the only logical option in the passing game. Taylor Gabriel is neat and all, but isn’t nearly as reliable as Sanu. Jones should receive massive target volume and he should go slightly under-owned due to Miami’s “4th ranked pass defense”. Miami gave up 8 receptions on 11 targets for 89 yards and a TD to Michael Thomas two weeks ago. This bodes well for Jones who could receive upwards of 15 targets with Sanu sitting out.
Cons – Julio hasn’t caught a TD pass this year which is slightly worrisome, but I expect regression. I don’t see many reasons not to play Julio this week.
Larry Fitzgerald ($6,600) Ari vs TB
Pros – Tampa has been bad against the pass so far this season. Fitz will always receive plenty of targets and Palmer will be looking his way in a game that should be close. He’s Carson Palmer’s Zach Ertz.
Cons – The J’s. Which J will it be? JJ, Jaron, John or maybe even Jermaine (Gresham). Palmer likes to throw to Fitz, but due to his other options, who could each put up a touchdown which is annoying, there is no “safe bet” with the Cardinals receiving core.
1.) Jarvis Landry ($6,500) Mia @ Atl
Pros – DeVante Parker is doubtful and that should mean a large target boost for Landry. The Dolphins will be trailing in this game and will be in need of lots of big plays. Who will they look to other than Landry who is 10th in the league in targets (43) and 5th in receptions (30). Keep in mind that this is only through 4 games. I could easily see Landry with 10 catches for 100 yards and a TD this week versus an average Falcons pass D.
Cons – One word, Cutler. Jay Cutler can make or break a receiver, although the result is usually the latter. Cutler has been inconsistent to say the least and that affects Landry more than anybody. Cutler may need to throw 40+ passes to try to keep up with the Falcons and around 30-40% of those targets should go to Landry.
2.) Adam Thielen ($6,500) Min vs GB
Pros – Stefon Diggs has been ruled out for Sunday’s matchup against the Packers. Thielen has already been averaging 8 targets per game so far this season. How many do you think he’ll get without Diggs in the equation? Fade him at your own risk.
Cons – Double edged sword. Without Diggs, who is the biggest receiving threat on the Vikes, Adam Thielen. This may cause the Packers to focus on shutting down Minnesota’s best offensive weapon (without Cook and Diggs) leading to a sub-par game.
3.) Amari Cooper ($6,400) Oak vs LAC
Pros – Derek Carr is back baby! Cooper has played terribly since Carr went down which made his price drop drastically. He’s priced super low now that Carr is back under center. I expect Casey Hayward to shadow Crabtree as he has been the Raiders’ biggest receiving threat this year. Without Hayward shadowing Cooper, he could have an amazing game this week.
Cons – While I expect Cooper to regress to his normal self, it’s worth being somewhat cautious because of his recent slump and his issues with drops. I’m not completely sold on Cooper, but I think he’s a great value at this low low price.
Martavis Bryant ($5,500) Pit @ KC
Pros – Kansas City has struggled mightily against the WR this season. Everybody will be on Antonio Brown, but Bryant could have a great game as well. He is receiving 6 targets per game and hasn’t lived up to the hype. He has big game potential and KC is allowing 250 passing yards per game and has given up 9 TDs to receivers through 5 weeks. They are also allowing a league-high 14.5 yards per reception. He will be low-owned and has a high ceiling.
Cons – There comes an inherent risk in playing Bryant each week. He always has big play potential, but Pittsburg spreads the ball around a lot and you never know who Ben will throw to other than Antonio Brown.
Ricardo Louis ($4,500) Cle @ Hou
Pros – Over the past two weeks with Hogan at QB, he has had 9 targets with 7 receptions for 99 yards. Not too shabby considering Hogan only played 3 quarters. If you assume he receives the same volume for a full game, although unlikely, he would have 9 receptions on 12 targets for 132 yards. Thats 17.7 FDP from a $4,500 wide receiver! Even if he puts up 2/3 of that stat line, he will post a 2.6x value which is worth the risk in my opinion.
Cons – He’s a Cleveland wideout with an unproven QB, what am I thinking? I know JJ Watt and Whitney Mercilus are out, but the Houston defense is still good. He’s definitely a risk, but if you need to go with a minimum price WR I think you should go with Louis.
That’s it for my week 6 breakdown. Be sure to check out my QB, RB and TE “chalkboard” articles as well. Follow me on twitter @joejberg where I am open to answering any fantasy related questions you may have. Thanks for reading and let’s go out and make some money!