NFL DFS

The Chalkboard GPP strategy Week 7 – Quarterback

Hey LineupLogic listeners! I would like to welcome you to “The Chalkboard”. In these articles, I will give my take on some possible under-owned pivots to chalky players and why they could be a better option. Choosing some of these lower owned players in GPPs will give you an edge on the competition and possibly help you take home some serious cash.

I realize this article is very long and I apologize. If you do not have the time to fully read this, I will be posting my top 6 favorite QBs for week 7 at the bottom of this article.

 

The Chalkboard – Quarterback

 

Chalk

 

Tom Brady ($9,200) vs Falcons

Pros – The Pats have the highest Implied team total on the slate. Their rushing attack is all over the place so the Patriots will rely on their most talented player to put up points in a shootout.
Cons – Because this game has the highest total it is going to draw in a ton of ownership. That paired with a matchup against an above average defense will make my exposure to Brady pretty limited in my tournament lineups.
Projection – 23 FDP (2.5x value) – I’m thinking Brady has a 2-3 touchdown performance with 4 touchdown upside. The Patriots backfield makes Brady hard to project on a weekly basis because you never know who is going to score or get touches. I feel safe with Brady this week, but I feel that there are a couple of better point per dollar values while giving your lineup some ownership leverage.

Matt Ryan ($8,700) @ New England

Pros – The Falcons have the second highest implied team total in what should be a shootout. Ryan is in a great spot on paper and could be due for some regression.
Cons – As I mentioned with Brady, this game is going to be massively owned. I really like Ryan this week against a terrible Patriots defense, but he has yet to have a game over 18 Fanduel points which is where my worry lies.
Projection – 21 FDP (2.4x value) I like Ryan this week despite his lackluster performances this year. I think he is in a decent spot to finally score over 20 fantasy points.

Dak Prescott ($8,400) @ San Francisco

Pros – The Cowboys have the third highest implied team total on the slate and the 49ers are terrible against the pass. Cousins went for 28.8 points against the Niners last week and Dak has even higher upside than Cousins. The Niners could try to focus on stopping Zeke which will let Prescott pick them apart as he has been doing all season. Prescott is on a roll and has scored over 22 FDP in his last 3 games. I think he has another solid performance this week.
Cons – I could be wrong about the Niners game plan. Instead of focusing on Zeke, they may put all their effort into stopping Prescott. While this doesn’t mean that he can’t have a good game, his floor and ceiling could take a hit. Another thing to keep in mind is that rushing TDs have attributed to 10% of Dak’s fantasy points. He won’t be running one in every single week and that is something we need to keep in mind when determining his floor.
Projection – 20 FDP (2.4x value) – I’m projecting Dak for 250 yards, 2 TDs and 20 yards rushing. I think he has 4 TD upside, but I think Zeke has a good chance of scoring at least once which takes from Prescott’s fantasy value.

Other players that may be chalky: Marcus Mariota ($8,200) and Tyrod Taylor ($7,000)

 

Pivots

 

Drew Brees ($8,300) @ Green Bay

Pros – Brees has 4 touchdown upside against any team on any given week. Last week he had a disappointing performance in a game which the Saints scored 52 points. I think that will scare some people off of Brees making him a great tournament option this week. I don’t see the defense and Mark Ingram stealing the show as much as they did last week and I am fairly confident Brees will return to his usual self.
Cons – My main concern is that Ingram will vulture one or two touchdowns again this week which would drastically affect Brees’ fantasy outing. I don’t necessarily see that happening, but it can’t be ruled out.
Projection – 25.5 FDP (3.1x value) – I’m going to go out on a limb and say Brees finishes as a top 2 QB this week. If Dak Prescott can go for 30 points against the Packers, why is it unrealistic to believe that Brees could get 25-26?

Cam Newton ($8,100) @ Chicago

Pros – This may seem like a bad matchup on paper but it may be better than it looks. We know that Chicago is a solid defensive unit, but take a look who they have played against – Matt Ryan, Jameis Winston, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers, Case Keenum and Joe Flacco. Think about those guys for a second. What do most of them have in common? Big name QBs who have been underperforming this year, aside from IR Rodgers. Matt Ryan had his best fantasy performance of the year against them. Winston was playing in his first game of the year (Week 1 game postponed due to Irma) and had to shake off some rust. Big Ben has been awful this year. Rodgers threw for 4 touchdowns against them. Keenum is a 3rd string QB who lucked his way into a starting job and Joe Flacco is worse than Scott Tolzien. Newton’s biggest issue is interceptions. He has 8 on the year which is 2nd most in the NFL. Well, good news for Newton! Chicago has only 2 interceptions on the year and both came last week against the Ravens and Flacco. That bodes well for Newton in a game that is predicted to be fairly close.
Cons – I may be contradicting myself, but we need to look at both sides and decide if it is worth the risk to take Newton this week. The Bears may only have 2 interceptions on the year, but that number could increase if Newton is off on Sunday. Newton seems to have weeks where he looks like the best QB in the NFL and the next week he can be playing against a worse defense and look like Joe Flacco. This is the inherent risk when selecting Newton and you need to decide for yourself if you think his upside is worth it.
Projection – 21 FDP (2.6x value) – I see Newton with another solid game this week. He may not have the same upside as he would against a team like the Patriots, but he still has one of highest ceilings of any QB on a week to week basis. I think I can count on him for 275 yards, 2 TDs and possibly a rushing touchdown. The ceiling far outweighs the risk in my opinion.

C.J. Beathard ($6,300) vs Dallas

Pros – Boatyard gave the Niners offense new hope after replacing Brian Hoyer in last week’s game against Washington. The 49ers scored more in that half than they had in 4 of their 5 previous games combined. I like the energy that he brings to this offense and I love his cheap price tag. He is my favorite QB if you’re looking to spend up at other positions this week.
Cons – As with any rookie quarterback, the biggest concern is whether or not last week was a fluke. Can he continue where he left off or will he let the pressure of being the starter break him? There are too many unanswered questions and it’s hard to accurately predict what he will do with this opportunity. You need to limit your ownership and be okay with the possibility of a 10-12 point performance.
Projection – 12-18 FDP (1.9-2.85x value) – I think Beathard has a decent game in his first start. I think he will throw for 250-300 yards and 1-2 TDs, but also throw 2 interceptions. There is obviously risk involved in playing a rookie in their first start, but he has an opportunity to get you decent points for nearly minimum cost. If you need to punt QB, I suggest you go with Beathard.

Punt options (VERY RISKY): Brett Hundley ($6,500) and DeShone Kizer ($6,400)

 

My top 6 QBs (based on point per dollar and ownership leverage)

1.) Drew Brees ($8,300)

2.) Cam Newton ($8,100)

3.) Tom Brady ($9,200)

4.) Matt Ryan ($8,700)

5.) Marcus Mariota ($8,200) – I did not include a section for Mariota due to uncertainty about his ownership.

6.) Dak Prescott ($8,400)

That’s it for my week 7 Quarterback breakdown. Be sure to check out my RB, WR and TE “chalkboard” articles as well. Follow me on twitter @joejberg where I am open to answering any fantasy related questions you may have. Thanks for reading and let’s go out and make some money!

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