NFL DFS

The Chalkboard Week 7 – Wide Receiver

Hey LineupLogic listeners! I would like to welcome you to “The Chalkboard”. In these articles, I will give my take on some possible under-owned pivots to chalky players and why they could be a better option. Choosing some of these lower owned players in GPPs will give you an edge on the competition and possibly help you take home some serious cash.

The Chalkboard – Wide Receiver

 

Chalk

Antonio Brown ($9,300) vs Cincinnati

Pros – Adam Jones is doubtful which makes this matchup very appealing for Brown. None of these other corners are going to be able to cover the best wide receiver in the NFL and he should have plenty of opportunities to score this week.
Cons – Ben Roethlisberger has been inconsistent to put it nicely. He needs to start playing much better in order for me to put Brown down as a lock each week.
Projection: 19 FDP (2.0x value) – Obviously Brown is a guy you can’t completely fade and is an elite play in any matchup (do I need to remind you of his game against Jalen Ramsey?). That said, the Steelers haven’t been as efficient as they have been in years past. Sure the last couple of weeks have been spectacular for Brown and Bell, but play has been subpar from the rest of their offense. They need to start moving the ball down the field on each and every drive without relying on only two players. I’m sure he’ll have a good game, but I don’t feel confident placing him in my top 3 WRs this week due to the sporadic play of Big Ben.


Julio Jones ($8,800) @ New England

Pros – New England’s defense is bad. The best comparison I have is they are the defensive equivalent of Joe Flacco. Like, they are really really bad! They have given up solid games to guys like Jermaine Kearse, Robby Anderson and Brandon Coleman. Julio has more skill than those three combined and Vegas thinks this game will be close and a shootout? Sign me up! I hate locking in players in 100% of my lines, but it’s going to be hard to not have Julio everywhere this week.
Cons – Julio has yet to score a touchdown. That is slightly worrisome as this is the first time that Julio hasn’t scored in his first 5 games since his rookie season. But hey, he had 2 TDs in the 6th game of that year. Repeat performance anybody?
Projection: 21.5 FDP (2.4x value) – I think you need to lock and load Julio this week. If he doesn’t score then we can revisit this issue next week and decide that we need some time apart, but I really don’t see that happening.


Dez Bryant ($8,200) @ San Francisco

Pros – San Francisco is pretty bad at football. The 0-6 team has allowed 262 yards/game passing which is good for 7th worst in the league. Prescott is an animal and is bound to look towards his best receiver in a plus situation. Bryant is 8th in the league in red zone targets with 9 and has caught 3 of those, all of them for touchdowns. Expect Bryant to get looks early and often in a game where pass attempts and yards should be plentiful.
Cons – The biggest risk is that the Cowboys take a big lead early and rely on the run game to eat up the clock. That isn’t an unlikely scenario and if that happens, the ceiling for Dez would drop.
Projection: 17 FDP (2.1x value) – I think Dez has a 3 touchdown ceiling if this game stays close. However, I don’t necessarily see that happening and while I like this matchup quite a bit, I will limit my exposure in case of a blowout.

Pivots

Demaryius Thomas ($7,100) @ LA Chargers

Pros – Emmanuel Sanders is out leaving Thomas to receive a humongous number of targets.
Cons – He will be covered by Casey Hayward who has been solid all year and the Chargers may double up on him and try to take away the passing game completely.
Projection: 15 FDP (2.1x value) – Not my favorite option, but the heavy volume he should receive gives Thomas a massive ceiling.


Devin Funchess ($6,700) @ Chicago

Pros – Funchess should go fairly low owned and that’s just one reason why I love him here. I mentioned that I like Cam Newton in my quarterback article and Funchess will be who I pair him with. Funchess has only had 4 targets in the red zone. However, he has hauled in 3 of those, all of them for touchdowns. Remind you of somebody? Cough, cough, DEZ BRYANT, cough cough. To add to that, he has an amazing matchup against Kyle Fuller this week. Fuller has a severe height/weight disadvantage and that is what Newton will look to exploit. Funchess has 5 inches and 30 pounds on him which is just begging for multiple targets in the end zone. We know that Funchess has a great red zone success rate and don’t see that changing this week. I think he’s a lock for a touchdown against the Bears this week.
Cons – I guess the Bears defense is good in some aspects so if they bring their A-game, Funchess could be in for a long day.
Projection: 16.5 FDP (2.5x value) – Funchess is nearly in the same boat as Julio in my eyes. This WR/CB matchup is just too juicy. I obviously will keep him out of a couple of lineups in case he flops, but I’m liking him quite a bit heading up to this game.


Eric Decker ($5,100) @ Cleveland

Pros – Facing a bad Cleveland pass defense, Decker seems to be in an incredible spot. He should be covered by Jamar Taylor who is allowing the 3rd most fantasy points per route of all corners on the slate. The corner allowing the most points per route is Terrance Mitchell who covered Amari Cooper on Thursday night. 200 yards say what?
Cons – Whenever you take Decker you run the risk of getting 3 or 4 points out of him. He will get 9 targets one week and 2 the next which is very frustrating and hard to predict.
Projection: 15.5 FDP (3.0x value) – I think Decker is one of the best point per dollar wideouts this week. There is lots of risk in taking him so make sure you are okay with possibly getting 3 catches for 25 yards out of him. To me, the reward is greater than the risk. I’m hot on Decker this week.

 

That’s it for my week 7 Wide receiver breakdown. Be sure to check out my QB, RB and TE “chalkboard” articles as well. Follow me on twitter @joejberg where I am open to answering any fantasy related questions you may have. Thanks for reading and let’s go out and make some money!

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