NFL DFS

The Chalkboard Week 8 – Quarterback

Hey LineupLogic listeners! I would like to welcome you to The Chalkboard. In these articles, I will try to determine which players you should use in Fanduel tournaments. I will do this by analyzing match-ups of chalky, mid-owned and low-owned players. I will also be mentioning which players you should consider fading and why. Fading a chalky player and instead selecting a lower owned player who performs well will give you an automatic edge against other competitors in that tournament. Hopefully, some of my information can help you take down a tournament and walk away with some serious cash.

Guide to each sub-category
Implied Game Total/Implied Team Total: Current implied game and team totals according to FantasyLabs.com
Fun Fact: Interesting fact(s) about player, defense or match-up history.
Def Rank vs Position: Defensive rank for Yards per game, touchdowns, QB rating and completion percentage allowed to Quarterbacks.
Grade: Grade will be on a scale from 0-30. Grade is based on point per dollar value. For example, 13/30 would be 1.3x value, 20/30 would be 2x value, 27/30 would be 2.7x value and so on.

I know that I keep switching formats of my articles, but I think I finally found a style that I like. This will be the format of my articles for the rest of the season. That said, let’s get into the breakdown!

 

The Chalkboard – Quarterback

 

CHALK (owned at 12.5% or higher)

 Carson Wentz ($7,900) vs San Francisco

Implied Game Total/Implied Team Total – Total – 47/Eagles – 30

Fun Fact – Wentz has thrown for 11 touchdowns over his last 3 starts and San Francisco has allowed an average of 23.9 Fanduel points to QBs over the last 5 weeks.

Def Rank vs Position – Yards per game: 259 (25th)  Touchdowns: 12 (tied for 24th)  QB rating: 98.5 (26th)  Completion percentage: 64.7 (23rd).

Grade – 29/30 (2.9x value/23 FDP) – Wentz is the best play on the slate on paper. This will lead to massive ownership, but I am still okay with locking him in this weekend.


Medium Ownership (Owned between 7.5% and 12.5%)


Matt Ryan ($8,100) @ New York Jets

Implied Game Total/Implied Team Total – Total – 47/Falcons – 25

Fun Fact – The Jets have allowed 8 passing touchdowns over the past 3 weeks.

Def Rank vs Position – Yards per game: 231 (20th)  Touchdowns: 15 (Tied for last)  QB rating: 85.7 (14th)  Completion percentage: 60.3 (9th)

Grade – 27/30 (2.7x value/22 FDP) – Ryan hasn’t thrown for more than 2 touchdowns in a game this season. The Jets may not be the worst passing defense on the slate, but they are allowing a ridiculous number of touchdown passes and I think Ryan will get back on track this week.


Cam Newton ($7,800) vs Tampa Bay

Implied Game Total/Implied Team Total – Total – 44.5/Panthers – 21.25

Fun Fact – Over their past 5 games, the Bucs have allowed an average of 22.4 points to quarterbacks. The only game under 20 points in that span was 13.62 in an usually low scoring Thursday night game to Tom Brady and the Patriots.

Def Rank vs Position – Yards per game: 295 (30th)  Touchdowns: 11 (tied for 21st)  QB rating: 102.9 (29th)  Completion percentage: 69.4 (30th)

Grade – 29/30 (2.9x value/23 FDP) – I love Newton this week. This value is very very realistic. He only needs 300 yards passing, 2 TDs and 30 yards rushing. The Bucs allow 295 yards passing and 1.8 passing touchdowns per game and Newton averages 30 yards rushing per game. Add his potential for a rushing TD and he should be a sneaky good value this week.

Pivots/Sleepers (Owned below 7.5%)


Andy Dalton ($7,600) vs Indianapolis

Implied Game Total/Implied Team Total – Total – 41.5/Bengals – 26

Fun Fact – The Colts have allowed an average of 21.7 fantasy points to the quarterback over the past 5 weeks. Including performances of 22.1 and 25 points to Brian Hoyer and DeShone Kizer.

Def Rank vs Position – Yards per game: 301 (31st)  Touchdowns: 10 (tied for 16th)  QB rating: 93.5 (23rd)  Completion percentage: 63.1 (17th)

Grade – 27/30 (2.7x value/21 FDP) – Dalton has big potential this week against the Colts who allow the 2nd most passing yards per game. Dalton has had a difficult schedule this year and should have a great bounce back week after averaging 13.75 points over his past two starts.

Philip Rivers ($7,500) @ New England

Implied Game Total/Implied Team Total – Total – 48/Chargers – 20.25

Fun Fact – The Patriots have allowed  2 or more touchdowns in 5 of their 7 games and Rivers has thrown for 2 or more touchdowns in 4 of 7 games.
Def Rank vs Position – Yards per game: 310 (Last)  Touchdowns: 15 (tied for last)  QB rating: 103.8 (30th)  Completion percentage: 66.8 (27th)

Grade – 28/30 (3x value/21 FDP) – New England has allowed the most passing yards per game and are tied for most touchdowns allowed on the season. He is in a prime spot to hit 3x value and has 4 td upside against an awful pass defense. I think he will go lower owned because there are a lot of good options on this slate and the Chargers implied team total is low.

Consider Fading

Deshaun Watson ($8,000) @ Seattle

Implied Game Total/Implied Team Total – Total – 46/Texans 20.25

Fun Fact – The Seahawks have only allowed 3 or more passing touchdowns twice times in their last 20 games (week 7 of last year).

Def Rank vs Position – Yards per game: 191 (6th)  Touchdowns: 5 (tied for 2nd)  QB rating: 69.9 (2nd)  Completion percentage: 55.6 (3rd)

Why consider fading? – Watson has been incredible in his rookie season, but he has yet to face a defensive juggernaut like the Seahawks and I think he struggles a lot in this game. I’d rather pay $100 less for a QB like Carson Wentz.

Grade – 20/30 (2x value/16 FDP)

Tom Brady ($9,400) vs LA Chargers

Implied Game Total/Implied Team Total – Total – 48/Patriots – 27.75

Fun Fact – The Chargers defense has a 3:4 Touchdown/Interception ratio over the past 3 weeks.

Def Rank vs Position – Yards per game: 185 (5th)  Touchdowns: 9 (tied for 8th)  QB rating: 89.1 (17th)  Completion percentage: 65.6 (25th)

Why consider fading? – Brady would need to throw for 300 yards and 4 touchdowns to hit 3x value. That is 115 more yards and 2.7 more touchdowns than the Chargers are allowing per game. I don’t think that is impossible, but I think it is very unlikely. I would rather go with one of the many other options on this slate.

Grade – 21/30 (2.1x value/20 FDP)

 

That’s it for my week 8 Quarterback breakdown. Be sure to check out my RB, WR and TE articles as well. Follow me on twitter @joejberg where I am open to answering any fantasy related questions you may have. Thanks for reading and let’s go out and make some money!

 

RB article – The Chalkboard Week 8 – Running Back

WR article –The Chalkboard Week 8 – Wide Receiver

 

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