DFS Cheat Sheets

PGA Tour DFS Breakdown, Analysis, Picks: Shriners Hospitals for Children Open

Preview: We’re back in the USA! That means we get about 12 extra hours to set our lineups and we can get back into the usual Thursday morning to Sunday evening weekly timeline. Admittedly, the field isn’t all that exciting, but hey, that’s the point of DFS right? It makes weeks like this one a bit more interesting. Last week we saw an unexpected 10-stroke swing comeback by Justin Rose to beat Dustin Johnson who led by 6 going into the final round. This week, Tony Finau tops the slate in terms of salary. Hey, gotta work with what ya got! The field is back to a fully stacked 142 players making things very interesting, while providing a ton of value down low for those who are able to sift through all the information available to us. The top 70 guys and ties will make the cut, and as always, our goal will be to get that whole lineup on to the weekend. Let’s break it down.

The Course: TPC Summerlin – 7,255 yards, Par 72 (according to the scorecard on the course’s webite, though I’ve seen it reported to be a par 71 elsewhere). From PGATour.com: “Carved from rugged desert on the western outskirts of Las Vegas, TPC Summerlin opened in 1991 as a collaboration of Bobby Weed and two-time major champion Fuzzy Zoeller. The course winds through arroyos and canyons, leading to a four-hole closing stretch bursting with risk/reward – the drivable par-4 15th, the par-5 16th, the water-lined par-3 17th and a strong par-4 No.18. Originally part of a three-course rotation for the PGA TOUR’s annual Vegas stop, TPC Summerlin became the sole venue in 2008 as part of tournament restructuring.” As stated, this course has hosted the tournament since 2008, giving us stats on top of stats; always a good thing. The course is hilly, appears to have some pretty serious elevation changes throughout, and isn’t necessarily one of the easier one’s you’ll see this season. The past three years, winners have had total scores ranging from -16 to -20. Last year, Rod Pampling took 1st place with a final round 60 and in 2016, Smylie Kaufman fired a 4th round 61 to go on to win. So, low scores are very possible and the ability to convert on birdies and eagles will be important. Another important aspect here is that the field is stacked with some names that aren’t so familiar. Some PGA Tour veterans, and some rookies and incoming Web.com Tour players, so not everyone has a ton of previous and or recent form stats readily available.

Important Stats: Looking into all the available information and past performance of successful players at this tournament, I compiled a list of 10 categories for each player’s previous 24 rounds. The stat lines I took into consideration are as follows: SG tee to green, SG off the tee, SG approach, GIR gained, SG putting, birdies gained, bogeys avoided, proximity 125-150 yards, par 4’s 400-450 yards, and SG par 4. An emphasis was put on SG approach, GIR gained, birdies gained, proximity, and par 4 stats. Also taken into consideration was the past 3 years of results at the Shriners Open.

Here’s a little compilation of players in the field with notable finishes in the past three years (with DK pricing):shriners historyStuds:

Webb Simpson: simpson-webb-swings-042813-640x360My favorite stud this week. He has decent tournament history (4th in 2015, made the cut but didn’t finish great last year), and has been playing great golf the past few months. Notable 24-round stats: 23rd SG tee to green, 19th SG approach, 12th GIR gained and SG putting, 15th birdies gained, 2nd bogeys avoided, 4th SG par 4.

Tony Finau: He’s been playing great golf and deserves the top salary, but you’re paying a lot for Tony Finau here. His finishes since the beginning of September have been no worse than 26th, and that’s against some of the best competition in the world. He also has solid tournament history. Notable 24-round stats include 15th SG tee to green, 4th SG off the tee, 7th birdies gained, 18th SG par 4.

Anirban Lahiri: He’s been top-10 in his past three starts, but, that is a high price tag for Lahiri. 24-round stats don’t support paying up for him, but it’s hard to argue with his recent performance. My personal opinion is that you can find better value elsewhere.

Patrick Cantlay: He doesn’t have the tournament history aspect, but I have been riding high on Cantlay since before last season’s playoffs. 24-round stats include 5th SG tee to green, 11th SG off the tee, 17th SG approach, 3rd bogeys avoided, 7th SG par 4. I think this is a reasonable salary for him here and I have no problem at all with rostering him here.

Chesson Hadley: What. A. Start. To. The. Season. That’s really all I have to say. 3rd at the Safeway and 2nd last week at Sanderson Farms. 24-round stats include 7th in SG tee to green, 23rd SG off the tee, 18th SG  approach, and 18th in bogeys avoided. Again, he doesn’t have the tournament history but it’s hard to argue with his recent form. Not a bad bet to perform well this week.

Other studs ($9,000+ DK) that I like: Kevin Na (always a bit risky), Byeong-Hun An, Charley Hoffman, Kevin Chappell

Fades in my book: Lahiri, Moore, (Woodland is hanging out somewhere in between for me)

Mid Range:

Luke List: 0919_web_d_luke_list_t800_hb9533c4eaf923542c604cf3a749628179bbcbee3He has had a very solid start to the season, impressing in the CIMB and CJ Cup Asia run. He’s finished 37th, 13th, and 5th in his three starts this season and actually had a good playoff run to end last season. He also came in 15th here last year. 24-round stats include 4th SG tee to green, 1st SG off the tee, 11th SG approach, 3rd birdies gained, and 19th in proximity 125-150 yards. An absolute bargain at his salary, especially compared to the remainder of this field.

Kevin Streelman: Impressive tournament history, OK recent form, and just an overall solid golfer. He had a great season last year and appears all over the 24-round stats, although nothing really sets him that far apart. He is a middle of the road option that I am confident will make it into the weekend, and has the ability to do a little more than just that.

Ryan Armour: He is coming off a win at the Sanderson Farms Championship and had some good outings at the end of last season. He is on my list at 17th SG tee to green, 24th in GIR gained and SG putting, 4th in birdies gained, 19th in par 4’s 400-450, and 10th in SG par 4. Real solid option for $8,100.

Ben Martin: He won here in 2015 and came in 25th in 2016. He didn’t finish great last week but has some impressive 24-round stats when compared to the field. 10th in SG approach, 12th in birdies gained, 25th in bogeys avoided, and 15th in strokes gained par 4. The course history sets him apart.

Other mid-range that I like: Jason Kokrak, Jamie Lovemark, Smylie Kaufman, William McGirt

Value: There is so much value in this field, so for now I will just name off some of the notable players that I think can make a run this week. I will hopefully get back and update this between now and when lineups lock when I get to do some more digging.

For now, I have an eye on:

($7,000+): V. Taylor, R. Streb, M. Flores, P. Kizzire, J. Hahn, H. Mahan, T. Aswegen, R. Garrigus

(>$7,000): A. Cejka, B. Hagy, C. Tringale, R. Pampling, R. Sabbatini, C. Villegas, S. Strohmeyer

Thanks for reading & good luck this week! Follow us on Twitter at: 

@donaldremington // @LineupLogicDFS

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