Tom Brady (5%) – Brady will go under-owned due to the belief that the Broncos are good against the pass. Here’s the thing though, they aren’t. Would you play Brady against the Browns? Yes, yes, yes and more yes. Well, the Broncos have allowed the same number of passing touchdowns as the Browns and are 20th in QB rating. Use this misconception to your advantage and be sure to play Brady in one of your GPP lines this week.
Drew Brees (5%) – If you don’t like Brady against the Broncos, here’s a pivot for you. The Bills have only given up 7 passing touchdowns all year, but 5 of those have come in the last 3 weeks. The Bills are solid against the run and that will force the Saints to throw a lot. I like Brees quite a bit this week and could see him throwing 2 or 3 touchdowns this week.
Eli Manning (3%) – Eli must be so excited to face a bad defense. He’s played against some really solid defenses over the last 4 weeks, the Rams, Seahawks, Broncos and the Chargers. The Niners have been awful all year on defense and Manning will have the opportunity to go off in this game. Yes, his best receivers are still out, but if Drew Stanton can throw for 2 TDs against them, why can’t Eli?
CJ Beathard (2%) – Speaking of the Niners, I need to mention CJ Beathard. Beathard threw 51 times last week, 51 times! That may seem like an outlier and it is to some extent, but Beathard is averaging 42 attempts per game over the last 3 games. The Giants are allowing 7.6 yards per attempt (24th) and have allowed 18 passing touchdowns (31st) this season. I think Beathard should be good for 275 yards and a touchdown with some rushing yards sprinkled in as well.
Devonta Freeman (7.5%) – This is just too cheap for a running back with the skill that Freeman has. The Cowboys are allowing 4.4 YPC (25th) and I think this is the perfect spot for Freeman to get back on track.
Bilal Powell (5%) – Powell will be starting with Matt Forte ruled out and I love this spot. The Bucs are allowing 4.0 yards per carry which is average, but have allowed 8 rushing touchdowns (tied for 24th). According to Derek Brown (host of FFB 24/7 podcast) or @DBro_FFB on twitter, over the last 2 seasons Powell has had 4 games with 18 touches or more. He finished as a top 10 RB in each game and 3 of those were top 5 finishes. One of the best point per dollar plays this week.
Doug Martin (4%) – The Jets are allowing 4.2 YPC (22nd) and 121 rushing yards per game (24th). I know that Martin hasn’t been performing well this year and there is talk about decreasing his playing time. This pick is all about a narrative for me. I believe that Martin will feel that he is fighting for his job and that will light a fire under him and he will have a spectacular game. He’s faced some pretty stingy run defenses in the past couple of weeks, but I have a good feeling that he will get back on track this week at low cost and ownership.
Duke Johnson Jr. (1%) -The Lions are 23rd in fantasy points allowed to the running back and they struggle against receiving backs. The Browns will be trailing leading them to pass the ball more which will give way to more snaps for Johnson. My only concern is that Isaiah Crowell has been more involved in the passing attack and had a solid game against the Vikings in his last game. Pick and choose between the two, but I like Johnson’s upside more as a GPP punt this week.
Sterling Shepard (5%) – Shepard had 9 targets last week against the Rams and has a much more favorable match-up this week against the Niners. Besides Evan Engram, he’s the only receiver that Eli can trust and that should lead to big numbers tomorrow.
Keenan Allen (4%) – Allen lines up in the slot 50% of the time meaning he won’t be covered by A.J. Bouye or Jalen Ramsey half of the time. If any of the wideouts on the Chargers will have a good game, it will be Allen. He’s not my favorite play, but he could have a good game at low ownership.
Sammy Watkins (4%) – Watkins hasn’t been the receiver that the Rams hoped for when they signed him. This week Watkins will face a Houston team that just got burned by T.Y. Hilton for 32 Fanduel points. I will say the same thing about Watkins as I did about Jordan Matthews. His price tag is too cheap for the amount of upside that he has. Watkins is one of my favorite GPP plays this week.
Jordan Matthews (3%) – I think Matthews finally has the kind of game that Buffalo expected from him when they signed him. Defenses won’t be able to zero in on him now that the Bills acquired Kelvin Benjamin and that could very well lead to more looks for Matthews. Matthews generally plays out of the slot and he will be covered by Kenny Vaccaro who is allowing the most fantasy points per reception and the highest catch rate on the Saints. Hopefully Matthews will turn things around this week and you will want to be on him if he does. $5,600 is too low of a price for a receiver with the upside that Matthews has.
Cole Beasley (1.5%) – With Elliot out for the next 4 games, I expect that the Cowboys will switch to a pass first offense. Beasley is not the most attractive option, but he’s a very reliable red zone target. He’s been targeted 6 times with 4 receptions and 4 touchdowns. That’s right, every time he has caught a ball in the red zone, it has been a touchdown. Last week, Beasley had 2 touchdown catches which were crucial in their win against the Chiefs. I believe the coaches will recognize that and hopefully give him more looks going forward.
Adam Humphries (1%) – With Mike Evans suspended, Fitzpatrick will need to find another receiver to throw to. I think that guy could very well be Adam Humphries. In Fitzpatrick’s last start, Humphries was targeted 7 times and hauled in 6 of those for 51 yards and that was WITH Evans playing. Evans had 8 targets and a TD in that game and those targets will be going somewhere else. I could see Humphries getting 10+ targets this week against a vulnerable Jets defensive unit.
Garrett Celek (5%) – George Kittle is out this week and Celek will be the starter against the Giants who have been atrocious against tight ends this year. The Giants have allowed more than a touchdown per game to the position and why should that stop now. When a team is that bad at a certain spot you need to just keep attacking it and that is what the 49ers will do. Celek had 4 targets last week and should see even more with Kittle out of the lineup. This is a great spot and is a lock if you are trying to fit multiple expensive players in your lineup.
Kyle Rudolph (4%) – The Redskins struggle mightily against the tight end position as they are allowing the 4th most fantasy points to the position. Rudolph has not received under 7 targets in the past four weeks and he’s one of the Vikings top options in the passing game. If you’re looking for a mid-priced pivot, give some thought to rostering Rudolph.
Hunter Henry (2.5%) – People will stay away from most players in this game and that opens up some leverage if you choose to go with Hunter Henry. The Jags have been incredible on defense this year, but have had some issues guarding tight ends. Henry had been averaging 8.8 FDP per game before his last game and he could get back on track in a game that won’t allow Rivers much room to find his outside receivers.
That’s it for my tournament picks for Week 10. Follow me on Twitter @joejberg where I’m available to answer all fantasy related questions.