It’s snowing here in Connecticut, and I spent way too much money on groceries. I’m going to cook food all day and write up this breakdown. There’s a nice little 2-gamer to kick off the day in NBA DFS, and another fun 8-game slate tonight. I’ll share my thoughts on the afternoon slate, and add my main slate plays a bit later on.
Let’s do this using the cheat sheet format, with preferred players (in all formats) in GREEN and preferred tournament options in GOLD. These are the players I’ll have nearly locked in my lineups, with the non-highlighted names being peppered in here and there. I won’t use the colors on today’s afternoon slate, as I won’t be playing cash games. For me, it’s tournaments only on 2-game slates.
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EARLY SLATE THOUGHTS:
On small slates like this, it’s hard to rule out any particular player who will receive decent minutes, as differentiation is critical. I’d like to remind everyone that although I’m discussing my personal favorite plays below, it’s important to trust your process and roster who you believe to be the best players. For example, even though I’m choosing to lock in DeAndre Jordan on this slate, it is possible that picking the correct center (C) from Brooklyn will be the key to winning GPPs.
Brooklyn is ranked, overall, 26th in defensive efficiency and 28th in DvP, so it makes some good sense to load up on the Heat this afternoon. After taking a closer look, my favorite approach to this small slate is rostering both point guards (PGs) from Miami (Brooklyn is particularly weak vs. PGs), but also creating a hedge lineup using the safety of Spencer Dinwiddie over the risk involved with rostering Tyler Johnson. To get to Dinwiddie, I’ll drop from my favorite small forward (SF) of the small slate, Otto Porter, down to Kelly Oubre, and down from Kelly Olynyk to James Johnson.
At SF, I’m only focusing on Wizards and Clippers. I’m fine with any combination of Otto Porter, Kelly Oubre (birthday narrative), and Danilo Gallinari. However, DeMarre Carroll, Allen Crabbe, Wesley Johnson, and Josh Richardson are also viable, especially on a small slate.
As far as power forward (PF) is concerned, the only Brooklyn player I’m rostering is Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. James Johnson is also intriguing against a Brooklyn team that ranks 24th in Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM) to the position. In the last two meetings with Brooklyn, Johnson posted 47.6 and 42.5 FanDuel points. I don’t mind a priced-up Kelly Olynyk. He seems to be drawing the most benefits from the absence of Hassan Whiteside. Olynyk has posted over 30 FanDuel points in his last two games, and it’s possible his price will scare others away.
Finally, at shooting guard (SG), I’ve completely locked in Bradley Beal, as I’m sure most will, and I like complementing him with either Lou Williams or Dion Waiters. A good portion of the masses could potentially gravitate toward Caris LeVert after his ceiling game this past Thursday, so I’m planning to fade him against a Miami team that is stout against the position.
MAIN SLATE PICKS
Eric Bledsoe (Birthday)
Malik Monk (if both Lamb and Batum out)
This post will be updated as news/lineups emerge, and as I continue to research the slate. Come back frequently to check for updates!
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