Best Favorite: Gregor Gillespie (-600). I’m giving Gillespie the nod as the safest bet on the card based on his elite wrestling and an inferior opponent. In the back of my mind with Mirsad Bektic is the fact he’s coming off of being knocked out. I think Bektic’s still a deserving favorite, but he’s facing a guy that can throw.
Best Underdog: Mara Romero Borella (+140). The more I’ve dug into this one, the better I’ve liked Borella. The concern is she can’t handle Katlyn Chookagian’s striking. That concern was alleviated for me when I dug up her fight with Lena Ovchynnikova in Ukraine in 2016. It was a No Contest because the judges were so off base in awarding Ovchynnikova a split decision the athletic commission overturned it. Borella took some punishment but handled the kickboxer well enough. Borella also has a right hand, despite her stiff striking. Her passes are also silky smooth, so if the fight gets to the ground, she’s going to be in a great position.
Toughest Toss-Up: Vinc Pichel (-110) vs Joaquim Silva (-110). Such a hard fight to pick. Silva’s biggest weakness is getting taken down. Pichel has takedowns in past fights but got rag-dolled by a superior wrestler. In addition, Pichel is a patient fighter, and Silva tends to get recklessly aggressive. That has me leaning Pichel until you consider Silva’s the more powerful fighter and could win rounds off of aggressiveness. The final tally for Pichel is the short right hook he caught Damien Brown with in his last fight. I see that Silva getting hurt coming forward by a similar shot.