PGA CheatSheet

PGA DFS Breakdown, Analysis, Picks: 2018 Genesis Open @ Riviera CC – 2/15/18

Welcome back! Ted Potter Jr. took down last week’s AT&T Classic at Pebble Beach and if you had him in your lineups – congratulations. You deserve it. For those of us who overlooked Potter (99.9% of the world, seemingly), I hope you were able to make some money anyways – which was definitely a possibility. We saw some good performances from DJ, Reavie, Day, and Mickelson, just to name a few. For the full breakdown of where we hit and where we didn’t, be sure to tune in to this week’s @LineupLogicDFS podcast which will be up in the next day or so. Let’s get right into this week’s Genesis Open at Riviera CC. And oh yeah – Tiger is back, again.

The course: Riviera Country Club – 7,322 yards, Par 71

Heading to another course very familiar to most PGA Tour pros, we are going to try and find the right combination of who is hot and who performs well here. Riviera is actually somewhat similar to what we’ve been seeing so far on the west coast swing in some ways, but very unique in others. The course is definitely longer than last week’s tracks for starters, and poses a few of it’s own challenges in comparison to some of what we’ve seen lately. For starters, the trees and the bunkers. Everywhere. If you go so far as to even look at an aerial view of the course, the first thing you’ll notice is the trees off the edge of every single fairway and the crazy amount of sand, everywhere. Another very important tidbit – we have more poa greens – so keep an eye out for that. Guys that were draining putts last week will likely keep draining putts again this week (cough cough … not Rory!!). Without going into too much detail, I am going to give you a rundown of some notable performances here over the past three years next to last week’s results:

Genesis History

Taking all of the above into consideration, here are the stats I focused on this week: DK points, SG tee to green, SG putting, SG approach, SG short game, SG scrambling, fairways gained, birdies or better gained, bogeys avoided, and strokes gained par 4 – this time over each player’s last 24 rounds, now that we have a little more recent data to work with. I am going to jump right in here, breaking down the field into a few price ranges, highlighting who I like and who I don’t. Remember, this is a first look, and these opinions are subject to change based on further research, news, and any other circumstances. I would highly recommend tuning into the podcast, checking in at the LineupLogic chat, and reaching out on Twitter (@donaldremington and @Roto_Wan) as Thursday morning approaches. Let’s get into it.

Studs  $10,000+ (DraftKings):

Dustin Johnson ($11,900):Dustin Johnson As always, it’s nearly impossible to ignore DJ here. As you probably noticed above, his finishes the past three year at this event have been 2nd, 4th, 1st. And he finished 2nd last week. The only thing I really feel the need to mention here is that his play last Sunday was sub par – or even-par? One way or another, he didn’t look himself on Sunday. And this price is BIG. I think he is a hugely safe play here, if you can fit him in, although it may not be all that necessary when glancing over the rest of this field.

Jordan Spieth ($11,300): My #1 question here is – what exactly justifies this price tag? Spieth has had some good history here but missed the cut in 2016, followed up with a 22nd last year, and simply hasn’t been turning heads as of late. I think I am past playing Spieth on the poa greens, but that’s not to say he’s not in play this week. He did in fact end up finishing 20th last week, but something is off. I am going to go ahead and take a week off of Speith and look elsewhere. There are plenty of options under this $11k+ range that are very, very in play this week.

Paul Casey ($10,200): Paul Casey is one of my favorite week to week plays, but we are definitely seeing an elevated price tag this week. We saw a great performance from him last week, especially at his price. I am leaning toward playing Casey and fading the guys above him in this price range. Across the board, his stats are very impressive.

Mid-Range ($8,100 – $9,900):

Tommy Fleetwood ($9,500):tommyfleetwoodbmwpgachampionshipdayonejvyx68-m9fvl Although I highly doubt it, I am hoping his lack of course history drags his ownership down. This guy has been on fire as of late, despite his number of appearances on the PGA Tour. He’s got 10/10 cuts on the season, coming off a Race to Dubai victory, and four consecutive top-10’s. If there was one category you could hold against him it would be his short game. Similar to Rory last week, we don’t know how he performs on the poa greens. But, at this price, for the player he is, I will not be fading him, especially in GPP’s.

Branden Grace ($9,000): He was very very quiet last week – to be honestly I almost completely over looked him. He, like Fleetwood, has made 10 cuts in 10 starts on the season. He was very consistent last week, showing us he’s able to putt on these greens, and he ended up finishing 20th. He has course history and he’s a proven scorer. He absolutely cannot be counted out this week.

Tiger Woods ($8,800): Similarly to the last time we saw Tiger – I’m passing but I hope he wins. Enough said.

Matt Kuchar ($8,400): He keeps making cuts and he keeps doing what I expect him to do. With the exception of last weekend. Honestly, I’m not sure what got into Kuchar on the weekend at Pebble Beach, but a 75-73 finish was uncharacteristically disappointing. Without a doubt, at this price, I am already itching to get him back into my lineups.  He’s performed well here in the past and he’s got the game that fits the course. If anything, last weekend will depress his ownership.

Other mid-range I like here: Pat Perez, Marc Leishman, Xander Schauffele

“Value” (<$8,100):

Chez Reavie ($8,000): Chez ReavieIf you didn’t notice, my price ranges are a bit off this week. Why you ask? Because I thought CHEZ REAVIE belonged down here in the value segment. All I have to say is how. in. the. world. is CHEZ priced this low? He has been doing amazing things week after week, and again, for anyone who has been reading anything I have been putting out over the past year or so – you know I have been playing this guy for months and months. Nothing has changed. I am not even thinking about ownership here. Keep playing his and keep reaping the benefits.

Jason Kokrak ($7,500): I am going to keep this short just like I have been for just about everyone so far. Kokrak is a long ball hitter and that will only help him here. He keeps making cuts and he keeps  performing. I still think he’s going low owned, especially when seeing who is priced around him this week. He had one off round last week that took him out of the mix heading into Sunday. This is prime pricing for Kokrak, who has had some pretty good history at this event. If he stays under $8k, I’ll keep playing him.

Adam Scott ($7,400): If you’re looking for a VERY low owned punt here at a crazy value – look no further than Adam Scott. I don’t think he’s going to stay this far off his game for too long. I will be the first to say Adam Scott is due for a come back. We all know what this guy is capable of and this is a price that I am willing to take  a chance on him. He likes the course (finished 2nd and 11th here the past two years) and is coming off of some very ugly finishes. He will be very low owned, and a solid finish from him could be just what you need to differentiate yourself in a GPP.

Other $7,000 – $8,000 worth considering: (BY THE WAY – this price range is stacked) – Brendan Steele, Rafael Cabrera-Bello, Thomas Pieters, Patrick Cantlay, Keegan Bradley, Wesley Bryan, Charles Howell, Brian Gay, Hao-Tong-Li — Like I said, stacked.

Super Value Darts (<$7,000): Martin Laird, Ryan Moore, Cameron Tringale, Chris Stroud, Brandon Harkins, Kevin Tway, Bud Cauley, Jamie Lovemark

Thanks again for reading – be sure to catch the podcast that will be dropping soon and following @donaldremington @Roto_Wan @LineupLogicDFS on twitter.

Good luck this week & please reach out with any questions or comments!

 

 

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