NBA DFS

Monday NBA DFS: Injuries and Implications (3/12)

rudy

With LaMarcus Aldridge out of the lineup, Rudy Gay should be in for a heavy workload. (photo via SB Nation)

Monday’s NBA main slate on FanDuel and DraftKings features four games. In this preview for tonight’s NBA DFS slate, we will cover notable statistics regarding players, teams, rotations, etc. and how these will effect the strategy that goes into building a NBA DFS team.

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San Antonio @ Houston (HOU -9.5, 200.0 total)

San Antonio:

The Spurs are playing in the first half of a back-to-back set tonight, but LaMarcus Aldridge and Manu Ginobli have both been ruled out of this game. With Aldridge sitting out and Kawhi Leonard expected to be out until Thursday, the Spurs’ secondary players will have a ton of fantasy relevance. Looking at the Spurs’ CourtIQ, one thing stands out, Rudy Gay gets the biggest boost in usage and production – sporting a 31.5% usage rate and 1.33 FD points per minute, which represents a 7% boost in usage and a 0.31 boost in FD points per minute. This difference in production is also highlighted in the chart below, along with Joffrey Lauvergne’s uptick in scoring:

LMA

Houston:

The Rockets are playing in the second half of a back-to-back set tonight, but there hasn’t been too much concern for rest with them in these sets this season. James Harden sat out on Sunday with a “knee injury,” but he is fully expected to play tomorrow. The one piece of news we’ll have to watch here is the status of Ryan Anderson, who has missed the past seven games with a hip injury. In his absence Luc Mbah a Moute and P.J. Tucker have picked up some additional playing time. On a smaller four game slate, no stone can be left unturned. So, we’ll have to give some consideration, albeit slight, to these guys. Over the past six games, Tucker has averaged 16.8 FD points and Mbah a Moute has averaged 17.4 FD points. This isn’t really earth-shattering production, but at minimal price tags, they make it a bit easier to get up to James Harden and Russell Westbrook.

Milwaukee @ Memphis (MIL -7.5, 205.5 total)

Milwaukee:

No impactful injuries to monitor.

Memphis:

If you’ve been playing DFS over the past few weeks, then you know just how banged up the Grizzlies have been. Their front-court is getting back to full strength and Marc Gasol will be back in action after resting on Saturday, but Andrew Harrison and Mario Chalmers are still expected to remain out for Monday night’s contest. If we run the CourtIQ for the Grizzlies over the past two weeks, we can see that Dillon Brooks has dominated the usage on offense at 33.8% across 97.7 minutes of action. In terms of fantasy production, Gasol leads the team with 1.19 FD points per minute. Here is the full usage breakdown:

grizz iq

Sacramento @ Oklahoma City (OKC -12.5, 210.0 total)

Sacramento:

Willie Cauley-Stein and De’Aaron Fox both returned to action on Sunday night, while Skal Labissiere sat out again with his hip injury. The return of Cauley-Stein and Fox knocks down the value of both Frank Mason and Kostas Koufos. Another thing to be cognizant of here is the fact that the Kings will be playing on the second half of a back-to-back set on Monday night. Due to this, players like Vince Carter, Zach Randolph, and Garrett Temple will all be rest candidates in this game. For the sake of getting some sort of usage picture, I’ve run the Kings’ CourtIQ with Labissiere, Carter, Randolph, and Temple off the floor over the past month. Be sure to check out the news tomorrow prior to tip off. With only four games on the slate, every piece of news regarding injuries and rest is crucial.

kings iq

Oklahoma City:

No impactful injuries to monitor.

Miami @ Portland (POR -6.0, 208.5 total)

Miami:

Dwayne Wade tweaked his hamstring in Saturday night’s game and isn’t expected to play on Monday. Wade mustered 15 minutes of action before exiting and from there Wayne Ellington was the biggest beneficiary, posting 25.6 FD points in 24.5 minutes of action. Rodney McGruder also posted 17.5 FD points in 20.3 minutes. Both players will see small bumps, while Justice Winslow should also see a slight uptick in usage with the second unit. Another situation to monitor here is the status of Hassan Whiteside, who missed Saturday’s contest with a hip injury. In his absence, Bam Adebayo slid into the starting lineup, while James Johnson and Kelly Olynyk posted some big stat lines. In the event that Wade and Whiteside both miss this game, here is what the usage has looked like over the past two weeks with both of these players off the floor:

heat iq

Portland:

No impactful injuries to monitor.

Listen to Lineup Logic’s NBA DFS Podcast >>

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