NBA DFS

Friday NBA DFS: Injuries and Implications (3/15)

jayson-tatum-a36f4b955a2936bb

The injury-plagued Celtics could use a few big performances from Jayson Tatum down the stretch. (photo via MassLive.com)

Friday’s NBA main slate on FanDuel and DraftKings features nine games. In this preview for tonight’s NBA DFS slate, we will cover notable statistics regarding players, teams, rotations, etc. and how these will effect the strategy that goes into building a NBA DFS team.

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Boston @ Orlando

Boston:

The Celtics are dealing with a laundry list of injuries heading into Friday night’s game. Marcus Smart could be out for the season, Kyrie Irving is doubtful, Al Horford is listed as day-to-day, and Jaylen Brown is out with a concussion. With all of these players off the floor, the Celtics will look a lot different over the next few days (or weeks?) If we pull them all of the floor using CourtIQ, Jayson Tatum dominates the offense with a 32.3% usage rate across 83.4 minutes of action. We’ll also have to consider Marcus Morris, Terry Rozier, and Greg Monroe. Here is a full look at the usage breakdown for the injury-ravaged Celtics.

celtics iq

Orlando:

Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier are both extremely likely to remain out of the Magic lineup on Friday night. In their absence, Jonathan Simmons has stood out as the biggest beneficiary putting up 34.5 FD points or more in three of the past four games – the other was a 9.2 FD point bust against the Spurs. He’s priced up, but he might be able to take advantage of an injured Celtics team. Another player to look at here is Nikola Vucevic, who should be able to dominate Greg Monroe if Al Horford can’t play in this game.

Brooklyn @ Philadelphia

Brooklyn:

Allen Crabbe is currently questionable for Friday night’s game with an illness. If he is unable to play, we can expect a bump in minutes for Joe Harris off the bench. In the front court, Jarrett Allen will return to the starting lineup, which will shift Dante Cunningham back to the bench.

Philadelphia:

No impactful injuries to monitor.

Dallas @ Toronto

Dallas:

With Wesley Matthews out for the season, the Mavericks will take an extended look at Yogi Ferrell, who played 28 minutes at shooting guard on Tuesday night. This isn’t the best situation to attack from a matchup standpoint, but we can probably expect minutes in the 30s for Dennis Smith Jr. and Yogi, while Kyle Collinsworth and J.J. Barea will both see 20-22 minutes off the bench.

Toronto:

O.G. Anunoby continues to be out of the lineup, which will contunue to give Malcolm Miller some extended run in the starting lineup. He’s obviously not the most fantasy relevant player and if anything, we’re considering a flyer on someone like C.J. Miles in this matchup.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Oklahoma City

Los Angeles Clippers:

With Danilo Gallinari and Avery Bradley out of the lineup, Sindarius Thornwell will continue to play 30 minutes in the Clippers starting lineup. However, Thornwell doesn’t command much usage or post much fantasy-wise. If anything, DeAndre Jordan has benefited the most recently and he has been posting monster lines with these players out of the lineup. With the Clippers traveling to Oklahoma City, I will likely be limiting my exposure to players like Lou Williams, Austin Rivers, and Jordan.

Oklahoma City:

Steven Adams and Paul George are both questionable for Friday night’s game with injuries. If both players miss this game then secondary Thunder players like Corey Brewer and Jerami Grant will see a nice uptick in fantasy production. If we pull the Court IQ over the past four weeks, Russell Westbrook averages a ridiculous 1.71 FD points per minute and has a 47.8% usage rate in 13 minutes. It’s a VERY small sample, but he would be close to a must start. The full usage breakdown is below:

thunder iq

Sacramento @ Golden State

Sacramento:

Skal Labissiere missed Wednesday night’s game against the Heat and should be considered questionable for Friday’s contest. In his absence on Wednesday, Zach Randolph put up 38.8 FD points in 33 minutes of action. He would be an interesting streaming option at a $6,000 price tag. Other than that, Willie Cauley-Stein would be locked into heavy minutes in an up-tempo matchup, while Garrett Temple could see some extended run if the Warriors decide to play some small ball.

Golden State:

The Warriors are going to be a tough team to peg on Friday night. First – this is a 10:30 start. Second – on top of Steph Curry and Klay Thompson being out, Kevin Durant is questionable and we might not get news on him before lock. In the event that we do, we at least know that Draymond Green is probably to play. David West is also targeting this game for his return. In the event that Durant is ruled out, here is what the Warriors usage and production looks like:

warriors iq

Miami @ Los Angeles Lakers

Miami:

The Heat are coming into this game a bit banged up, as Josh Richardson, Hassan Whiteside, and Dwayne Wade could all miss this game. In Wednesday night’s game, James Johnson and Bam Adebayo started and posted strong games, putting up 47.5 FD points and 29.7 FD points respectively. They would both be strong streaming options against the Lakers on Friday night. Additionally, Kelly Olynyk would see big minutes off the bench.

Los Angeles Lakers:

Brandon Ingram will remain out for Friday night’s game, while Kyle Kuzma is questionable. Assuming both players are out, we’ll get a pretty similar rotation to what we saw on Tuesday night. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will play alongside Julius Randle at forward, while Isaiah Thomas will play some heavy minutes off the bench – he logged 37 on Tuesday night. Additionally, Travis Wear and Alex Caruso will see 16-20 minutes off the bench.

 

Listen to Lineup Logic’s NBA DFS Podcast >>

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