NFL DFS Strategy

Seven Up/Down

By Mike Alexander, @Roto-Wan on Twitter.

Week one of the NFL season has arrived. Every week I put out seven players that I think are in better than normal situations and seven players set to struggle. Good luck this season!

UP

  • QB: Matthew Stafford. So reliable at home. His 2017 home split was 17/3 TD/INT. Stafford also gets a worse than average opponent in the Jets. I expect a line in 300/3 territory and like both of his outside receivers (Jones/Golladay) to catch a TD.
  • RB: Kareem Hunt. The Chargers were an extreme reverse funnel defense last season. Their secondary is one of the strongest in the league. It should only get better with the addition of rookie safety Derwin James. The only room for KC to work will likely be through Hunt. The biggest part of Hunt’s 2017 inconsistency was lack of usage. That shouldn’t be an issue here, barring Andy Reid being overly stubborn.
  • RB: Alex Collins. The Bills look like a bit of a dumpster this season. Particularly on offense where they’ll start Nathan Peterman Sunday. On the road and facing the Ravens solid defense is going to equate to an abundance of opportunity for Collins. Down the stretch last season, Collins became an RB1 while gaining the trust of the coaching staff.
  • WR: A.J. Green. Indy lacks talent all over the defensive side of the ball. People forget just how dominant AJG can be after a frustrating 2017 season. That should be fully on display at Indianapolis in the dome.
  • WR: Kenny Stills. With DeVante Parker out this week Stills is the only receiver with any existing rapport with Ryan Tannehill. Stills can be a bit boom or bust. Last year the Titans produced more WR1 weeks than anyone. Their defense should improve with the coaching changes, just not in week one.
  • TE: Nick Vannett. Vannett replaces Jimmy Graham who was the Seahawks main TD threat last year. He’s obviously not on Jimmy’s level in the red zone, but the signs from the preseason point to that dependence on the tight end continuing.
  • DEF: New Orleans Saints. The Buccaneers will roll Ryan Fitzpatrick out at QB. Fitz has zero issue forcing things in the course of a game. A good NOLA secondary and improved pass rush create excellent turnover opportunities as the Saints pile on points.

Down

  • QB: Dak Prescott. The wheels really fell off for Prescott when the Dallas offensive line struggled last season. That could be the case to start 2018 with question marks and health concerns at every OL position.
  • RB: Adrian Peterson. Not that much to like for AP as a road dog facing one of the most stout run defenses from 2017. His shrinking yards per carry makes him a fade in any non-plus matchup.
  • RB: Chris Carson. Rashaad Penny is practicing. Seattle is facing a Denver defense that is still very solid, especially vs the run. The Seahawks offensive line did nothing to get better. The only production from them will continue to be Russell Wilson.
  • WR: Doug Baldwin. A gimp knee, on the road, and facing Chris Harris, Jr. There isn’t a single thing to get excited about with Baldwin’s prospects for week one.
  • WR: Amari Cooper. LA doubled down on their secondary this off-season. Cooper also has a tendency to disappear at times. I’m sitting him this week with any other viable option.
  • TE: David Njoku. Pittsburgh was one of the strongest teams against opposing tight end production. Njoku is still raw despite the off-season buzz.
  • DEF: Buffalo Bills. The Bills were not good on the road. They arguably lost talent on both sides. Nathan Peterman could end up putting them on a short field too often.

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