NFL DFS Strategy

Fanduel Tournament Plays – Week 3

Hey LineupLogic listeners!  Here are my favorite low-owned plays for week 3 of the 2018 NFL season. I will be including a lineup at the end of the article that I will be entering in the NFL Sunday Million on Fanduel.

Quarterbacks

Deshaun Watson $7,700 – Watson is playing in his home opener against the “second best” NFL pass defense. The Giants have yet to play against a QB with the kind of weapons Watson has and they are without Olivier Vernon and Eli Apple this week. The Texans haven’t been able to block for Watson, but I think that Watson should have a little more time against the Giants weak pass rush.

Jared Goff $7,600 – I like Goff this week in a game that could be close and he may be needed to throw more often than he had to in weeks one and two. He has plenty of capable receivers and the Chargers allowed the Bills to score 20 points on them last week. Goff has 4 touchdown upside in what could end up being a pass heavy game.

Carson Wentz $7,400 – This is the perfect time to play Wentz. Well, not perfect because I am just as worried as most about his return from injury. However, he is perfect to play in a GPP this week. I have only heard people saying that they are concerned and to stay away from Wentz this week, but Wentz has 4 touchdown upside anytime he steps on a field. I love his upside, his price and the Eagles’ implied team total in this game.

Running Backs

Ezekiel Elliot $8,200 – Everybody equates Seattle with an amazing defense. This year has been different with all the losses Seattle has suffered over the offseason. The Seahawks have allowed an average of 25 rushing attempts per game and 232 rushing yards this season. The reason the rushing attempts is important is because Elliot has averaged 16 rushing attempts per game this year, but has averaged 22.5 attempts per game during his career. I suspect Elliot will get back to being a bell cow in this game that should be close and put up one or two scores.

Kareem Hunt $7,900 – There are a lot of lower priced options at running back that I feel will be popular this week and I think Hunt will go lower owned than he should. Tevin Coleman, Corey Clement and Latavius Murray will no doubt be heavily owned and Hunt has the highest upside of the group. The 49ers have been average against the run this year and they are getting Reuben Foster back this week, but I suspect the Chiefs get an early lead and feed the ball to Hunt a lot throughout the game.

Ito Smith $4,500 – Ahh, the punt of all punts. If you love the chalk this week, but need a super contrarian GPP play, why not throw in Ito Smith? Ito had 10 touches against the Panthers last week, but here’s the thing, 6 of those touches game inside the red zone. He has a lot of risk due to being a 2nd string RB, but the red zone touches are very encouraging. If you want a guy at 0.1 percent ownership with touchdown upside, join me by taking Ito in one of your lines this weekend.

Wide Receivers

Odell Beckham Jr. $8,300 – I think the Giants will almost certainly be playing from behind this whole game and Beckham should be the beneficiary in the passing game. Beckham has higher upside than a majority of the receivers on this slate and he’s very low priced given his talent. My main concern is the garbage pile he has at QB in Eli, but I’m hoping Beckham get a monstrous number of chances and red zone targets in this game.

Keenan Allen $8,000 – Like I mentioned earlier, I think this game could end up being a shootout and Allen would be the main beneficiary. This is another situation similar to OBJ where the losing team’s WR1 could end up having a big game. Both guys dipped down in targets last week and they should be due for some positive regression in the coming weeks. Allen is another guy with 2 TD upside and is the most effective player in this offense.

Calvin Ridley $5,000 – I know Marshon Lattimore has performed poorly this season compared to his rookie campaign, but there is always a chance of positive regression. After a solid week 2, Ridley could very well be the next guy up in Matt Ryan’s reads. Ridley is explosive and ran solid routes last week and could be in line for more targets this week in what should be a high scoring game.

Geronimo Allison $5,000 – Allison is one of my favorite cheap guys this week. He gets consistent targets and catches most of the balls thrown his way. He doesn’t carry as much upside as a guy like Calvin Ridley, but having a QB like Aaron Rodgers can give you just as much upside as any wideout in the league.

Tyler Boyd $4,700 – Last week was great for Boyd getting 6 receptions on 9 targets and one touchdown. I don’t see him receiving quite as many targets this week, but he seems like he’s becoming one of Andy Dalton’s favorite targets. He doesn’t have the greatest matchup this week against the Panthers, but he also didn’t have a great matchup last week when he faced the Ravens. Boyd is a decent option if you’re looking to spend near minimum on a wideout who gets consistent targets.

Tight Ends

George Kittle $5,800 – Everybody thought Kittle would go off last week and because of that, he was very heavily owned. Recency bias will make Kittle go overlooked and he has an even better chance to go off this week with the game script looking to be in his favor.

Ian Thomas $4,000 – This pick is purely based on the low price and seemingly good matchup. Thomas is facing the Bengals, who have allowed an average of 10 receptions, 99 yards and a TD to the tight end position this year. My only hesitation is that the teams he’s faced use multiple tight ends, so the stats could be skewed. The Colts use 2 tight ends, Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron, and the Ravens use 3 tight ends, Nick Boyle, Max Williams and Mark Andrews. This is the only reason I’m not rolling out Ian Thomas as my main TE this week.

 

Lineup

IMG_0696

 

If you feel this lineup is too risky, here’s a second option.

Lineup 2

IMG_0697 2

 

That’s it for my Week 2 tournament plays. Follow me on Twitter @joejberg for more fantasy information and feel free to hit me up with any fantasy related questions or suggestions for these articles you may have. Thank you for reading and have a fun and profit filled DFS weekend!

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