NFL DFS Strategy

Kwafo’s Quick Thoughts: NFL Week 4

Week Four begins the separation in the league and we now have actionable data to make some assumptions on.  Here are a few quick thoughts as you set lineups for Week 4:

My Core:

  • DeShaun Watson. He performed well late last week, and the stakes are high for his Texans team to avoid going to 0-4. The Colts Pass D is ranked middle of the pack in terms of yds allowed and passer rating  and is exploitable. Expect him to find Nuke Hopkins and Will Fuller early and often.
  • Melvin Gordon. In a game that Vegas seems to think will be a blowout, that would set up for a favorable game script for Gordon against the weak 49er D. Lock him in all lineups.
  • Allen Robinson- Mitchell Trubisky’s favorite target to lock on is a stone-cold lock in the matchup against Tampa Bay’s third worst pass defense in terms of yards allowed per game and passer rating. Do yourself a solid and lock him in all your lineups.

Sleepers:

  • David Johnson-On the surface, a matchup with the Seahawks and a rookie QB to boot seem daunting, but if Arizona has any chance to win this game it must rely on the uber talented running back. I think he serves as a security blanket for young Josh Rosen and sets up for a big day.
  • Kenny Stills-A favorite of the new look Dolphins offense and Ryan Tannehill, he has a favorable matchup against a patchwork secondary in New England. Fire him up this week.
  • Andy Dalton-The game in Atlanta will be a shootout and Dalton serves as a low risk high upside way to get exposure to the matchup. He has found an alternative to AJ Green in Tyler Boyd and with the running game likely led by Gio Bernard there are plenty of weapons for Dalton to thrive.

Fantasy Fade:

  • Ryan Fitzpatrick-His run was fun while it lasted but I will let others chase the 400 yd games. No reason to play him on the road against the stingy Bears’ Defense.
  • The Entire Jets offense. Jacksonville. At home. Off a loss. Bad things in store for the Jets in this one. Stay far away.
  • Baker Mayfield. The hype is all around this kid and he has talent and had extra film time for this matchup against Oakland. Oakland is desperate and should devise a scheme to confuse the rookie in his first official start on the road in a tough environment.

Vegas Baby:

Here are some interesting Vegas line movements to watch for as we head to Sunday:

  • Cincinnati at Atlanta- the over /under has moved 5 points to now a 53-point mark. Load up here on both sides of this game.
  • Seattle at Arizona has seen the over/under move 1.5 points since early in the week. Still a low total but it’s a possible source of differentiation on this slate.

Let’s get in the green this week!  If you have questions, please reach out to me on twitter @Spartanzilla or in the Lineup Logic Slack Chat. Thanks for reading!

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s