Hey LineupLogic listeners! This week I will be breaking down my favorite cash and tournament plays. I will also include a couple of lineups at the end of the article that I will be using this weekend.
Matt Ryan $8,100 – I don’t like Ryan all that much this week as a high-upside play, but I think he has a solid floor. This game has the highest over/under on the slate and Ryan has plenty of weapons to hit the 2-2.5x value needed for cash games.
Andy Dalton $7,400 – I think Dalton is also a good pick for cash games this week for the same reasons as Ryan. I would set his floor around 15 Fanduel points which is just enough to hit 2x value. I think he has a decent ceiling for his price as well seeing as the Falcons are giving up the 4th most fantasy points to quarterbacks so far this season.
Ryan Tannehill $6,800 – Honestly, I don’t know why I don’t hear people talking about Tannehill more. He is averaging almost 3 times value on his price and he should have a positive game script. The Patriots are allowing the 11th most Fanduel points to QBs this year and Tannehill only needs 17 points to hit 2.5x value. That’s 250 passing yards, 1 TD and 30 rushing yards. If you’re looking to pay up at other positions, Tannehill seems pretty safe to me.
Deshaun Watson $7,600 – Watson could also be used in cash games, but I don’t feel as safe with him as I do the other options listed for the following reasons. 1.) The Colts have far surpassed expectations on defense this season. 2.) Watson has absolutely no offensive line and they struggled against a weak Giants defensive front last weekend. 3.) If the Texans get an early lead, I can see them feeding Lamar Miller and Alfred Blue to limit the Colts’ time of possession.
Ryan Fitzpatrick $7,400 – This is strictly a leverage play and let me tell you what I’m getting at before you write me off. The Bears defense will be very highly owned, this we know. They will also be missing CB Prince Amukamara which may opens some things up in the passing game. Fitzpatrick has been one of the hottest quarterbacks in fantasy next to Patrick Mahomes and he will be fighting for his job. Is it really that unreasonable to expect a 300yd/2td/1int stat line with 30 rushing yards? That’s what he needs to hit 3x value this week. If you decide to take a risk on Fitzpatrick in one of your lines and he goes off once again, it will catapult you up the rankings while everybody who took the Bears defense drops.
Carson Wentz $7,300 – Wentz is going up against the Titans, who have been solid on defense this year. However, the Titans have yet to face an offensive line that is as stout as the Eagles’. Alshon Jeffery should be returning this week which would give Wentz the weapons needed to pick apart the Titans defense at low ownership.
Alvin Kamara $9,100 – This game has the second highest implied total on the slate and the Saints should be playing from ahead. Even if they somehow are playing from behind, Kamara will still be heavily involved. There’s no need to overthink it.
Tevin Coleman $7,300 – This is another scenario with a high implied total (the highest on the slate) and the Coleman will be heavily involved in the offense. The Bengals have struggled a lot against opposing running backs and have allowed the 10th most Fanduel points to the position. Coleman is an excellent play in an excellent matchup.
Giovanni Bernard $6,400 – Bernard will probably be the second highest owned player on the slate, next to Alvin Kamara, and for a good reason. He’s cheap, he’s in a positive game script, his floor is high and he’s getting tons of volume. His price is way too cheap to avoid him in cash games this weekend.
Ekeziel Elliot $8,200 – I love love love Zeke this week against an atrocious Lions run defense. The Cowboys can’t pass the ball to save their lives and will need Elliot to carry the ball 20-30 times in order to stay competitive in this game. The Lions are allowing 6.3 yards per carry through the first 3 games and have allowed a touchdown to a running back in each of those games as well. Zeke is on a tear, averaging 5.7 yards per carry and has received the most targets on the team. He’s their only hope to get a win and it’s very plausible for him to get into the end zone multiple times this weekend.
David Johnson $7,600 – This pick is based on Johnson’s talent, matchup and situation. I genuinely believe Johnson has a chance of being in the Millionaire Maker winning lineup this week. His talent is unquestionable, but has been playing with a terrible coach behind a terrible offensive line. Those things haven’t changed, but what has changed is his quarterback situation which I believe is the key to Johnson’s success. Rosen is starting his first NFL game against a defense that has been solid against the pass and has struggled against the run. On pass plays, Rosen will often need to check down to Johnson giving numerous opportunities for big yardage plays and touchdown potential. Sam Bradford ruined this offense, but a new QB should help rally this offense and give new life to Johnson and this team as a whole. He’s very risky and I’m not saying he’s a sure bet by any means, but completely disregarding DJ may be a mistake.
James White $6,100 – With Rex Burkhead out, Sony Michel will get his opportunities. However, I don’t think that is the way to target this defense from the running back position. James White has been ridiculously consistent this year and will receive additional snaps without Burkhead. The Dolphins have allowed the 7th most receiving yards and the 8th most receptions to backs on the season. This game could end up being very fast paced and James White is far more familiar with the offense than Sony. White has 20 point upside in this seemingly bad matchup.
Aaron Jones $5,500 – Jones is my contrarian pick to score touchdown this week. He will be insanely low owned and could be a straight up bust. My reasoning is based on game script and some words from Aaron Rodgers. That may sound confusing, but I will get to that in a second. First, let me talk about the game script. The Bills are not going to come in with another upset this week. I promise you, that will not happen. Last week’s win against the Vikings was a ridiculous fluke and the Packers cannot and will not let the same thing happen to them. The Packers should have a sizable lead going into the 4th quarter allowing them to run the ball to run out the clock. Aaron Jones will be the guy they use to do this as he is by far the most talented back they have on the roster. Now to get to my point of Aaron Rodgers’ kind words. Here is a quote from the man himself. “When you bring 33 back on the field like we did last week, you kind of forget the type of dynamic abilities he can bring to a game with his running style, Rodgers said. “He’s a different type of runner than we’ve had here in a while. You’ve gotta find ways to get him the ball.” I firmly believe that the Packers intend of heavily involving Jones this weekend and getting a guy with this kind of talent at this price and low-ownership is rare. He could very well become the Calvin Ridley of week 4.
Michael Thomas $9,000 – I don’t think I need to say a whole lot about Michael Thomas. He’s one of the two main targets in this offense and has a 95% catch rate. His floor is as high as anybody’s.
Jarvis Landry $7,000 – He’s the 11th highest priced receiver with the 6th most targets of all wideouts. The upgrade to Baker Mayfield only helps his floor. Lock him in.
Sterling Shepard $6,200 – The injury to Evan Engram increases Shepard’s floor dramatically. The Giants will have to play catch up against the Saints poor defense and Shepard should see enough targets to easily hit value this week.
Tyler Boyd $5,800 – Boyd has averaged 8 targets and 20 FDP over the last two game. He is incredibly cheap for this kind of production and should continue to see consistent volume in this game which could end up being a very high scoring shootout.
Julio Jones $8,600 – It’s crazy to think of Julio Jones as a hit or miss option, but the emergence of Calvin Ridley is hindering his touchdown upside. I think Julio comes back strong in this game and my hope is that his price tag scares enough people off to get him at sub-10% ownership.
Mike Evans $7,900 – Evans is my guy to pair with Fitzpatrick in a tournament for ownership leverage this week. Evans is second to Michael Thomas in fantasy points per game this year and has scored in every game. The Bears rank around the middle (14th) of the league in average fanduel points allowed to wide receivers this year. Evans will need to be relied upon heavily if the Bucs want to win this game.
Corey Davis $5,400 – I’m going to throw Davis in a GPP for the same reason as I mentioned for David Johnson, talent. Davis was drafted as the 5th overall pick for a reason, this guy is an incredible talent. He is the number one receiver on a team with a struggling quarterback, but this week the Titans will need to rely on much more passing than they did last week. The Eagles have allowed the 11th most FDP to wideouts this season and Davis could easily see 10 plus targets. The Titans will not be able to run against the first ranked Eagles rush defense and Mariota is regaining some of the strength in his hand. I think Davis is the most likely person to score from this struggling offense and $5,400 is a bargain in this plus matchup.
Taylor Gabriel $5,000 – Anthony Miller has been ruled out this week which means there are a few extra targets to go around. Allen Robinson will probably soak up a few of them, but I really like Gabriel this week, especially at this low price. Tampa has really struggled against the pass this season and Gabriel has received 17 targets in his last two games. Trubisky has been spreading the ball around pretty well this year and Gabriel has been one of the main beneficiaries. In a game that could end up becoming a shootout, Gabriel is in the perfect situation to hit 3x value on his very cheap price tag.
Zach Ertz $7,000 – Ertz is a little pricier, but he’s the most targeted tight end in the league and has guaranteed volume each and every week.
Tyler Eifert $4,600 – Eifert has seen his snap share and targets increase week after week. This game should be high scoring and his cheap price will allow you to get the higher priced options you need this week.
Rob Gronkowski $8,100 – His price and lack of production make him seem like a stay away, but everybody knows that fading Gronk is never a good idea. This seems like a perfect bounce back spot where Gronk is at home with a high implied team total in a must-win situation. He has 2 touchdown upside this week.
David Njoku $5,200 – Njoku is another guy with massive upside this week. In the preseason, Mayfield had a 2 touchdown game and both were thrown to Njoku. Last week Njoku had 2 receptions and both came after Mayfield entered the game. On paper the Raiders may seem good against the tight end, but they have yet to play against a real receiving tight end. Njoku is a cheaper option with high upside with Baker under center.
LA Chargers $4,400 – The Chargers haven’t looked as great without Joey Bosa, but they have still been able to play well given their schedule. Vegas likes them to blow out the Niners who just lost Jimmy G for the season and they are one of the safest plays on the slate.
Jacksonville Jaguars $5,200 – They are very expensive which is why I believe they will go lower owned. Obviously everybody knows the Jags defense is one of the best in the league, but they are so much more expensive than all other defenses on the board. Defenses have averaged 10 fanduel points per game against the Jets and the Jaguars could easily come away with double that. Paying up for the Jags defense this week could very well win you a tournament.
Arizona Cardinals $4,000 – If you’re not looking to pay up for the Jags and want a lower owned defense, the Cardinals are my pick of the week. Despite having some tough matchups against some great offensive lines, the Cardinals have tallied 8 sacks (10th) this season. Luckily, this week they are at home against arguably one of the worst offensive lines, who have allowed more sacks than any other offensive line in the NFL. This is the kind of matchup that could make the Cardinals the best point per dollar defense in week 4.
That’s it for my Week 4 cash and tournament plays. Follow me on Twitter @joejberg for more fantasy information and feel free to hit me up with any fantasy related questions or suggestions for these articles you may have. Thank you for reading and have a fun and profit filled DFS weekend!
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